Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Match result$8.3k traded · 288 trades
AlavésDrawSevilla
Trades
Money
Polymarket
Match result$979 traded · 32 trades
AlavésDrawSevilla
Trades
Money
Light trading: $979 so far, percentages can swingNovig
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
AlavésDrawSevilla
23¢29¢51¢
Novig does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Polymarket US
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
AlavésDrawSevilla
24¢28¢51¢
Polymarket US does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Sevilla vs Alavés: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks we track Live prices as of 4:28 PM ET · 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Sevilla win | Draw | Alavés win |
|---|---|---|
| -105Bet at Fanatics → | +240Bet at DraftKings → | +330Bet at FanDuel → |
| Total goals 2.5: O +123 (betPARX) · U -159 (betPARX) | ||
What are the odds for Sevilla vs Alaves at each sportsbook?
As of 4:28 PM ET, Sevilla -105 on the moneyline and the total is 2.5, with 9 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Alaves ML | Sevilla ML | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +300 | -106 | O 2.5 +123 | U 2.5 -159 |
| BetMGM | +300 | -105 | O 2.5 +115 | U 2.5 -160 |
| betPARX | +300 | -106 | O 2.5 +123 | U 2.5 -159 |
| BetRivers | +300 | -106 | O 2.5 +123 | U 2.5 -159 |
| DraftKings | +300 | -105 | – | – |
| Fanatics | +310 | -105 | – | – |
| FanDuel | +330 | -115 | – | – |
| Hard Rock Bet | +300 | -105 | – | – |
| theScore Bet | +290 | -110 | – | – |
Prices from 9 sportsbooks we track, updated (8 min ago). Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
SevillaLWWLD
AlavésLDLLDLa Liga table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 30 |
| Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 |
| Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 27 |
| Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| Sevilla | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Sevilla win, Alavés win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Sevilla at -105 means you risk $105 to profit $100. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
A Home Favorite That Can't Reach Plus Money
Sevilla FC sits sixth in La Liga and hosts a team without a league win in five tries. It still can't reach plus money. The best price is -105, meaning you risk $105 to win $100, against a Deportivo Alavés side that has gone LDLLD. That price is a warning. Soccer has a third result that beats both win bets, and Friday at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium tests whether the market has every outcome priced right.
How Do Sevilla and Alavés Stack Up?
Sevilla is 6th of 20 with 17 points from 11 matches. Alavés is 12th with 12. Both carry a goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed) of -2, so the gap came from tight results, not domination. Sevilla's league form is LWLDL, one win in five. Alavés is LDLLD. Over their last 10, Sevilla scores 1.5 and concedes 1.8 per match.
Alavés scores 1.2 and concedes 1.7. The season per-game averages look like twins: 12.27 shots for Sevilla, 12.73 for Alavés, and 4.55 on target for both. Neither club lives on the ball (42.68% and 41.07% possession per game). Sevilla took a red card in its last match. The last meeting, 265 days ago, ended level.
How Soccer Betting Works: The Draw Is a Third Outcome
A moneyline is a straight bet on who wins, with no handicap. In soccer it is three-way: Sevilla, Alavés or a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. That third outcome is the trap. Bet Sevilla at -105 and a 1-1 finish loses. Same for an Alavés ticket. At the best prices, $100 earns $95.24 profit on Sevilla, $240 on the draw and $330 on Alavés. The market's no-vig read (the book's built-in fee stripped out) puts Sevilla at 49%, the draw at 27% and Alavés at 23%. Translation: the home favorite is more likely not to win than to win.
What Are the Odds for Sevilla vs Alavés?
Sevilla -105 at Fanatics implies 51.2%. Draw +240 at DraftKings implies 29.4%. Alavés +330 at FanDuel implies 23.3%. Those add to 103.9%. The extra 3.9% is the vig, and it survives even after shopping three books. Line shopping simply means taking each bet wherever it pays most. On the total (a bet on combined goals), Over 2.5 is +125 at betPARX, so three or more goals cashes it. That implies 44.4%. Under 2.5 is -160 at BetMGM, implying 61.5%. By our closing-line math, Sevilla is 7-4 over-under in 11 games and Alavés is 6-5 in 11.
Where the Value Is
Expected value (EV) is what a bet earns on average if you made it many times. Every best price is shorter than fair. By our math, $100 on Sevilla at -105 is worth about -$2.90, the draw about -$6.30 and Alavés about -$2.50. No moneyline bet clears the bar. Our rating, an Elo model, gives Sevilla 62% and Alavés 38%, but it has no draw slot, so it is context only.
The goals tell the better story. Sevilla's last 10 matches average 3.3 total goals (1.5 scored plus 1.8 allowed). Alavés's average 2.9. The over at +125 needs to hit only 44.4% of the time to break even. Our board posts no fair price on the total, so this is a lean that deserves a modest stake.
Where to Watch Sevilla vs Alaves, Plus Rest and Travel
Kickoff is Friday, November 6 at 3:00 PM ET. For anyone asking where to watch Sevilla vs Alaves, it airs on ESPN Deportes and ESPN+. Alavés arrives on 2 days of rest, playing game 3 of a road trip. Sevilla has 4 days of rest after 235 miles of travel from its last game (Getafe), with no time-zone change. Both clubs have played 3 matches in the last 14 days. We have no forecast, so no weather talk.
The Pick
Over 2.5 goals at +125 at betPARX. The number matters. At +110 the break-even climbs to 47.6%, so shop first. We pass on all three moneyline prices. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not a documented official play.
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The Prediction
Sevilla 2-1. Both defenses leak 1.7 to 1.8 goals per match, both attacks average 4.55 shots on target per game, and Sevilla has the extra rest at home. We still would not lay -105 on it, because one late equalizer sinks that ticket. Three goals is the cleaner path. That is the Desk's read on this number; the free daily play and the $1 trial sit right below as the natural next step.
More La Liga matchups
Sevilla vs Alavés FAQ
Who is favored in Sevilla vs Alavés?
Sevilla is the market favorite at -105 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with Alavés at +330. The draw is priced at +240. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
What time does Sevilla vs Alaves start?
Kickoff is Friday, November 6 at 3:00 PM ET on ESPN Deportes and ESPN+. Sevilla comes in on 4 days of rest, while Alavés has 2 days of rest and is playing game 3 of a road trip.
What are the odds for Sevilla vs Alaves?
Best prices across tracked US sportsbooks: Sevilla -105 at Fanatics, the draw +240 at DraftKings and Alavés +330 at FanDuel. On total goals, Over 2.5 is +125 at betPARX and Under 2.5 is -160 at BetMGM. The market's no-vig read is Sevilla 49%, draw 27%, Alavés 23%.
When did Sevilla and Alavés last meet?
The clubs last met 265 days before this match, and that game ended in a draw. Coming in, Sevilla sits 6th in La Liga with 17 points from 11 matches, and Alavés is 12th with 12 points.
Can you bet on a draw in La Liga?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these La Liga picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · FanDuel betting splits