A Deep Card at the APEX
On August 8, 2026, the UFC brings twelve fights to the Meta APEX. The card carries the name Gamrot vs Salkilld, a lightweight clash between a proven veteran and a surging 12-1 prospect, while the strawweight main event pits Gigi Canuto (7-1) against Carol Foro (9-1). Between those bookends sit heavy favorites, live underdogs, and a few prices that deserve a closer look. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, our free educational breakdown, not an official documented play.
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How UFC Betting Works
MMA betting is simple at its core. There are no point spreads, you are just betting on who wins, and the price is called the moneyline. A negative number is the favorite: at -235, Carol Foro's price, you risk $235 to win $100. A positive number is the underdog: at +195, Gigi Canuto's price, you risk $100 to win $195. Every price implies a win probability, and once you strip out the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig), you get a fair number. Foro's fair number here is 68 percent. One more habit that pays for itself: shop every book. The best price on a fighter often lives at one specific sportsbook, and taking the best number is the easiest edge in betting.
Gigi Canuto vs Carol Foro
Foro, 9-1, is a -235 favorite at Caesars with a fair win probability of 68 percent. Canuto, 7-1, pays +195 at DraftKings, fair 33 percent. The market sees Foro winning roughly two of three times. Canuto backers need her to beat a number that already respects her.
Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira
Miller, 5-4, is a strong -298 favorite at DraftKings despite the losing side of her record showing four defeats, fair 73 percent. Oliveira, 7-4-1, returns +275 at FanDuel, fair 27 percent. The board trusts Miller heavily here.
Miles Johns vs Gianni Vazquez
This is one of the closest lines on the card. Johns, 15-5, is -160 at BetMGM, fair 60 percent. Vazquez, 14-5-1, is +150 at Caesars, fair 40 percent. A 60-40 fight is genuinely competitive, and the payout on Vazquez reflects real uncertainty.
Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda
Two near-spotless records collide. Sousa, 14-1, is -295 at FanDuel, fair 72 percent. Miranda, 13-1, gets +250 at Caesars, fair 28 percent. Someone's single loss stays lonely, and the market strongly believes it will be Sousa's.
Louie Sutherland vs José Montanha
Heavyweight brings variance. Sutherland, 11-5, is -184 at FanDuel, fair 64 percent. Montanha, 6-1, pays +175 at Caesars, fair 36 percent. Experience is priced ahead of the shorter record here, but a 36 percent dog at heavyweight is never dead.
Bruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay
Another tight one. Nurgozhay, 11-2, is -155 at DraftKings, fair 59 percent. Lopes, 14-3, is +140 at Caesars, fair 41 percent. The market gives Nurgozhay a modest edge, nothing more.
Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat
Asplund, 7-2, is a big -295 favorite at FanDuel, fair 72 percent. Pat, 6-1, returns +250 at Caesars, fair 28 percent. Two short records, one lopsided price.
Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller
Miller is undefeated at 7-0 and priced like it: -390 at FanDuel, fair 77 percent. Goff, 9-4, pays a hefty +340 at Caesars, fair 23 percent. The market expects the zero to survive.
Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara
Thainara, 14-1, is -250 at BetMGM, fair 70 percent, against the far more experienced Lemos, 15-6-1, who pays +215 at DraftKings, fair 31 percent. The board is backing the newer name over the veteran.
Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle
The biggest gap on the card. Del Valle, 10-1, is -750 at FanDuel, fair 85 percent. Elkins, the 29-12 veteran, pays +575 at DraftKings, fair 15 percent. At -750 you risk $750 to win $100, which leaves almost no room for error.
Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo
Ferreira, 19-7, is -176 at FanDuel, fair 62 percent. Quarantillo, 18-7, is +160 at Caesars, fair 39 percent. Two seasoned lightweights, a modest lean toward Ferreira.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld
The namesake fight is nearly a coin flip. Salkilld, 12-1, is -135 at DraftKings, fair 56 percent. Gamrot, 26-4, is a rare underdog at +122 on FanDuel, fair 44 percent. Twenty-six wins versus twelve, and the market still favors the newer name, barely.
Where the Value Is
Value means the payout beats the fair probability. Most favorites here are priced a point or two above fair, meaning you pay a small premium to back them. The dogs closest to fair value: Goff at +340 implies about 22.7 percent against a 23 percent fair number, Elkins at +575 implies about 14.8 percent against 15, and Quarantillo at +160 implies about 38.5 against 39. None is a screaming edge, but in dollar terms a $100 bet on Goff returns $340 in a spot the market itself rates at nearly one in four. The worst dollar-for-dollar price is del Valle at -750, where the implied 88 percent exceeds the 85 percent fair number. Gamrot at +122 is close to fair for a 44 percent shot and interesting for dog players. Whatever you back, grab the best listed number at the named book.
The Picks
Main event: Carol Foro at -235, Caesars
Fight 2: Juliana Miller at -298, DraftKings
Fight 3: Miles Johns at -160, BetMGM
Fight 4: Manoel Sousa at -295, FanDuel
Fight 5: Louie Sutherland at -184, FanDuel
Fight 6: Diyar Nurgozhay at -155, DraftKings
Fight 7: Steven Asplund at -295, FanDuel
Fight 8: Ty Miller at -390, FanDuel
Fight 9: Alexia Thainara at -250, BetMGM
Fight 10: Yadier del Valle at -750, FanDuel
Fight 11: Diego Ferreira at -176, FanDuel
Fight 12: Quillan Salkilld at -135, DraftKings
The Prediction
The main event math is straightforward. The market makes Foro a 68 percent fair favorite over Canuto, and nothing in the pricing suggests the books are unsure. At -235 you are paying close to fair value, so this is a pick, not a bargain. The Desk sides with the number: Carol Foro gets it done, and if you play it, take the -235 at Caesars because the best price is the whole game.
7-1-0
5-4-0
14-5-1
11-5-0
11-2-0
10-1-0
26-4-0
12-1-0