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Florida State Seminoles play at Pittsburgh Panthers in college football on Friday, November 13, at Acrisure Stadium. As of 9:50 AM ET, Pittsburgh are 3.5-point favorites and the total is 52.5. Prices come from 16 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 16 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
Public is on the Over (87% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans the Under (94%).
| Book | BetsFlorida State Seminoles +3.5Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 | MoneyFlorida State Seminoles +3.5Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsFlorida State SeminolesPittsburgh Panthers | MoneyFlorida State SeminolesPittsburgh Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Florida State Seminoles (+142) / Pittsburgh Panthers (-170)) | ||
| BetMGM (Florida State Seminoles (+140) / Pittsburgh Panthers (-165)) | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 52.5Under 52.5 | MoneyOver 52.5Under 52.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Florida State Seminoles | Pittsburgh Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 | -3.5 |
| Total 52.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Florida State Seminoles | Pittsburgh Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +150Bet at Novig → exchange price | -156Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +3.5 -104Bet at Novig → exchange price | -3.5 +100Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 52.5 | O +105Bet at ProphetX → exchange price | U -110Bet at FanDuel → |
As of 9:50 AM ET, the spread is Pittsburgh -3.5 and the total is 52.5, with 16 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Florida State ML | Pittsburgh ML | Florida State spread | Pittsburgh spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +135 | -167 | +3.5 -117 | -3.5 -105 | O 52.5 -110 | U 52.5 -110 |
| bet365 | +144 | -169 | +3.5 -113 | -3.5 -107 | O 52.5 -110 | U 52.5 -110 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -165 | +3.5 -115 | -3.5 -105 | O 52.5 -105 | U 52.5 -112 |
| betPARX | +135 | -167 | +3.5 -117 | -3.5 -105 | O 52.5 -110 | U 52.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +135 | -167 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -106 | O 52.5 -112 | U 52.5 -112 |
| Caesars | +141 | -170 | +3.5 -114 | -3.5 -106 | O 52.5 -106 | U 52.5 -114 |
| Courtside | +145 | -166 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | O 52.5 -103 | U 52.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | +142 | -170 | +3.5 -118 | -3.5 -102 | O 52.5 -105 | U 52.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 | +3.5 -110 | -3.5 -110 | O 52.5 -105 | U 52.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | +140 | -170 | +3.5 -115 | -3.5 -105 | O 52.5 -110 | U 52.5 -110 |
Prices from 16 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Florida State Seminoles10th in the Atlantic Coast ConferencePittsburgh Panthers7th in the Atlantic Coast Conference
Mason Heintschel (PITT)98/148, 1,304 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT (5 GP)
Ashton Daniels (FSU)142/240, 2,146 YDS, 14 TD, 12 INT (9 GP)Pittsburgh allows 68.33 rushing yards per game. Florida State runs for 169.78 per game. One of those numbers breaks Friday night at Acrisure Stadium, and the spread sits at 3.5, a half point past a field goal. Add a coaching change our data first logged on November 12, with Rick Stockstill taking over Florida State, and this Pittsburgh vs Florida State prediction gets interesting fast.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are the favorite. They are 6-3 and sit 7th of 17 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Florida State Seminoles are 4-5 and 10th of 17. Pitt won the last meeting, 398 days ago. Rest favors the home side. Pitt has had 12 days off after a bye. Florida State has had 5 days and traveled 473 miles from Chestnut Hill on the second game of a road trip. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, gives Pitt 66% to win. The market says about 61%. That is context, not a bet.
Mason Heintschel leads Pitt's passing over 5 games of the team's 9, averaging 260.8 yards, 2.8 touchdowns and 0.2 interceptions per game. Holden Geriner was Pitt's quarterback of record last game, so confirm the starter before kickoff. Ashton Daniels has played all 9 games for Florida State, averaging 238.4 yards, 1.6 touchdowns and 1.3 interceptions per game. Over his last five games he has added 54.2 rushing yards per game. Daniels on the ground against that Pitt run wall is the matchup to watch.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins. The spread is a points handicap. A few books moved Florida State to +3, so shop. At +3, a 3-point loss is a push (your money back). At +3.5, it is a win. The total, the combined points of both teams, opened at 53.5 and is now 52.5. Best prices: Over +104 at ProphetX ($101.92 profit after the book's fee) and Under -105 at Hard Rock Bet.
Every price has a break-even, the win rate you need just to stay level. The vig is the book's fee built into the odds. Strip it out and you get the market's own read. Florida State +3.5 at -102 breaks even at 50.5%. The market's no-vig cover chance is 50.6%. The Seminoles are 3-1-1 against the spread as an underdog (5 games) and 3-1 on the road (4 games). Pitt's defense is real; we are betting the margin, not the upset.
The edge is thin, so the number matters. Take +3.5, not +3.
Pitt's front wins enough snaps to win the game, but Florida State's run game keeps it within a field goal in 39-degree air with light wind. Pittsburgh 27, Florida State 24. That is 51 points, under the 52.5 total, and a 3-point margin that cashes the hook. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Pittsburgh is the market favorite at -156 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Florida State at +150. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Florida State vs Pittsburgh airs on ESPN. Kickoff is Friday, November 13 at 7:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium, the Panthers' home field. The game is a conference matchup in Week 11 of the 2026 regular season.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are favored at -156 on the moneyline, with the Florida State Seminoles at +153. With the vig removed, the market makes Pitt about 61% to win. Pittsburgh is a 3.5-point favorite on the spread.
The game kicks off Friday, November 13, 2026 at 7:00 PM Eastern time at Acrisure Stadium. The forecast calls for 39 degrees, an 8 mph wind from the northwest and a 4% chance of precipitation.
Florida State Seminoles vs Pittsburgh Panthers College Football prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 52.5, with the over priced at +105 at ProphetX and the under at -110 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Panthers (63% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money is also on Panthers (72%).
The spread has held at Panthers -3.5 since it opened; the total moved from 53.5 to 52.5; several books (3) moved the spread on home to -3.5 together.
On Kalshi, 56% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Pittsburgh Panthers (1357 trades, $53k traded). On Polymarket, 98% of the money traded on the moneyline is on Pittsburgh Panthers (40 trades, $17k traded). On ProphetX, 51% of the money traded on the spread is on Florida State Seminoles (131 trades, $4.5k traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 13, 8:10 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.