Lindenwood vs Omaha Prediction and Preview
Omaha is laying -174 on the moneyline. Yet over their first four games, the Omaha Mavericks have shot 39% from the field per game while the Lindenwood Lions have shot 49%. That tension sits at the center of Friday's game at Baxter Arena, tipping at 8:45 PM ET on Summit League Network and Midco Sports Plus. Four games is a tiny sample, so treat those numbers as clues, not proof. The real question for a bettor is simpler: does any price on this board pay more than it should?
Who Is Favored to Win Lindenwood vs Omaha?
Omaha is favored. Both teams are 2-2, but it is only four games into the season, far too early to call that form. The market's read, with the sportsbook's cut removed, makes Omaha about 63.1% to win and Lindenwood about 36.9%. Our rating, a simple model built on past results and used only as context, lands close by at Omaha 65%, Lindenwood 35%. Per-game averages over four games: Lindenwood allows 37% shooting, Omaha allows 48.5%. On schedule, Lindenwood has one day of rest and plays game two of a road trip after a 49-mile hop from Lincoln. Omaha has two days of rest in game two of a home stand.
Players to Watch
Deke Thompson leads Omaha at 14.2 points per game over four games. He logged 32 minutes last game and 80 over the past seven days, as Omaha plays its third game in a week. Grant Stubblefield carries an even heavier load: 35 minutes last game, 86 over seven days. A recent Omaha headline also noted Bolis scoring 29 in a 78-66 win over York (NE). For Lindenwood, Makhan Diouf averages 13.3 points per game over three games, a small sample. Xavier Spencer (29), Shamiere Green (26) and Malek Archie (20) took the most minutes in Lindenwood's last game.
What Are the Omaha vs Lindenwood Odds and Spread?
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. The spread evens the teams out: Omaha -4.5 must win by 5 or more, while Lindenwood +4.5 wins if Lindenwood wins outright or loses by 4 or fewer. Both sides are -108 at Courtside, so $100 profits $92.59, and either side needs to win 51.9% of the time to break even.
That spread moved from Omaha -3.5 to -4.5 at five books. The total is a bet on combined points, set at 154.5. Over is -110 at FanDuel. Under is -105 at BetMGM. The total opened between 152.5 (FanDuel) and 153.5 (Fanatics), then Caesars moved first from 153.5 to 155 and eight more books followed. Shopping matters: -105 beats -110 for the same bet.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is your average result per $100 risked if you could bet this exact spot many times. So there is no clean edge. Our view is a matchup lean on the Under. Over the last 10 stored games, Lindenwood plays at 72.4 possessions per game (a possession is one trip down the floor) and scores 108.6 points per 100. Omaha plays slower at 68.3 and scores 101 per 100. Those inputs point to a total in the high 140s, and the market climbing to 154.5 hands Under bettors a higher number.
The Pick
Under 154.5 at -105 on BetMGM. A $100 bet profits $95.24 and needs to win 51.2% to break even. The market's no-vig read on this side is 50%, so this is a matchup lean, not a value play, and stakes should stay small. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
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The Prediction
We expect Omaha's slower pace to shape this game and its home floor to carry it late. Projected score: Omaha 76, Lindenwood 71. That adds up to 147 points, under the 154.5 total. That is the full read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Lindenwood vs Omaha FAQ
Who is favored in Lindenwood vs Omaha?
Omaha is the market favorite at -178 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Lindenwood at +174. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Lindenwood vs Omaha?
Lindenwood at Omaha airs on Summit League Network and Midco Sports Plus. The game is played at Baxter Arena on Friday, November 13, 2026, with tip-off at 8:45 PM Eastern time.
What time is the Lindenwood vs Omaha game?
The game tips off at 8:45 PM Eastern time on Friday, November 13, 2026, at Baxter Arena. It will be shown on Summit League Network and Midco Sports Plus.
Who will win Omaha vs Lindenwood?
The pace numbers point to a slower game than the market is pricing, so we lean Under 154.5 at -105 on BetMGM in Lindenwood vs Omaha. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Lindenwood vs Omaha?
The total is 153.5, with the over priced at -102 at Novig and the under at -104 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these College Basketball picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in College Basketball games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Quick answers
Where has the Lindenwood Lions vs Omaha Mavericks line moved?
Several books (3) moved the total on over to 154.5 together.
As of Nov 12, 9:53 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
Trends and history
Lindenwood Lions ATS record and trends →Omaha Mavericks ATS record and trends →