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This game has ended. Each team's next preview is below, with the current odds and the Desk's read.
Who was the public betting on Mavericks vs Spurs?
DraftKings bettors lean Mavericks on the spread (61% of tickets).
| Book | BetsMavericks +12.5Spurs -12.5 | MoneyMavericks +12.5Spurs -12.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsMavericks (+458)Spurs (-620) | MoneyMavericks (+458)Spurs (-620) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 226.5Under 226.5 | MoneyOver 226.5Under 226.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
Circa closing read sharp Vegas reference, not bettable here
| Market | Dallas Mavericks | San Antonio Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +12 | -12 |
| Total 226.5 | O | U |
| Moneyline | +450 | -590 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
Exchange buyers before kickoff: Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Novig and ProphetX listed this game, but not enough traded before kickoff to show the buyers (we show markets with at least 10 trades and $500 traded).
How the number moved: Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -12.5 | -12.5 | n/a |
| Total | 229.5 | 226.5 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | +450 / -592 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track (exchange prices are marked) Prices when this preview was published
| Market | Dallas Mavericks | San Antonio Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +488Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -500Pregame price at ProphetX → exchange price |
| Spread | +12.5 -104Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | -12.5 +102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 226.5 | O -102Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | U +100Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Season win %
Dallas Mavericks
57%
San Antonio Spurs
71%
Chance to win, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Standings & streak
Dallas Mavericks4th in the Southwest · 2.5 GB · L1
San Antonio Spurs3rd in the Southwest · 1.5 GB · W5How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion of the game.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A moneyline bet is picking who wins, nothing else. In this game, +488 means a $100 bet profits $488 if it wins. The spread is a head start: -7.5 must win by 8+, while +7.5 cashes by losing by 7 or fewer (or winning). The total is combined points by both teams, over or under the books' number. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Spurs vs Mavericks Prediction: Can Anyone Cool Off San Antonio?
The San Antonio Spurs have won five straight, and the market wants the Dallas Mavericks to stay within 12.5 points on the road. That is a big number for a division game between teams one game apart in the standings. Tip is Wednesday, November 4, at 9:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center on ESPN, and this Mavericks vs Spurs game is a lesson in why the price matters more than the winner.
Who Is Favored to Win Mavericks vs Spurs?
The Spurs are the clear favorite. As of publication they are 5-2, third of five in the Southwest Division and 1.5 games back. The Mavericks are 4-3, fourth, 2.5 back and coming off a loss. San Antonio leads the season series 1-0 after winning 11 days ago. Rest is even: one day each, no back-to-backs, and Dallas traveled 253 miles with no time-zone change while the Spurs play game three of a home stand.
Over the last 10 stored games, San Antonio has played at 106.4 possessions per game (a possession is one trip down the floor) versus 102.9 for Dallas. Against the spread (whether a team beats the betting margin), the Spurs are 5-7 over 12 graded games and the Mavericks 5-6 over 11.
Players to Watch: Wembanyama and Flagg
Victor Wembanyama has played all seven Spurs games, and over his last five he is averaging 28.6 points, 9.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game in 30.6 minutes a night. Cooper Flagg has played six of the Mavericks' seven games, and over his last five he is averaging 23.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game in 33.8 minutes. Flagg's load is heavy: 40 minutes last game and 79 over seven days.
Mavericks vs Spurs Odds, Line by Line
Dallas +12.5 wins if the Mavericks win or lose by 12 or fewer. Spurs -12.5 needs a win by 13 or more. It opened at 229.5 and moved 43 times to 226.5, even with 79% of public tickets on the Over. That is a market fact, nothing more. Shopping for the best number is the easiest edge you get.
Where the Value Is
Books bake a fee called the vig into every price. Strip it out and the market implies about 84.2% for the Spurs and 15.8% for the Mavericks. Break-even is the win rate a price needs to pay off over time. Expected value is the average result per bet over many tries, not what one ticket pays. Mavericks +12.5 sits at plus $0.00, Spurs -12.5 at minus $0.98, the Over at plus $0.15 and the Under at minus $1.14. Our rating, an Elo model used only as context, has San Antonio at 90%. The edge is thin, so the price is everything.
Who Is Out for Mavericks vs Spurs?
Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery) is out for the Mavericks, along with Max Christie (right hip), Tarik Biberovic (right heel) and Sergio de Larrea (right knee). Santi Aldama is listed out by ESPN but questionable on the NBA's official report after right knee surgery, meaning his status is uncertain. That is five Dallas names. The Spurs are without two: Tobias Harris (left calf strain) and Jayden Quaintance (right knee surgery).
The Pick
We like the Spurs moneyline at -500 at ProphetX.
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The Prediction
Home floor, size on the glass (48.08 rebounds per game over 12 stored games) and a five-game run carry San Antonio. Our Mavericks vs Spurs prediction is Spurs 117, Mavericks 106. That adds to 223 points, under the 226.5 total, and an 11-point margin would fall short of 12.5, which is why we back the win, not the points. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Injury Report
SATobias Harris (Out), Jayden Quaintance (Out)
DALSanti Aldama (Out), Max Christie (Out), Tarik Biberovic (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Sergio de Larrea (Out)
More NBA matchups
Mavericks vs Spurs FAQ
Who is favored in Mavericks vs Spurs?
Spurs is the market favorite at -500 (best price at ProphetX) on the moneyline, with Mavericks at +488. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Mavericks vs Spurs?
The Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs game airs on ESPN. It is played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio on Wednesday, November 4, with tip-off set for 9:30 PM Eastern time.
What time is the Mavericks vs Spurs game?
The Mavericks vs Spurs game tips off Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at 9:30 PM Eastern time at Frost Bank Center. The national broadcast is on ESPN, and both teams enter with one day of rest.
Who will win Spurs vs Mavericks?
The Spurs ride a five-game win streak into a home date with the Mavericks, and the best moneyline price, -500 at ProphetX, is where our lean lands. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Mavericks vs Spurs?
The total is 226.5, with the over priced at -102 at Novig and the under at +100 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these NBA picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in NBA games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NBA betting splits · DraftKings betting splits