Buffalo vs Ball State Prediction & Odds (Nov 11)

Where to Watch Buffalo vs Ball State, and How They Stack Up

Kickoff is 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, November 11, on ESPN2. Buffalo is 6-3 and sits 3rd of 13 in the Mid-American Conference. Ball State is 3-6 and 10th of 13. These teams last met 729 days ago, and Ball State lost. Both are coming off overtime games. Buffalo has 7 days of rest, traveled 58 miles from Oxford, and is on game 2 of a road trip. Ball State has 6 days of rest after traveling 685 miles from Amherst. The forecast is 55 degrees, a 5 mph wind from the southwest, and a 40% chance of rain.

Against the spread (ATS, a team's record once the betting line is counted), Ball State is 6-3 over 9 graded games, 3-0 at home, and 7-2 to the over in 9 games. Buffalo is 5-4 ATS in 9 games and 2-2 on the road. In per-game averages over 9 games, Buffalo gains 345.22 yards and runs for 168. Ball State's defense allows 426.44 yards and 179.78 rushing yards per game. PPA (predicted points added, roughly how many points an average play is worth) shows Ball State's offense at 0.1 and Buffalo's at 0.05. On defense, where lower is better, Ball State allows 0.26 and Buffalo 0.1.

Players to Watch

Both quarterbacks have played 8 of their team's 9 games, so per game is the fair comparison. Ball State's Keldric Luster averages 18.8 completions on 29.8 attempts for 185.3 yards per game over 8 games, with 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in those 8 games. Over his last five games he is at 208.8 passing yards and 42.4 rushing yards per game, so his legs matter. Buffalo's Jason Wright averages 14.3 completions on 28.9 attempts for 168.1 yards per game over 8 games, with 9 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in those 8 games. Over his last five games he is at 192 passing yards and 12.2 rushing yards per game.

Who Is Favored to Win Buffalo vs Ball State?

Here are the Buffalo vs Ball State odds. Ball State is the underdog at +106 at Caesars: $100 profits $106. Break-even (how often a bet must win to stop losing money over time) is 51.5% for Buffalo and 48.5% for Ball State. Strip out the vig (the book's built-in fee) and the market reads about 52.5% Buffalo, 47.5% Ball State.

That wins only if Buffalo wins by 2 or more; a 1-point win loses. Ball State +1.5 at -105 on Hard Rock Bet wins if Ball State wins or loses by 1. Buffalo -1.5 has the lowest break-even on the board at 48.1%; Ball State +1.5 needs 51.2%. The spread has moved, from -1.5 to -2 and then from -2 to -2.5 at several books, so shopping matters: Novig still shows -1.5.