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Troy Trojans play at NC State Wolfpack in college basketball on Friday, November 13, at Lenovo Center. As of 6:15 PM ET, NC State are 22.5-point favorites and the total is 148.5. Prices come from 13 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Troy +22.5. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 13 sportsbooks · college basketball betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean NC State on the spread (58% of tickets).
| Book | BetsTroy +22.5NC State -22.5 | MoneyTroy +22.5NC State -22.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsTroyNC State | MoneyTroyNC State |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings (Troy (+1800) / NC State (-5000)) | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) (Troy (+2000) / NC State (-5800)) |
| Book | BetsOver 148.5Under 148.5 | MoneyOver 148.5Under 148.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) |
Splits data from DraftKings and Circa. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Troy Trojans | NC State Wolfpack |
|---|---|---|
| Total 148.5 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +2000 | -5800 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Troy Trojans | NC State Wolfpack |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +22.5 -106Bet at Courtside → | -22.5 +104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 148.5 | O -105Bet at Fanatics → | U +100Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 6:15 PM ET, the spread is NC State -22.5 and the total is 148.5, with 13 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Troy ML | NC State ML | Troy spread | NC State spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | +1999 | -3964 | +22.5 -106 | -22.5 -110 | O 148.5 -110 | U 148.5 -106 |
| DraftKings | +1800 | -5000 | +22.5 -108 | -22.5 -112 | O 148.5 -112 | U 148.5 -108 |
| Fanatics | +2500 | -7000 | +22.5 -110 | -22.5 -110 | O 148.5 -105 | U 148.5 -115 |
| Novig | +2930 | -3025 | +22.5 -108 | -22.5 +104 | O 148.5 -102 | U 148.5 +100 |
| ProphetX | +2750 | -3500 | +22.5 -108 | -22.5 +100 | O 148.5 -106 | U 148.5 -106 |
| Bally Bet | – | – | +22.5 -110 | -22.5 -110 | O 148.5 -108 | U 148.5 -113 |
| BetMGM | – | – | +22.5 -110 | -22.5 -110 | O 148.5 -110 | U 148.5 -110 |
| betPARX | – | – | +22.5 -110 | -22.5 -110 | O 148.5 -108 | U 148.5 -113 |
| BetRivers | – | – | +22.5 -112 | -22.5 -112 | O 148.5 -109 | U 148.5 -114 |
| Caesars | – | – | +22.5 -110 | -22.5 -110 | O 148.5 -110 | U 148.5 -110 |
Prices from 13 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Ven-Allen Lubin (NCSU)15.3 PPG (3 GP)
Donovan Oday (TROY)14.7 PPG (3 GP)NC State is laying 22.5 points at home, and the total jumped two full points in five minutes. That is the puzzle here: a huge favorite, a modest tempo, and a market still arguing about the scoreboard. It is only three games into the season, so records tell us very little. Our Troy vs NC State prediction starts with pace and price instead.
The Troy Trojans visit the NC State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center on Friday, November 13, at 7:00 PM ET on ACC Network. As of Thursday, Troy is 1-2 and NC State is 3-0. Three games each is far too few to call form. The schedule says more. Both teams have two days of rest. Troy's last game went to overtime, and the Trojans traveled 502 miles and crossed one time zone east.
NC State is playing game four of a home stand. In per-game averages over three games, NC State shoots 49.33% from the field and 40% from three, while Troy sits at 40.33% and 29.33%. Against the spread (whether a team beats the margin the books set), both teams are 1-2 over three graded games, and both are 1-2 on over-unders. Tiny samples, so treat them as background.
Ven-Allen Lubin leads NC State at 15.3 points per game over three games, a small sample. A recent headline had him posting 21 points and 10 rebounds in a 94-60 win over Presbyterian. He is the name the Troy defense must account for. Donovan Oday leads Troy at 14.7 points per game over three games, also a small sample. If Troy hangs around, expect Oday to be the reason.
NC State is the clear favorite. The Troy vs NC State spread is a handicap: Troy +22.5 wins if the Trojans win outright or lose by 22 or fewer. NC State -22.5 wins only if the Wolfpack win by 23 or more. The half point means no push (a tie that refunds your bet). The best Troy price is -105 at Fanatics, so $100 risked profits $95.24. No moneyline (a straight bet on who wins) is posted at the books we track.
The total, 148.5, is a bet on combined points. The best Over is -109 at betPARX, and the best Under is -105 at Fanatics. Books opened the spread anywhere from -21.5 at FanDuel to -22.5 at Fanatics, and the total moved from 147.5 to 149.5 at six books within five minutes. Our rating gives NC State a 76% chance to win. That is context only and says nothing exact about covering.
Honest part first. Break-even is the win rate a price needs to avoid losing money over time. Troy +22.5 at -105 needs 51.2%. The no-vig figure (the market's implied probability with the sportsbook's cut removed) for that cover is 50%. Nothing clears its break-even. Troy +22.5 and the Under tie for the lowest break-even at 51.2%.
So our read is a matchup opinion, not a priced edge. The case: neither team pushes tempo, at 64.6 and 67.4 possessions per game over the last 10 stored games, and fewer possessions give a favorite fewer chances to stretch a lead past 22. The counter is real: Troy comes off overtime and a 502-mile trip.
Troy Trojans +22.5 at -105 at Fanatics, a small matchup lean with a 51.2% break-even. Only take the full 22.5. For an underdog, a bigger number is always better at the same price, so +21.5 elsewhere is a worse ticket. Passing is a reasonable choice too, since the price carries negative expectation.
Our NC State vs Troy prediction has the Wolfpack in control. They score 117.3 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 stored games against 107.5 for Troy, and they are at home on zero travel. We project NC State 80, Troy 63. That adds to 143 points, under the 148.5 total, and a 17-point margin would mean Troy +22.5 wins. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Troy Trojans vs NC State Wolfpack College Basketball prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk.
Troy vs NC State airs on ACC Network. The Troy Trojans visit the NC State Wolfpack at Lenovo Center on Friday, November 13, 2026, with tip-off set for 7:00 PM ET on that national broadcast.
Troy vs NC State tips off at 7:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026. The game is played at Lenovo Center, home of the NC State Wolfpack, and the broadcast is on ACC Network.
Troy Trojans vs NC State Wolfpack College Basketball prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 148.5, with the over priced at -105 at Fanatics and the under at +100 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college basketball odds · FanDuel betting splits
Several books (6) moved the total on over to 149.5 together.
As of Nov 12, 9:42 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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