A Long Flight Into a Steep Price
The UIC Flames flew 1,837 miles and crossed two time zones west. They tip at 10:00 PM ET, which is a late start on their home body clock. Waiting at University Credit Union Pavilion is a Saint Mary's Gaels team priced at -245. The bettor's question is simple. Is that price too steep, or not steep enough? UIC vs Saint Mary's tips Friday, November 13, on ESPN+.
The Matchup: Who Is Favored to Win UIC vs Saint Mary's?
Saint Mary's is the favorite and UIC is the underdog. It is early, only three games into the season for both teams. UIC is 3-0 and Saint Mary's is 2-1, but three games is too small a sample to call form. The per-game team averages over those three games do hint at styles. UIC forces 19.33 turnovers per game and averages 12.33 steals and 44 points in the paint.
Saint Mary's shoots 53.33% from the floor and 42% from three per game, but it allows 48% shooting. Saint Mary's played overtime last time out and has four days of rest. UIC has three. Against the spread (a bet on the winning margin, not just the winner), Saint Mary's is 2-1 in three graded games. It is also 3-0 to the over (games finishing above the posted points total) in three games. Those are tiny samples, so treat them as notes, not trends.
Players to Watch
Joshua Dent leads Saint Mary's at 18.0 points per game over three games, a small sample. A recent headline credits him with a 30-point performance, and he logged 43 minutes in that overtime game. Mantas Juzenas played 41. Rashund Washington Jr. leads UIC at 17.0 points per game over three games, also a small sample, and he played 29 minutes last time. Keep an eye on whether that heavy Saint Mary's workload shows up late.
UIC vs Saint Mary's Odds and Spread: The Numbers
The moneyline is a bet on who wins. The vig is the sportsbook's built-in fee. Strip it out and the market makes it about 70.4% Saint Mary's and 29.6% UIC. The spread evens the teams out with points. UIC +5.5 at -102 (FanDuel) wins if UIC wins outright or loses by 5 or fewer, and it loses on a 6-point loss. Saint Mary's -5.5 at -115 (theScore Bet) needs a win by 6 or more.
The total, 152.5, is a bet on combined points. The Over is -110 at theScore Bet and the Under is -105 at DraftKings. The total has moved. On the over side it went from 151.5 to 153.5 at three books, and on the under side it went from 153.5 to 152.5 at four books. Prices differ by book, which is exactly why we shop every one.
Where the Value Is
Break-even is the win rate a price needs before it stops losing money. Expected value is the average result per bet over many tries. Every ticket here grades negative against the market's no-vig read. UIC +5.5 needs 50.5% against a 48.6% cover read, for minus $3.76. Saint Mary's -5.5 needs 53.5% against 51.4%, for minus $3.90. The Over sits at minus $4.55 and the Under at minus $2.38. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, has Saint Mary's at 77%, above the market's 70%. That is context, not a bet.
The Pick
Be clear about what this is. It is the closest-to-fair ticket on the board, not a positive one. Pay any worse than -245 and the math only gets worse. If you cannot find -245, passing is a perfectly good choice.
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The Prediction
Saint Mary's vs UIC asks a road team to cross two time zones and play a late tip against a clear market favorite at home. We think the home side handles it: Saint Mary's 79, UIC 71. That adds up to 150, under the 152.5 total, but we are not betting the total. That is our read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
UIC vs Saint Mary's FAQ
Who is favored in UIC vs Saint Mary's?
Saint Mary's is the market favorite at -257 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with UIC at +239. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch UIC vs Saint Mary's?
UIC vs Saint Mary's streams on ESPN+. The game tips at 10:00 PM ET on Friday, November 13, 2026, at University Credit Union Pavilion, where the Saint Mary's Gaels host the UIC Flames.
What time is the UIC vs Saint Mary's game?
The UIC Flames at Saint Mary's Gaels game tips off Friday, November 13, 2026, at 10:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Pavilion. The broadcast is on ESPN+.
Who will win Saint Mary's vs UIC?
UIC Flames vs Saint Mary's Gaels College Basketball prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for UIC vs Saint Mary's?
The total is 151.5, with the over priced at +102 at Novig and the under at -105 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these College Basketball picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in College Basketball games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Quick answers
Where has the UIC Flames vs Saint Mary's Gaels line moved?
Several books (4) moved the total on under to 152.5 together.
As of Nov 12, 10:21 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.