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Kentucky Wildcats play at Missouri Tigers in college football on Saturday, November 21, at Memorial Stadium. As of 11:14 AM ET, Missouri are the moneyline favorite at -199 and the total is 50.5. Prices come from 4 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Missouri ML. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 4 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has a market on this game that we can match, so there is no exchange buyer data to show.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Kentucky Wildcats | Missouri Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +176Bet at FanDuel → | -199Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 11:14 AM ET, Missouri -199 on the moneyline and the total is 50.5, with 4 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Kentucky ML | Missouri ML | Kentucky spread | Missouri spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +176 | -215 | +5.5 -105 | -5.5 -115 | O 50.5 -110 | U 50.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | +170 | -205 | – | – | – | – |
| Fliff | +170 | -215 | – | – | – | – |
| Novig | +170 | -199 | – | – | – | – |
Prices from 4 sportsbooks we track, updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Kentucky Wildcats3rd in the Southeastern ConferenceMissouri Tigers9th in the Southeastern Conference
Austin Simmons (MIZ)175/283, 2,204 YDS, 18 TD, 2 INT (9 GP)
Kenny Minchey (UK)186/266, 1,979 YDS, 14 TD, 2 INT (9 GP)The No. 13 team in the AP poll is a big underdog. The Kentucky Wildcats are 7-2 and 3rd of 16 in the Southeastern Conference, yet the betting market still makes the Missouri Tigers (6-3, 9th of 16) a clear favorite at home. That gap between the record and the price is the whole puzzle of Kentucky vs Missouri. Kickoff is Saturday, November 21 at 7:30 PM ET on SEC Network at Memorial Stadium, Week 12 of the 2026 regular season. (Records are as of November 13.)
Why is the better record the underdog? The ratings disagree with the standings. Elo, a power rating that moves up or down after every result, has Missouri at 1767 and Kentucky at 1584. That is a real gap. Predicted points added per play (PPA) measures how many points an average snap adds or takes away.
On offense Kentucky is slightly better, 0.19 to 0.16, over nine games each. On defense, where lower is better, Missouri allows 0.01 per play and Kentucky allows 0.08. That defensive edge is a big reason the market leans Missouri. Last season's final SP+ rating (a preseason starting point, not this year's form) was 14.4 for Missouri and 1.8 for Kentucky.
Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons has played all nine games and averages 244.9 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions per game (2,204 yards, 18 TDs, 2 INTs on the season). Kentucky's Kenny Minchey has also played all nine games and averages 219.9 yards, 1.6 touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions per game, completing 20.7 of 29.6 throws per game. Both have protected the ball over nine games. The key test: Minchey's efficient offense against a Missouri defense that grades much stingier per play.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Missouri is the favorite at -186, best at Kalshi. A $100 bet there profits $50.09 after the book's fee. To break even (not lose money over time), it has to win 66.6% of the time. Kentucky is the underdog at +176, best at FanDuel. A $100 bet profits $176.00 and needs to win 36.2% of the time to break even.
Books build in a cut called the vig. Strip it out and the market reads about 66% Missouri, 34% Kentucky. If you searched for the Kentucky vs Missouri spread, the books we track show no spread price yet. The total (combined points) sits at 50.5, but no Over or Under price is posted, so we will not grade it. Always shop several books; the best number is our edge.
Expected value is your average result per bet if you made it many times. Honest bottom line: neither side clears the bar. Missouri is just the smaller overpay.
We side with Missouri on the moneyline at -186 at Kalshi, as a read and not a value play. The defensive PPA gap and the Elo gap both point the same way. A shorter price, like -180, would be better. A longer one, like -200, is a pass. This is the Desk's analysis only, not an official play.
We expect Missouri's defense to slow Kentucky just enough in the second half. Projected score: Missouri 27, Kentucky 23. That adds up to 50 points, a hair under the 50.5 total, but with no Over or Under price posted, that is a note, not a bet. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Missouri is the market favorite at -199 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Kentucky at +176. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Kentucky vs Missouri airs on SEC Network. Kickoff is Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET at Memorial Stadium, home of the Missouri Tigers. It is a Week 12 game in the 2026 college football regular season.
The Kentucky Wildcats at Missouri Tigers game kicks off Saturday, November 21, 2026 at 7:30 PM Eastern time. The broadcast is on SEC Network, and the game is played at Memorial Stadium.
Missouri is the favorite at -186 (best at Kalshi), and Kentucky is the underdog at +176 (best at FanDuel). With the bookmaker's cut removed, the market reads that as about 66% Missouri and 34% Kentucky, even though Kentucky is ranked No. 13 in the AP poll.
A ranked 7-2 Kentucky team walks into Memorial Stadium as a clear underdog to 6-3 Missouri, and the price gap is the story. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 50.5. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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