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DraftKings bettors lean Sacramento State Hornets on the spread (93% of tickets).
| Book | BetsUC Davis Aggies +3.5Sacramento State Hornets -3.5 | MoneyUC Davis Aggies +3.5Sacramento State Hornets -3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsUC Davis Aggies (+153)Sacramento State Hornets (-154) | MoneyUC Davis Aggies (+153)Sacramento State Hornets (-154) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsOver 161.5Under 161.5 | MoneyOver 161.5Under 161.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
Splits data from DraftKings. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before tip-off .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -3.5 | -3.5 | n/a |
| Total | 158.5 | 161.5 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | +140 / -166 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before tip-off, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| Market | UC Davis Aggies | Sacramento State Hornets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +144Bet at Novig → exchange price | -163Bet at Courtside → |
| Spread | +3.5 -103Bet at Courtside → | -3.5 -104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 158.5 | O -110Bet at Fanatics → | U -103Bet at Courtside → |
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Larry Hughes II (SAC)18.0 PPG (2 GP)
Veniamin Abosi (UCD)13.3 PPG (3 GP)One price on this board pays more than the market thinks it should. Just one, and only by 35 cents per $100. The UC Davis Aggies travel 14 miles to Hornet Pavilion to face the Sacramento State Hornets on Saturday, November 14, at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The market makes the home side a clear favorite. Our rating leans slightly the other way. When the edge is this small, the book you bet at decides whether this UC Davis vs Sacramento State prediction is worth acting on at all.
It is very early. UC Davis is 2-1 three games into the season, and Sacramento State is 1-1 just two games in. That is too small a sample to call form, so we read nothing into those records. The last meeting in Sacramento State vs UC Davis, 365 days ago, went to UC Davis. Rest matters more.
Sacramento State gets six days off after an 88-mile trip back from Santa Clara. UC Davis has two days of rest. Neither team is on a back-to-back (games on consecutive days), and nobody changes time zones. Our rating (an Elo model built on stored results, context only) gives UC Davis 51% and Sacramento State 49%. The market says otherwise.
Larry Hughes II leads Sacramento State at 18.0 points per game over two games, a small sample. Veniamin Abosi leads UC Davis at 13.3 points per game over three games, also a small sample. Neither is a trend yet. The headline coming in is Brayden Fagbemi's 21-point game for UC Davis, and he logged a team-high 31 minutes last game. For Sacramento State, Mikey Williams and Osiris Grady each played 31 minutes last game. One style note over just three games: UC Davis has averaged 20.33 fast-break points per game (points scored in transition before the defense sets) while allowing 5.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins. Sacramento State is the favorite at -163 (best at Courtside): risk $100 to profit $61.35, and you need to win 62% of the time to break even. Every price carries a built-in fee called the vig. Strip it out and the market reads this about 60.9% Sacramento State to 39.1% UC Davis.
The spread is a bet on the margin. UC Davis +3.5 at -103 (Courtside) wins if the Aggies win outright or lose by 3 or fewer. The half point means no push (a tie that refunds your stake). The spread opened at -3.5 and has not moved. The total, a bet on combined points, sits at 158.5: Over -110 at Fanatics, Under -103 at Courtside. It opened at 157.5 and moved to 158.5. Notice the best price on each side lives at a different book. That is why we shop.
Expected value is what a bet averages per $100 over many repeats, not what one ticket pays. Against the market's no-vig read, almost everything comes up short. Sacramento State -163 averages minus $1.75. UC Davis +3.5 averages minus $3.74. The over sits at minus $2.33 and the under at minus $3.74. A worse price erases it.
The Hornets must win by 4 or more; a 3-point win loses. The home floor and six days of rest support the matchup, but the price is the reason. Keep the stake small. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
Similar pace (73.7 and 73 possessions per game) and nearly matching efficiency (103.5 and 103.4 points per 100 possessions) over each team's last 10 stored games point to a grind, not a shootout. We see Sacramento State 79, UC Davis 74. That adds to 153, under the 158.5 total, but the under at -103 still grades negative, so we pass on it. A five-point Hornets win covers the -3.5. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Sacramento State is the market favorite at -163 (best price at Courtside) on the moneyline, with UC Davis at +144. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
UC Davis vs Sacramento State streams on ESPN+. The game tips off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET at Hornet Pavilion, home of the Sacramento State Hornets, with the UC Davis Aggies making a 14-mile trip.
The game tips off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM Eastern time at Hornet Pavilion. It is available on ESPN+. UC Davis comes in on two days of rest, while Sacramento State has six days of rest.
UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento State Hornets College Basketball prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 158.5, with the over priced at -110 at Fanatics and the under at -103 at Courtside. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
The spread has held at Hornets -3.5 since it opened; the total moved from 157.5 to 158.5; several books (3) moved the total on over to 158.5 together.
As of Nov 13, 9:08 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.