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These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before tip-off .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -3.5 | -4.5 | n/a |
| Total | 141.5 | 139.5 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | +165 / -200 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before tip-off, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| Market | UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | UT Arlington Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +170Bet at Kalshi → exchange price | -175Bet at Fanatics → |
Teodor Simic (UTA)14.8 PPG (4 GP)
Jace Posey (RGV)16.3 PPG (3 GP)The market and our rating agree on the favorite. They are only about two points apart on how big a favorite. That is the puzzle. The UT Arlington Mavericks look like the better team, but at -175 the price leaves almost no cushion. They are also coming off a trip to Honolulu, and the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros come to College Park Center with a defense that steals the ball. In this game the number matters more than the name.
Tip-off is Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. It is early. As of November 13, UT Rio Grande Valley was 2-1 after three games and UT Arlington was 3-1 after four, so neither record tells us much yet. UT Arlington won the last meeting, 338 days ago. The schedule is the real wrinkle. UT Rio Grande Valley has three days of rest and traveled 449 miles with no time-zone change.
UT Arlington has four days of rest but traveled 3,770 miles from its last game in Honolulu, crossing four time zones heading east. Neither team is on a back-to-back. In the per-game averages so far, UT Arlington pulls down 49.25 rebounds a game to 37 for UT Rio Grande Valley, and scores 47.5 points in the paint per game to 38.67. UT Rio Grande Valley answers with 9.67 steals per game, and its opponents average 15.33 turnovers. These are tiny samples, so treat them as early clues, not proof.
Teodor Simic leads UT Arlington at 14.8 points per game across all four games. Jace Posey leads UT Rio Grande Valley at 16.3 points per game over three games, which is a small sample. Posey also carried the heaviest load in his team's last game at 35 minutes. UT Arlington spreads it around more. Mier Panoam led with 29 minutes last game and has 63 minutes across two games in the last seven days. Over their last 10 stored games, UT Arlington plays slightly faster (69.8 possessions per game to 67), while UT Rio Grande Valley has been more efficient (113.1 points per 100 possessions to 103.6).
UT Arlington is the favorite. A moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. The minus sign marks the favorite. At -175, best at Fanatics, a $100 bet profits $57.14 if UT Arlington wins and loses $100 if it does not. Break-even (how often a bet must win just to not lose money over time) is 63.6%.
UT Rio Grande Valley is the underdog at +170, best at Kalshi, where a $100 bet profits $158.60 after the book's fee. Break-even there is 38.7%. Books build in a fee called the vig. No spread is posted at the books we track. A 141.5 total is listed without Over or Under prices, so we will not grade it. Always shop. These best prices came from different books.
Expected value is your average result per $100 over many bets like this one. That is just short. UT Rio Grande Valley needs 38.7% at +170, and the market says 36.8%, which is further short. By the market's own numbers, neither side is a positive bet. Our rating has UT Arlington at 61%, a little below the market, so it adds no support. Any play here is a matchup opinion, not a price edge. If you find UT Arlington better than -175 anywhere, take it.
Our UT Arlington vs UT Rio Grande Valley prediction is UT Arlington on the moneyline at -175 at Fanatics. That is a matchup lean built on the rebounding and paint numbers, not a value bet, so size it small. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
We expect UT Arlington to control the glass and score inside, while UT Rio Grande Valley's steals keep it close for a while. The Honolulu trip is the main risk to that read. Projected final: UT Arlington 74, UT Rio Grande Valley 66. That adds up to 140 points, under the listed 141.5, but with no price posted that is a reference point, not a bet. That is our read on a tight number. The Desk's documented free play for today sits right below if you want to see how we handle a cleaner spot.
UT Arlington is the market favorite at -175 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with UT Rio Grande Valley at +170. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The game streams on ESPN+. The UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros visit the UT Arlington Mavericks at College Park Center, an indoor arena, on Saturday, November 14, with tip-off set for 7:00 PM Eastern time.
UT Arlington is the favorite at -175 (best at Fanatics), and UT Rio Grande Valley is the underdog at +170 (best at Kalshi). With the bookmaker's fee removed, the market implies about 63.2% for UT Arlington and 36.8% for UT Rio Grande Valley.
Tip-off is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM Eastern time at College Park Center. The game is available on ESPN+. UT Arlington is the home team, and UT Rio Grande Valley travels 449 miles for the matchup.
Early in the season, UT Rio Grande Valley and UT Arlington meet at College Park Center with a moneyline that leaves very little room for error. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 141.5. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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