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Utah Valley Wolverines play at Nevada Wolf Pack in college basketball on Saturday, November 14, at Lawlor Events Center. As of 7:55 PM ET, Nevada are 9.5-point favorites and the total is 152.5. Prices come from 13 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Nevada ML at Courtside.
Prices updated · from 13 sportsbooks · college basketball betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: spread now Pack -9.5, was Pack -10.5; total now 152.5, was 153.5.
DraftKings bettors lean Nevada on the spread (75% of tickets).
| Book | BetsUtah Valley +9.5Nevada -9.5 | MoneyUtah Valley +9.5Nevada -9.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsUtah Valley (+410)Nevada (-550) | MoneyUtah Valley (+410)Nevada (-550) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsOver 152.5Under 152.5 | MoneyOver 152.5Under 152.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
Splits data from DraftKings. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out. Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
| Market | Utah Valley Wolverines | Nevada Wolf Pack |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +456Bet at Novig → exchange price | -471Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +9.5 +102Bet at Novig → exchange price | -9.5 -106Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 152.5 | O +104Bet at Polymarket → exchange price | U -105Bet at Hard Rock Bet → |
As of 7:55 PM ET, the spread is Nevada -9.5 and the total is 152.5, with 13 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Utah Valley ML | Nevada ML | Utah Valley spread | Nevada spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +375 | -530 | +9.5 -105 | -9.5 -117 | O 152.5 -115 | U 152.5 -106 |
| betPARX | +375 | -530 | +9.5 -105 | -9.5 -117 | O 152.5 -115 | U 152.5 -106 |
| BetRivers | +375 | -530 | +9.5 -106 | -9.5 -118 | O 152.5 -117 | U 152.5 -107 |
| DraftKings | +410 | -550 | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 | O 152.5 -105 | U 152.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | +390 | -525 | +9.5 -105 | -9.5 -115 | O 152.5 -110 | U 152.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +375 | -525 | +9.5 -105 | -9.5 -115 | O 152.5 -115 | U 152.5 -105 |
| theScore Bet | +425 | -650 | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 | O 152.5 -105 | U 152.5 -115 |
| BetMGM | +375 | -500 | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 | – | – |
| Caesars | +400 | -550 | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 | – | – |
| Courtside | +423 | -530 | +9.5 -108 | -9.5 -108 | – | – |
Prices from 13 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Styles Phipps (NEV)19.3 PPG (3 GP)
Dominick Nelson (UVU)17.0 PPG (2 GP)Nevada is laying 10.5 points at home, and the moneyline asks you to risk $440 to win $100. Our own rating calls this game far closer than that, and that gap is the whole story. The Utah Valley Wolverines visit the Nevada Wolf Pack at Lawlor Events Center, which sits about 1,380 meters above sea level. The market and our model are telling very different stories.
Tip-off is Saturday, November 14 at 10:00 PM ET on MW+. It is very early. As of publication Utah Valley is 2-0 and Nevada is 2-1, two and three games into the season. That is far too little to call form. The schedule tells us more. Utah Valley has six days of rest and is on game two of a road trip, after 429 miles from Ogden and one time zone crossed heading west.
Nevada has two days of rest and came 353 miles from Santa Barbara with no time-zone change. Its heaviest-minute players have worked hard lately: Elijah Price 71 minutes over seven days, Vaughn Weems 67, Styles Phipps 60. Over three games Nevada has shot 48.33% from the field per game and allowed 37.67%, with 42 paint points per game against 23.33 allowed. Our rating, an Elo model built on past results, gives Nevada 54% and Utah Valley 46%. That is context only, not a bet.
Styles Phipps leads Nevada at 19.3 points per game over three games, a small sample. Dominick Nelson leads Utah Valley at 17.0 points per game over two games, an even smaller sample. A November 13 headline also has Weaver leading Utah Valley into this one after a 21-point game. Treat all of it as early snapshots, not habits.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Nevada is the favorite at -440, best at Courtside, where a $100 bet profits $22.73. Strip out the vig (the sportsbook's built-in fee) and the market reads about 82.5% Nevada, 17.5% Utah Valley. The spread is a bet on the margin. Utah Valley +10.5 at -110 (Courtside) wins if Utah Valley wins or loses by 10 or fewer. Nevada -10.5 at -105 (theScore Bet) wins only by 11 or more. The half point means no push (a tie that refunds your stake).
The consensus spread opened at Nevada -10.5 and has held, though three books jumped from -9.5 to -10.5 within five minutes, and openers ranged from -11 at Fanatics to -9.5 at ESPN BET. That spread between books is why we shop every number. The total, the combined points of both teams, is 153.5, up from 152.5: Over -103 at Courtside, Under -110 at Caesars. Nevada is 1-2 against the spread (beating the point spread) and 1-2 on over-unders, in three graded games.
Break-even is the win rate a price needs to avoid losing money over time. Expected value is the average result per bet if you made it many times. Everything else runs negative per $100 risked: Utah Valley +426 minus $7.99, Utah Valley +10.5 minus $3.65, Nevada -10.5 minus $3.29, the Over minus $3.74, the Under minus $2.33. Our board is more cautious than the market, so this edge is thin and lives only at the best number.
Nevada moneyline -440 at Courtside. You risk a lot to win a little here, so size it modestly. If your book is worse than -440, pass, because a worse price wipes out the sliver of value. We pass on the spread and the total, since none of those prices clears its own break-even.
Nevada vs Utah Valley at altitude, with the Wolf Pack at home, is the setup the market prices as a clear favorite, and we side with that read. Utah Valley's extra rest is real, and Nevada's heavy recent minutes are worth watching. We project Nevada 80, Utah Valley 70. That adds up to 150 points, under the 153.5 total, and a 10-point margin lands right around the spread, which is exactly why we stay off it. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Nevada is the market favorite at -471 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Utah Valley at +456. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Utah Valley Wolverines at Nevada Wolf Pack game streams on MW+. Tip-off is Saturday, November 14 at 10:00 PM ET from Lawlor Events Center in Reno, so check MW+ shortly before tip to find the broadcast.
Utah Valley vs Nevada tips off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 10:00 PM Eastern time at Lawlor Events Center. The game airs on MW+, and the total currently sits at 153.5 points.
Utah Valley Wolverines vs Nevada Wolf Pack College Basketball prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 152.5, with the over priced at +104 at Polymarket and the under at -105 at Hard Rock Bet. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college basketball odds · FanDuel betting splits
The spread has held at Pack -10.5 since it opened; the total moved from 152.5 to 153.5; several books (3) moved the spread on home to -10.5 together.
As of Nov 13, 9:15 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.