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Central Michigan Chippewas play at Buffalo Bulls in college football on Wednesday, November 18, at Broadview Stadium. As of 9:41 AM ET, Buffalo are the moneyline favorite at -138 and the total is 43.5. Prices come from 2 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Under 43.5.
Prices updated · from 2 sportsbooks · college football betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Central Michigan Chippewas | Buffalo Bulls |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +125Bet at Novig → exchange price | -138Bet at FanDuel → |
| Total 43.5 | O -110Bet at FanDuel → | U -110Bet at FanDuel → |
As of 9:41 AM ET, Buffalo -138 on the moneyline and the total is 43.5, with 2 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Central Michigan ML | Buffalo ML | Central Michigan spread | Buffalo spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -138 | +2.5 +100 | -2.5 -120 | O 43.5 -110 | U 43.5 -110 |
| Novig | +125 | -153 | – | – | – | – |
Prices from 2 sportsbooks we track, updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Central Michigan Chippewas6th in the Mid-American ConferenceBuffalo Bulls3rd in the Mid-American Conference
Jason Wright (BUFF)119/245, 1,393 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT (9 GP)
Jadyn Glasser (CMU)67/112, 743 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT (9 GP)Prices are posted now. The full best-price table sits at the top of this page.
Central Michigan has gone under the total in seven of its 10 games this season. Now the Chippewas visit Broadview Stadium to face a Buffalo team sitting three spots above them in the Mid-American Conference. The posted total is 43.5. That is the combined points both teams score, and bettors pick whether the final lands over or under it. On this Wednesday night, that number is more interesting than the winner.
The Buffalo Bulls are the favorite. As of publication they are 7-3 and 3rd of 13 in the MAC. The Central Michigan Chippewas are 5-5 and 6th of 13. Kickoff is Wednesday, November 18 at 7:30 PM ET on ESPNU. Buffalo lost the last meeting, 371 days ago. Both teams get six days of rest. Central Michigan travels 300 miles from home. Buffalo comes back 385 miles from Muncie.
Neither crosses a time zone. The forecast is 47 degrees with a 5 mph wind and no rain, so weather should not bend the scoring. Both teams are 6-4 against the spread (meaning they beat the betting margin) over 10 graded games. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, gives Buffalo 67% to win. That is higher than the market's number. Treat it as context, not a bet.
Both quarterbacks have played nine of their team's 10 games, so their per-game numbers compare fairly. Buffalo's Jason Wright averages 154.8 passing yards, 1.1 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game over nine games. Over his last five he is up to 167.6 passing yards per game.
Central Michigan's Jadyn Glasser averages 82.6 passing yards, 0.3 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions per game over nine games, and 112 per game over his last five. That tells you how the Chippewas play. They average 190.8 rushing yards and just 126.6 net passing yards per game across 10 games. Running plays keep the clock moving. A moving clock means fewer possessions, and fewer possessions usually means fewer points.
Start with the moneyline, a bet on who wins outright. Buffalo is -138 at FanDuel, the best price we track. A minus sign means you risk more than you win. Risk $100 and you profit $72.46 if Buffalo wins. To break even, Buffalo has to win 58% of the time. A plus sign shows your profit on $100 risked, so a win pays $125.00, and the break-even is 44.4%.
The books build in a cut called the vig. The total is 43.5, with the Over and the Under both -110 at FanDuel. Either side profits $90.91 on $100 risked and needs to hit 52.4% to break even. A few cents of price changes that break-even, so always take the best number.
Expected value is your average result per bet if you could make the same bet many times. A positive number means the price pays more than the risk deserves. On the moneyline, the market's own numbers say neither side clears the bar. Buffalo's 56.6% sits under its 58% break-even. Central Michigan's 43.4% sits under its 44.4%. That gap is the vig doing its job. So we turn to the total.
The Under at -110 needs 52.4%, and we think the matchup supports it. Central Michigan is 3-7 to the over-under across 10 games, and Buffalo is 5-5 across 10. The Chippewas average 317.4 total yards per game and Buffalo averages 345.7. Neither offense is a track meet, and Central Michigan's ground game should shorten the night. No total no-vig figure beats that break-even here, so this is a matchup lean, not a proven market edge.
Under 43.5 at -110, best at FanDuel. A $100 bet profits $90.91 if the teams combine for 43 points or fewer. It loses $100 if they reach 44. It needs to cash 52.4% of the time to break even. If the total moves, shop it. For an Under, a higher number at the same price is a better ticket, so 44.5 would beat 43.5.
We see Central Michigan leaning on the run and Wright doing just enough through the air for Buffalo. This one never gets loose. Buffalo 23, Central Michigan 17. That adds up to 40 total points, under 43.5. Buffalo vs Central Michigan should be a grind decided late. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Buffalo is the market favorite at -138 (best price at FanDuel) on the moneyline, with Central Michigan at +125. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Central Michigan vs Buffalo airs on ESPNU. The game is at Broadview Stadium, with kickoff set for Wednesday, November 18 at 7:30 PM ET. The forecast calls for 47 degrees, a 5 mph wind from the southwest and no chance of rain.
Kickoff is Wednesday, November 18, 2026 at 7:30 PM Eastern time at Broadview Stadium. The game is televised on ESPNU. It is a Mid-American Conference game in Week 12 of the regular season.
Central Michigan has gone under in seven of 10 games and runs the ball to burn clock, so we lean Under 43.5 at -110 at FanDuel. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 43.5, with the over priced at -110 at FanDuel and the under at -110 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College football betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college football odds · FanDuel betting splits
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