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DraftKings bettors lean Illinois St on the moneyline (77% of tickets).
| Book | BetsIllinois St -3N Dakota St +3 | MoneyIllinois St -3N Dakota St +3 |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) |
| Book | BetsIllinois St (-162)N Dakota St (+136) | MoneyIllinois St (-162)N Dakota St (+136) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsOver 145.5Under 145.5 | MoneyOver 145.5Under 145.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) |
Splits data from DraftKings and Circa. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Illinois State Redbirds | North Dakota State Bison |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3 | +3 |
| Total 145.5 | O | U |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
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Rob Diaz III (NDSU)14.0 PPG (4 GP)
Johnny Kinziger (ILST)19.3 PPG (3 GP)Illinois State has scored 112.7 points per 100 possessions over its last 10 stored games. North Dakota State's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 54.25 percent from the field and 45 percent from three, per game, across its four games this season. A possession is one trip down the floor with the ball, so points per 100 possessions measures how efficient an offense is regardless of how fast a team plays. The Illinois State Redbirds visit the North Dakota State Bison at the Scheels Center on Friday, November 13, at 8:00 PM ET. The books have not posted a number yet, which gives us time to do the homework first.
It is very early. Illinois State is three games into the season and North Dakota State is four games in, so neither record means much yet. These teams have not met this season. The last meeting came 736 days ago, and North Dakota State lost it. The schedule is close to even. Illinois State gets three days of rest, plays game two of a road trip and traveled 664 miles from West Lafayette, crossing one time zone west.
North Dakota State gets four days of rest after a 1,396 mile trip home from Bakersfield, crossing two time zones east, and it played twice in the last seven days. Pace runs 64.8 possessions per game for Illinois State and 68.5 for North Dakota State over the last 10 stored games. You can watch on Summit League Network, WDAY and Midco Sports Plus.
Johnny Kinziger is averaging 19.3 points per game over three games. That is a small sample, so treat it as a hot start, not a habit. A wider view helps. He has averaged 15.8 points per game over his last five games and 14.7 over his last 10, with 33.2 minutes per game, and he played all 40 minutes last time out. For North Dakota State, Rob Diaz III averages 14.0 points per game over four games. He logged 61 minutes across two games in the last seven days, and Max Iversen logged 54 over that same stretch.
No odds are posted as of November 11. When they arrive, you will see three main bets. The spread is a handicap: the favorite must win by more than a set number of points. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. The total, or over-under, is a bet on combined points. For context only, our rating (an Elo model built on stored results) gives North Dakota State a 61 percent chance to win and Illinois State 39 percent.
North Dakota State is 0-3 against the spread this season, meaning it failed to beat the handicap in three graded games, all on the road. All three of its games went over the total. Three games is a tiny sample. Once lines post, compare every book, because the same bet can pay differently at different shops.
Books build in a fee called the vig, which makes both sides cost a little more than a fair coin flip. Strip it out and you get the no-vig price, the market-implied probability without the fee. Every price also has a break-even rate, the win percentage you need just to stay even over time.
Expected value is what a bet earns or loses on average per $100 risked. Without a posted price, nobody can calculate it honestly. Our view is that North Dakota State vs Illinois State could open with the home team favored, and the Illinois State moneyline is only worth a bet if the best available price clears its break-even.
We lean Illinois State on the moneyline, price to come, at whichever book posts the best number. The case rests on the 112.7 versus 109.2 points per 100 possessions gap over each team's last 10 stored games and on North Dakota State's heavier recent workload. It is a modest edge on early data, not a strong conviction. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official play.
Illinois State has the more efficient offense, and North Dakota State has not shown it can stop good shooting. We see a tight, efficient game that tilts late toward the road team: Illinois State 75, North Dakota State 72, a projected 147 combined points. That is our read before a number exists; the Desk's documented free daily play sits right below if you want to see how we handle a game once the price is set.
The efficiency numbers tilt toward the road team, so the Desk leans Illinois State on the moneyline once a price posts, and only at the best number in town.
The Illinois State Redbirds at North Dakota State Bison game airs on Summit League Network, WDAY and Midco Sports Plus. It tips off Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET from the Scheels Center.
The game starts Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM Eastern time at the Scheels Center, home of the North Dakota State Bison. Broadcast options are Summit League Network, WDAY and Midco Sports Plus.
Sportsbooks had not posted odds as of November 11, 2026. For context only, our Elo rating model gives North Dakota State a 61 percent chance to win and Illinois State 39 percent. That rating is not a bet or a market price.
The efficiency numbers tilt toward the road team, so the Desk leans Illinois State on the moneyline once a price posts, and only at the best number in town. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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