Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Match result$229k traded · 1.2k trades
TroyesDrawParis Saint-Germain
Trades
Money
Spread$34k traded · 418 trades · $61k open
Troyes +2.5Paris Saint-Germain -2.5
Trades
Money
Total 3.5$7.6k traded · 75 trades · $13k open
Over 3.5Under 3.5
Trades
Money
Polymarket
Match result$100k traded · 383 trades
TroyesDrawParis Saint-Germain
Trades
Money
Novig
Match result$11k traded · 37 trades
TroyesDrawParis Saint-Germain
Trades
Money
Polymarket: alternate and period lines
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out.
Polymarket
Alternate spread 2.5$20k traded · 52 trades · Pregame
Paris Saint-Germain FCES Troyes AC
Trades
Money
Alternate spread 1.5$2.1k traded · 33 trades · Pregame
Paris Saint-Germain FCES Troyes AC
Trades
Money
Light trading: $2.1k so far, percentages can swingAlternate spread 1.5$21k traded · 23 trades · Pregame
ES Troyes ACParis Saint-Germain FC
Trades
Money
Light trading: $21k so far, percentages can swingAlternate total 0.5$16k traded · 32 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Alternate total 2.5$2.1k traded · 18 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Light trading: $2.1k so far, percentages can swingAlternate total 3.5$3.2k traded · 24 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Light trading: $3.2k so far, percentages can swingAlternate total 4.5$579 traded · 21 trades · Pregame
OverUnder
Trades
Money
Light trading: $579 so far, percentages can swingPolymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket and is never added into its numbers.
- Moneyline: Yes 10% chance (price only)
- Moneyline: Yes 84% chance (price only)
- Moneyline: Yes 5% chance (price only)
- First half moneyline: Yes 63% chance (price only)
- First half moneyline: Yes 7% chance (price only)
- First half spread 1.5: -1.50 31% chance (price only)
- First half spread 1.5: +1.50 98% chance (price only)
- First half spread 2.5: -2.50 2% chance (price only)
- First half spread 2.5: +2.50 95% chance (price only)
- Second half moneyline: Yes 61% chance (price only)
- Second half moneyline: Yes 5% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 1.5: -1.50 1% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 1.5: +1.50 3% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 2.5: -2.50 1% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 2.5: +2.50 3% chance (price only)
- Spread 1.5: -1.50 63% chance (price only)
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks we track Live prices as of 9:38 AM ET · 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Paris Saint-Germain win | Draw | Troyes win |
|---|---|---|
| -575Bet at Fanatics → | +700Bet at FanDuel → | -- |
| Total goals 3.5: O -105 (BetMGM) · U -110 (BetRivers) | ||
What are the odds for PSG vs Troyes at each sportsbook?
As of 9:38 AM ET, with 10 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Troyes ML | PSG ML | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +1400 | -715 | O 3.5 -118 | U 3.5 -110 |
| BetMGM | +1100 | -600 | O 3.5 -105 | U 3.5 -130 |
| betPARX | +1400 | -715 | O 3.5 -118 | U 3.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +1400 | -715 | O 3.5 -118 | U 3.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +1200 | -590 | – | – |
| DraftKings | +1300 | -575 | – | – |
| Fanatics | +1300 | -575 | – | – |
| FanDuel | +1200 | -750 | – | – |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1400 | -700 | – | – |
| theScore Bet | +1400 | -600 | – | – |
Prices from 10 sportsbooks we track, updated (7 min ago). Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
Paris Saint-GermainWWWWW
TroyesWDLLLLigue 1 table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| Lille | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Paris FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| Stade Rennais | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| Marseille | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Paris Saint-Germain win, Troyes win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Paris Saint-Germain at -575 means you risk $575 to profit $100. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
PSG vs Troyes Prediction: Five Straight Wins, One Steep Price
Paris Saint-Germain has won five in a row. Troyes has lost three straight. The books see the same gap, and the best price on PSG is -650. That means you risk $650 to win $100. When a favorite is priced that steeply, the real question for a bettor is no longer who wins. It is whether any number on this board is worth your money.
The Matchup
PSG sits 1st of 18 in Ligue 1 with 20 points from 9 matches and a +11 goal difference. It scores 2.2 goals a match and allows 1.2 (over 10 matches). Troyes was promoted this season. It sits 16th with 8 points from 9 matches and a -9 goal difference. Its last five read WDLLL. It scores just 0.78 a match and allows 1.78. Both clubs have 25 games left. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, makes PSG 78% to win and Troyes 22%. That model ignores the draw, so it is background, not a bet.
How Soccer Betting Works
A moneyline is a straight bet on the result. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: PSG win, Troyes win, or a draw after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. That third outcome changes everything. Bet PSG at -650 and the match ends 1-1? You lose. A Troyes bettor loses too. Only the draw ticket at +750 cashes. A minus sign shows what you risk to win $100. A plus sign shows the profit on a $100 bet, so a $100 draw bet would profit $750.
Who Is Favored to Win PSG vs Troyes?
PSG, by a mile. The best PSG price is -650 at BetMGM. The best draw price is +750 at BetRivers. None of the US books we track posted a Troyes win price. Strip out the vig (the house's built-in cut) and the market reads PSG at 87% and the draw at 9%. The total sits at 3.5 goals, an over/under bet on combined goals.
Over is -143 and Under is +112, both best at BetRivers. Line shopping is the edge you control, so we only quote the best book. One more stat: ATS (against the spread) tracks whether a team beat the handicap the market set. PSG is 3-6 ATS this season (9 graded games), including 3-6 as the favorite. Winning and covering are not the same thing.
Where the Value Is
Expected value is what a bet earns on average if you made it over and over. The best price is -650. That is a coin's width apart, roughly break-even, a few cents negative per $100. No edge. Pass. We do not carry a calibrated fair price on the total, so this part is our read, not a model edge.
Under 3.5 cashes on three goals or fewer, and at +112 it needs to hit about 47% to break even. PSG scores 2.2 and Troyes allows 1.78. Troyes scores 0.78 and PSG allows 1.2. Those numbers point to a game around three goals, not four. Troyes is 3-6 over-under (9 games). PSG also comes in on 3 days of rest after a 628-mile trip from Villarreal, its third match in 14 days. Troyes has 6 days of rest.
Where to Watch PSG vs Troyes and What Time It Starts
The match is at Parc des Princes in Paris. Kickoff is Saturday, November 7 at 3:05 PM ET on beIn Sports.
The Pick
Under 3.5 goals at +112 at BetRivers. We are not laying -650 on PSG. This is Desk analysis, not an official play. If BetRivers moves, compare the other books before you bet.
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The Prediction
PSG controls the ball, scores early enough to kill the suspense, and a heavy schedule keeps the second half calm. Troyes, at 0.78 goals a match, struggles to make it a shootout. We project Paris Saint-Germain 2, Troyes 0. That is our read on this number, and the Desk's documented free daily play sits right below if you want to see how we handle the rest of the card.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes FAQ
Who is favored in Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes Ligue 1 prediction, odds and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk.
Where to watch PSG vs Troyes?
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes airs on beIn Sports. The match is played at Parc des Princes in Paris, with kickoff set for Saturday, November 7 at 3:05 PM ET.
What time is the PSG vs Troyes game?
Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes kicks off Saturday, November 7 at 3:05 PM ET at Parc des Princes in Paris. The match is broadcast on beIn Sports.
Can you bet on a draw in Ligue 1?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Ligue 1 picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · FanDuel betting splits