Pacers vs Grizzlies Prediction & Odds (Nov 4)

Grizzlies vs Pacers: Six Out, One Big Price

The Indiana Pacers have lost five straight. A headline this week read "Missing 11 players, Pacers play just six in loss to Hawks." The Memphis Grizzlies sit at 6-1. So the question for Pacers vs Grizzlies is not who is better. It is whether the price already knows it. Tip is Wednesday, November 4, at 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum, on DAZN.

Who Is Favored to Win Pacers vs Grizzlies?

Memphis, clearly. Indiana is 2-6, third of five in the Central and 4.5 games back. The Grizzlies are second of five in the Southwest, half a game back, and lost their last game, which went to overtime. Both teams had one day of rest. The Pacers are playing their third game in four days, traveled 384 miles and crossed one time zone west.

Memphis is on game three of a home stand. The season series starts that night. Memphis won the last meeting, 248 days ago. Against the spread (whether a team beat the betting margin), Memphis is 9-2 over 11 graded games, 3-2 at home. Indiana is 5-6-1 over 12, but 4-1 as an underdog. Our rating, an Elo model, gives Memphis 81%. That is context only.

Players to Watch: Jerome and Siakam

Ty Jerome has played six of Memphis's seven games and is averaging 24.8 points and 5.4 assists over his last five games, in 31 minutes a night. Pascal Siakam has played seven of Indiana's eight and is averaging 19.4 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists over his last five games. The shooting gap matters too. Across 11 stored games, Memphis hits 40.73% from three per game and holds opponents to 31.33%. Indiana, over 12 stored games, allows 36.67%. Fatigue is real: Jarace Walker logged 45 minutes last game and 93 over seven days.

Pacers vs Grizzlies Odds, Line by Line

The moneyline is a bet on who wins. Memphis is the favorite at -217, meaning you risk $217 to profit $100. Indiana is the underdog at +208, so $100 risked profits $208. The point spread is a margin bet. Pacers +6.5 at -106 wins if Indiana wins or loses by 6 or fewer. Grizzlies -6.5 at +104 needs a win by 7 or more.

The total is 228.5 combined points: Over at -106, Under at +102. Every best price sits at Novig, which is why we shop lines. The spread opened Memphis -5.5 and sits at -6.5 after 12 moves. The total opened 230.5 and is now 228.5 after 11 moves. The public split shows 86% of moneyline tickets on Memphis.

Where the Value Is

Books build a fee called the vig into every price. Strip it out and the market reads Memphis 68.3%, Indiana 31.7%. Break-even is how often a bet must win to stay even. Pacers +6.5 is minus $0.58, Grizzlies -6.5 minus $0.37, the Over minus $0.93, the Under minus $0.98, all per $100 risked. Nothing on this board clears its break-even.

Who Is Out for Pacers vs Grizzlies?

Six Pacers are ruled out on ESPN's report, and none of them will play: Tyrese Haliburton (out), Ivica Zubac (out), Obi Toppin (out), T.J. McConnell (out), Johnny Furphy (out) and Ben Sheppard (out). Kelly Oubre Jr. is day-to-day and questionable on the NBA report (left calf contusion). Braden Smith, Jalen Slawson and Kobe Brown are questionable (G League two-way). Smith and Slawson each played over 40 minutes last game.

The Pick

A $100 bet profits $46.08 if Memphis wins and loses $100 if not. It carries a slight negative expectation, so this is a lean, not a bargain. Do not lay a worse number elsewhere.

The Prediction

A thin, tired Pacers rotation against a Memphis team shooting this well usually ends one way. We project Grizzlies 118, Pacers 108. That adds to 226, under the 228.5 total. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.