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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Who was the public betting on Cavaliers vs Thunder?
DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: Cavaliers (54% of DraftKings tickets, 51% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsCavaliers +3.5Thunder -3.5 | MoneyCavaliers +3.5Thunder -3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsCavaliers (+136)Thunder (-161) | MoneyCavaliers (+136)Thunder (-161) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 226.5Under 226.5 | MoneyOver 226.5Under 226.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
Circa closing read sharp Vegas reference, not bettable here
| Market | Cleveland Cavaliers | Oklahoma City Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 | -3.5 |
| Total 226 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +140 | -160 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Moneyline$331k traded · 6.8k trades · $370k open
Cleveland CavaliersOklahoma City Thunder
Trades
Money
Spread$50k traded · 806 trades
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5
Trades
Money
Total 226.5$12k traded · 250 trades
Over 226.5Under 226.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket
Moneyline$61k traded · 497 trades · $116k open
Cleveland CavaliersOklahoma City Thunder
Trades
Money
Total 226.5$874 traded · 25 trades · $1.7k open
Over 226.5Under 226.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $874 so far, percentages can swingNovig
Moneyline$24k traded · 191 trades
Cleveland CavaliersOklahoma City Thunder
Trades
Money
Spread$8.9k traded · 74 trades
Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5
Trades
Money
Total 228.5$3.2k traded · 22 trades
Over 228.5Under 228.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $3.2k so far, percentages can swingLast read before kickoff .
How the number moved: Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -2.5 | -3.5 | n/a |
| Total | 228.5 | 226.5 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | +138 / -163 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: odds, trends and the matchup
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Cleveland Cavaliers | Oklahoma City Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +147Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -150Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +3.5 -104Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -3.5 -102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 226.5 | O -102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U +100Pregame price at Hard Rock Bet → |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Cleveland Cavaliers
57%
Oklahoma City Thunder
71%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Cleveland Cavaliers2nd in the Central · 2 GB · L1
Oklahoma City Thunder2nd in the Northwest · 0.5 GB · W1How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +147 means a $100 bet profits $147 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
The Matchup: Cavaliers vs Thunder at Paycom Center
As of publication, the Cavaliers are 4-3, second of five in the Central, 2 games back, and lost their last game. The Thunder are 5-2, second of five in the Northwest, half a game back, and won their last game. Oklahoma City leads the season series 1-0. Both teams have one day of rest, neither is on a back-to-back, and both flew 950 miles west from Cleveland across one time zone.
No schedule edge either way. Against the spread (whether a team beat the betting margin), Cleveland is 3-7 over 10 graded games and Oklahoma City is 5-7 over 12. On totals, Oklahoma City is 3-9 over-under across 12 games, so the under has hit far more often. Cleveland is 5-5 over 10.
Players to Watch: Gilgeous-Alexander and Mitchell
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played all 7 of the Thunder's games and is averaging 30 points over his last five games (24.8 over his last 10), at 32.8 minutes per game. He logged 39 minutes last game and 98 over seven days. Donovan Mitchell has played all 7 of Cleveland's games and is averaging 19.8 points and 6.2 assists over his last five, at 32.4 minutes per game. James Harden and Evan Mobley each played 33 minutes last game.
The Numbers: Who Is Favored to Win Cavaliers vs Thunder?
The Thunder are the favorite. The moneyline (a bet on who wins outright) has Oklahoma City at -150, meaning $100 risked profits $66.67. Cleveland is the underdog at +147, so $100 risked profits $147. Both best prices sit at Novig. Cleveland +3.5 wins if the Cavaliers win or lose by 3 or fewer. Oklahoma City -3.5 needs a win by 4 or more.
Strip out the vig (the book's built-in fee) and the market reads about 59.8% Thunder, 40.2% Cavaliers. Our rating has Oklahoma City at 79%, context only. The public split is 62% of moneyline tickets on the Thunder. The total ticked down from 227.5 to 226.5 at three books within five minutes, a line move and nothing more.
Injuries: Who Is Out for Thunder vs Cavaliers?
Cleveland lists five: Jaylon Tyson (right ankle sprain), Peyton Watson (right hamstring tightness), Nae'Qwan Tomlin (low back stress reaction), plus Khalifa Diop and Ernest Udeh Jr. on G League assignments.
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Injury Report
OKCNikola Topic (Out), Thomas Sorber (Out), Cason Wallace (Out), Chet Holmgren (Out), Jaylin Williams (Day-To-Day)
CLEJaylon Tyson (Out), Peyton Watson (Out)
More NBA matchups
Cavaliers vs Thunder FAQ
Who is favored in Cavaliers vs Thunder?
Thunder is the market favorite at -150 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Cavaliers at +147. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Who will win Thunder vs Cavaliers?
Two days after Oklahoma City won in Cleveland, the Cavaliers get their rematch at Paycom Center against a Thunder roster missing five players. Wise Guy Team has an official play on this game. Members see it on their board.
What is the total (over/under) for Cavaliers vs Thunder?
The total is 226.5, with the over priced at -102 at Novig and the under at +100 at Hard Rock Bet. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NBA picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NBA games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NBA betting splits · DraftKings betting splits