Super Bowl Odds 2027: Every Team's Price for LXI

A Title Race With No Runaway Favorite

Two teams sit at +600 and nobody is shorter. The Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers share the top of the Super Bowl board, yet the market gives each only about a 14% chance. It expects the trophy to land somewhere else roughly 86% of the time. When the race is this open, the price you take matters as much as the team you pick.

The Favorites

Quick translation. American odds like +600 show profit on a $100 bet. That means $100 on the Bills at +600 (DraftKings) or the 49ers at +600 (FanDuel) pays $600 profit if they win it all. To turn odds into an implied probability, the chance the price assumes, divide 100 by the odds plus 100. That gives 14.3% for each co-favorite. The Chicago Bears are next at +750 at FanDuel, about 11.8%.

Then come the Jacksonville Jaguars at +1100 (theScore Bet, 8.3%), the Kansas City Chiefs at +1200 (FanDuel, 7.7%) and the Los Angeles Rams at +1300 (FanDuel, 7.1%). Look at the conference split. The NFC holds the 49ers, Bears and Rams, so those three may have to go through each other. In the AFC, Buffalo stands alone at the top and Jacksonville is the clear second choice.

How Futures Betting Works

A futures bet is a season-long wager on an outcome settled later, here the Super Bowl champion. Your money is tied up until February, and the vig, the bookmaker's built-in cut, runs heavier than on a single game. A standard spread at -110 on both sides totals about 104.8% implied. Add up just these 16 teams, using the best price for each, and you already reach about 102.5%.

The other half of the league has prices too. A fair board would total exactly 100% across all 32 teams, so everything above that is the house's edge. That is why shopping matters even more here. The best Jaguars number is +1100 at theScore Bet. If another book hung +900, the same $100 would pay $200 less for the identical result.

Where the Value Is

Expected value, or EV, is what a bet earns on average if you could make it many times. At +1100, a $100 Jaguars ticket must cash 8.3% of the time to break even. If their real chance is 8%, it is about minus $4. The edge lives in that narrow band, so we want a structural reason. The board gives us one.

The AFC teams listed total about 49.9% implied, with Buffalo at 14.3% and nobody else above 8.3%. The NFC totals about 52.6% and stacks three contenders near the top. Every team has to win its conference first, and Jacksonville is priced as the second-best path out of the less crowded side while paying nearly double the Bills' number.

The Long Shots

The Pittsburgh Steelers at +4000 (theScore Bet), Houston Texans at +5000 (BetMGM) and Dallas Cowboys at +6600 (BetMGM) are the big numbers. A $100 Cowboys ticket pays $6,600, but the implied chance is about 1.5%. The case is simple: the playoffs are single elimination, and one hot run can carry anyone. The caution is just as simple. Long shots tend to carry a bigger share of the vig because bettors love big payouts, and a famous brand like Dallas draws money regardless of the number. If you play one, keep it small and take only the best price.

The Bottom Line

Our best futures value on this board is the Jacksonville Jaguars at +1100 at theScore Bet. The price implies 8.3%, it is the second-shortest number in the AFC, and it pays nearly twice a Bills ticket for the team the market already rates as Buffalo's top conference challenger. This is Desk analysis, not an official play, and no futures ticket is safe.

If your number for Jacksonville is above 8.3%, this is the bet. If it is not, pass, and never settle for less than the best price. That is our read on the long view, and for a shorter horizon the Desk posts a documented free daily play right below.