Exchange buyers before kickoff: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Spread$524 traded · 16 trades
Strasbourg +1.5Toulouse -1.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $524 so far, percentages can swingTotal 2.5$6.8k traded · 129 trades
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Trades
Money
Last read before kickoff .
Polymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket and is never added into its numbers.
How the number moved: Strasbourg at Toulouse
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -1 | -0.875 | n/a |
| Total | 2.5 | 2.5 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before kickoff, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks and exchanges we track 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Toulouse win | Draw | Strasbourg win |
|---|---|---|
| +122Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +270Pregame price at Novig → exchange price | +233Pregame price at Novig → exchange price |
| Total goals 2.5: O -127 (Novig) · U +122 (Novig) | ||
📊 Match Breakdown archived pregame data
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
ToulouseLDWDW
StrasbourgWLLLLLigue 1 table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Paris FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Stade Rennais | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| Marseille | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Toulouse win, Strasbourg win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Toulouse at +122 means a $100 bet profits $122. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Toulouse vs Strasbourg Prediction: A Board With No Easy Money
Two clubs with 10 points each sit one spot apart in the Ligue 1 table, yet the market makes Toulouse FC a clear home favorite. RC Strasbourg Alsace just snapped a four-match losing streak, and 68% of tickets (individual bets) are still riding Toulouse. When every price sits within a few cents of fair, the edge lives in the details.
The Matchup
Toulouse is 12th of 18 with 10 points from 9 matches and a goal difference of -1 (goals scored minus goals allowed). Its form, newest first, is LDWDW: a loss last time out, but only one defeat in five. Strasbourg is 13th, also on 10 points, at -2. Its form is WLLLL, a win after four straight losses. Strasbourg games run hot, with 2.2 goals scored and 2.3 allowed per match over its last 10. Toulouse sits at 1.4 and 1.4. Both clubs average 12.89 shots per game this season (9 games). Toulouse won the last meeting, 187 days ago.
How Soccer Betting Works
The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. In soccer it is three-way: Toulouse, Strasbourg, or a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. That third outcome matters. If this ends level, a Toulouse ticket loses and a Strasbourg ticket loses. Only the draw cashes. Prices are American odds. Toulouse at +122 means a $100 bet profits $122. The draw at +270 profits $270. Strasbourg at +233 profits $233. A minus sign flips it: -127 means you risk $127 to win $100.
The Numbers: Who Is Favored to Win Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Toulouse is favored. The market's no-vig read (the price with the sportsbook's built-in cut, the vig, removed) gives Toulouse 44%, the draw 26% and Strasbourg 30%. Line shopping, comparing books for the best number, is the cheapest edge in betting. The spread (a head start given to the underdog) opened Toulouse -1.5 and has not moved, so Toulouse must win by two or more.
Against the spread (ATS, the record once that head start is counted), Toulouse is 1-3 at home (4 games) and Strasbourg 1-4 on the road (5 games). Both are 5-4 to the over (9 games). On the Kalshi exchange, where bettors trade with each other, 72% of the money on the total is on the Over (107 trades, $5.3k), though exchange traders have since moved toward the Under. Our rating, an Elo model of past results, has Toulouse 56% and Strasbourg 44% head to head, context only.
Where the Value Is
Expected value, or EV, is what a bet earns on average if you made it over and over. The honest read: no side clears our fair price. Strasbourg's is +242, against +233. Both are short. In dollars, a $100 draw bet at +270 projects to lose about 80 cents over the long run, versus roughly $2.20 on Toulouse and $2.60 on Strasbourg. Find +273 or better and the draw reaches break-even or better. The profile fits too: level on points, Toulouse at 1.4 for and against, and one defeat in its last five.
Conditions: Where to Watch Toulouse vs Strasbourg and Kickoff Time
Kickoff is Friday, November 6 at 2:45 PM ET at Stadium Municipal de Toulouse, on beIn Sports. The forecast is 47 F with a 1 mph wind from the southeast, so weather should not shape this. Both clubs have 4 days of rest. Strasbourg traveled 457 miles from home. Toulouse returns 199 miles from its last game in Marseille. Neither side changes time zones.
The Pick
Our trigger is +273 or better. At +270 it is a small, disciplined lean, not a bet to size up, and passing is a fine decision if no book reaches our number. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official Wise Guy Team play.
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The Prediction
Toulouse should own more of the ball (52.31% possession per game) and the corners (4 per game to Strasbourg's 2.78). But it lands just 4.67 shots on target per game, and that 1-3 home ATS mark (4 games) says it has not been pulling away in front of its own fans. Strasbourg can score, yet it just broke a long skid. We project Toulouse 1, Strasbourg 1. That is our read on this number; the Desk's documented free daily play sits right below if you want the next step.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg FAQ
Who is favored in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Toulouse is the slight market favorite at +122 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Strasbourg at +233. The draw is priced at +270. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Toulouse vs Strasbourg?
Toulouse vs Strasbourg airs on beIn Sports. The match kicks off Friday, November 6 at 2:45 PM ET at Stadium Municipal de Toulouse in Toulouse, with a forecast of 47 F and a 1 mph wind from the southeast.
What time is the Toulouse vs Strasbourg game?
Kickoff is Friday, November 6 at 2:45 PM ET. The Ligue 1 match is played at Stadium Municipal de Toulouse and broadcast on beIn Sports. Both clubs come in on 4 days of rest.
Can you bet on a draw in Ligue 1?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Ligue 1 picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits