Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Novig
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
Athletic ClubDrawOsasuna
47¢28¢27¢
Novig does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Polymarket US
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
Athletic ClubDrawOsasuna
47¢29¢27¢
Polymarket US does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Where to bet this game
Odds for this matchup are not posted yet. These are the regulated US sportsbooks we partner with; the best price lands here the moment the books hang a line.
FanDuelBet $5, get $250 in bonus betsClaim →
FanaticsGet Up to $1,000 Matched in FanCashClaim →
BetRivers2nd Chance Bet up to $500 (PA) + 1x playthroughClaim →
UnderdogUp to $1,000 in bonus funds on your first depositClaim →
NovigDeposit $10, get $50 in Trade CreditsClaim →
RebetFree-to-play social sportsbook with sweepstakes prizesClaim →21+. New users. T&Cs apply. We may earn a commission when you sign up through these links.
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
OsasunaLWLWL
Athletic ClubWWWLDLa Liga table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 30 |
| Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 27 |
| Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| Sevilla | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Osasuna win, Athletic Club win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Who will win Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Osasuna have conceded 2.2 goals per league match over their last 10. Athletic Club have allowed 1. That gap is why Saturday at El Sadar deserves a bettor's attention. The twist is that our own rating still makes the home side a slight favorite, and no odds are posted yet. That gives us time to do the work before the market speaks.
The Matchup
Osasuna sit 16th of 20 in La Liga with 11 points from 11 matches and a goal difference of minus 11. Goal difference is goals scored minus goals allowed. Minus 11 in 11 games means they lose by about a goal on an average day. Their league form, newest first, reads L, L, W, L, D, with 1.1 goals scored per match over 10.
Athletic arrive in better shape. Their league form is W, W, L, D, D, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1 per match over 10. Across their last 4 matches in all competitions they won 3, lost 1, scored 13 and allowed 4. Osasuna have 27 games left to climb. The last meeting, 200 days ago, went against them.
How Soccer Betting Works
In the NFL, a moneyline (a bet on who wins outright) has two sides. Soccer has three: Osasuna win, Athletic win, or a draw. That is the three-way moneyline. The draw is its own bet, and if the match ends level, both win bets lose. So the better team can still cost you a ticket, because 1-1 is a common result.
Prices for this match are not posted, so we will not quote any. When they land, the three prices together will imply more than 100%. That extra is the vig, the book's built-in cut. Strip it out and you get the no-vig fair price, the market's honest estimate. You will also see against the spread (ATS), which in soccer means backing a team with a goal handicap.
What do the numbers say for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Start with per-game averages. Athletic take 14.8 shots, 4.1 on target, across 10 stored games, with 54.08% possession. Over their last 4 that rose to 18 shots (6 on target) per match against 10 faced, with 59% possession. Osasuna average 10.64 shots and 3.91 on target over 11 games with 45.92% possession, and allow 11 shots and 3.67 on target per game.
Betting records cut both ways. Osasuna are 3-2 ATS at home but 4-7 overall (11 games). Athletic are 1-3 ATS on the road and 4-6 overall (10 games). Totals sit near even: Athletic 5-5 over-under in 10, Osasuna 5-6 in 11. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives Osasuna 52% and Athletic 48% across 78 and 77 rated games. That is context only.
Where the Value Is
With no posted odds, we cannot compute a no-vig fair price yet, so here is how we will judge it. Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns on average if you made it over and over. A bet that wins half the time and pays $110 profit on a $100 stake earns $5 per bet on average. Pay $90 at the same odds and you lose $5.
We think Athletic win this more often than a near coin-flip rating suggests, because the shot and goal numbers lean their way. The risks are the draw and that 1-3 road ATS record. So we want Athletic at plus money, where a $100 bet wins at least $100. Shop every book. A small price gap separates a good bet from a bad one.
Where to watch Osasuna vs Athletic Club? Conditions in Pamplona
Kickoff is Saturday, November 7 at 12:30 PM ET on ESPN Deportes and ESPN+. El Sadar in Pamplona expects 51 F and a 2 mph southeast wind, so weather should not be a factor. Athletic have 5 days of rest and traveled 73 miles. Osasuna have 4 days of rest and come 344 miles from their last game in La Coruña. Neither side changes time zones.
The Pick
Athletic Club to win on the three-way moneyline at plus money or better, at whichever book posts the best number. If the price is shorter than even money, we pass, meaning we skip the bet. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
FREE · NO CARD · EVERY DAY
That was the Desk's read. Want the documented free play too?
Ross's free VIP play lands in your inbox whenever one is on the board, by 5 PM ET on weekdays and by noon ET on weekends. Every play is posted before the game and graded in public, win or lose. The Official board: 6 straight winning years.
Unsubscribe anytime in one tap. No spam, just the play and the receipts.
The Prediction
Osasuna concede 2.2 per league match, and Athletic are creating chances at a pace Osasuna have not matched. We expect Athletic to own the ball and the shot count, with Osasuna dangerous in spurts at home. Projected score: Osasuna 1, Athletic Club 2. A draw is the live danger, which is exactly why the price matters. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
More La Liga matchups
Osasuna vs Athletic Club FAQ
Who is favored in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Osasuna's leaky defense meets an Athletic Club attack that keeps piling up shots, and we lean the visitors at plus money once prices post.
Where to watch Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club airs on ESPN Deportes and ESPN+. The La Liga match kicks off Saturday, November 7 at 12:30 PM ET from El Sadar in Pamplona, Spain.
What time does Osasuna vs Athletic Club start?
Kickoff is Saturday, November 7 at 12:30 PM ET. The forecast at El Sadar in Pamplona calls for 51 F with a light 2 mph wind from the southeast, so conditions should be calm for the match.
How have Osasuna and Athletic Club played in La Liga this season?
Osasuna sit 16th of 20 with 11 points from 11 matches and a minus 11 goal difference, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.2 per match over their last 10. Athletic Club's league form is W, W, L, D, D, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1 per match over 10.
Can you bet on a draw in La Liga?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these La Liga picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits