@
Northwestern State Demons play at Little Rock Trojans in college basketball on Saturday, November 14, at Jack Stephens Center. As of 5:04 PM ET, Little Rock are 9.5-point favorites and the total is 143.5. Prices come from 13 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Under 143.5.
Prices updated · from 13 sportsbooks · college basketball betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean Little Rock on the moneyline (80% of tickets).
| Book | BetsN'Western St (+340)Little Rock (-440) | MoneyN'Western St (+340)Little Rock (-440) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsOver 143.5Under 143.5 | MoneyOver 143.5Under 143.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
Splits data from DraftKings. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Market | Northwestern State Demons | Little Rock Trojans |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +388Bet at Novig → exchange price | -426Bet at Courtside → |
| Spread | +9.5 -103Bet at Courtside → | -9.5 +104Bet at Kalshi → exchange price |
| Total 143.5 | O -108Bet at Courtside → | U -108Bet at Courtside → |
As of 5:04 PM ET, the spread is Little Rock -9.5 and the total is 143.5, with 13 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Northwestern State ML | Little Rock ML | Northwestern State spread | Little Rock spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +370 | -530 | +9.5 -109 | -9.5 -112 | O 143.5 -110 | U 143.5 -110 |
| BetMGM | +340 | -450 | +9.5 -115 | -9.5 -105 | O 143.5 -110 | U 143.5 -110 |
| betPARX | +370 | -530 | +9.5 -109 | -9.5 -112 | O 143.5 -110 | U 143.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +370 | -530 | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -113 | O 143.5 -112 | U 143.5 -112 |
| Courtside | +350 | -426 | +9.5 -103 | -9.5 -113 | O 143.5 -108 | U 143.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | +340 | -440 | +9.5 -105 | -9.5 -115 | O 143.5 -110 | U 143.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +375 | -525 | +9.5 -110 | -9.5 -110 | O 143.5 -110 | U 143.5 -110 |
| Caesars | +335 | -440 | – | – | O 143.5 -110 | U 143.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +360 | -475 | +9.5 -115 | -9.5 -105 | – | – |
| FanDuel | +330 | -430 | – | – | O 143.5 -110 | U 143.5 -110 |
Prices from 13 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Jah'Likai King (LR)17.7 PPG (3 GP)
Kai Simpson (NWST)17.8 PPG (4 GP)The total on Northwestern State vs Little Rock opened at 170.5. It now sits at 143.5 after two moves. A total is the combined points both teams score, and you bet whether the final lands over or under it. Meanwhile the spread has not moved off Little Rock -9.5. One number froze and the other collapsed. Saturday night at the Jack Stephens Center, we want to know which one still has room to be wrong.
The Little Rock Trojans are the home favorite against the Northwestern State Demons. As of Nov 13, Northwestern State is 1-3 and Little Rock is 0-3. It is very early, though. Northwestern State is four games into the season and Little Rock is three games in, which is too few to call anyone's form. Tip-off is 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 14, on ESPN+. Both teams have three days of rest, and neither is on a back-to-back. Northwestern State traveled 211 miles with no time-zone change.
Little Rock traveled 813 miles from its last game in Albuquerque and crossed one time zone heading east. Against the spread (whether a team beat the betting margin), Northwestern State is 2-1 in three graded games, including 2-1 on the road and 2-1 as an underdog. Little Rock is 1-2 in three. Three games is noise. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives Little Rock 64% to win. The market has the Trojans near 79%. We treat that gap as context, not a bet.
Kai Simpson leads Northwestern State at 17.8 points per game over four games. Jah'Likai King leads Little Rock at 17.7 points per game over three games, a small sample. Per game, the two are nearly identical. As teams, the Trojans average 35.67% from three and 80.67% at the free-throw line per game, but only over three games. They have also allowed 43.67% from three per game in that span. The Demons average 40.75% shooting and 14 turnovers per game over four games.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Little Rock is the favorite at -397 (best at Courtside). A $100 bet profits $25.19, and you need to win 79.9% of the time to break even. Northwestern State is the underdog at +355 (best at Kalshi). A $100 bet profits $331.44 after Kalshi's fee, with a 23.2% break-even. Strip out the vig (the book's built-in cut) and the market reads about 79.2% Little Rock, 20.8% Northwestern State.
The spread evens out the matchup. Little Rock -9.5 must win by 10 or more. Northwestern State +9.5 wins by winning outright or losing by 9 or fewer. A half point means no push (tie). Both sides are -108 at Courtside: $100 profits $92.59, break-even 51.9%. The total is 143.5, with over and under each -108 at Courtside. Shopping books matters, because the best underdog price sits at a different book than everything else.
Expected value is your average result per bet if you could make it many times. Neither moneyline earns it here. The under needs 51.9% to break even. Our case is the matchup. Over the last 10 stored games, Northwestern State plays at 63.8 possessions per game and scores 96.2 points per 100 possessions. Little Rock plays at 67.7 possessions and scores 107.2 per 100. Blend those and you land well below 143.5. The risk is Little Rock's leaky three-point defense, which could push this game toward the over.
We lean Under 143.5 at -108 at Courtside. A $100 bet profits $92.59, with a 51.9% break-even. This is a matchup lean, not a price edge. For an under, a higher total is better at the same price, so take 144 or more if any book posts it.
Little Rock vs Northwestern State plays slower than this number. We project Little Rock 71, Northwestern State 63. That adds up to 134 points, under 143.5. The Trojans win by 8, but we are not betting the spread. That is our read on this total. The Desk's documented free play for today is right below if you want the next step.
Little Rock is the market favorite at -426 (best price at Courtside) on the moneyline, with Northwestern State at +388. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Northwestern State vs Little Rock streams on ESPN+. The game is at the Jack Stephens Center, which is an indoor arena, and tips off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM Eastern time.
The Little Rock Trojans are the favorite at -397 on the moneyline, and the Northwestern State Demons are the underdog at +355. With the vig removed, the market gives Little Rock about 79.2% and Northwestern State about 20.8%. The spread is Little Rock -9.5.
Northwestern State vs Little Rock tips off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM Eastern time at the Jack Stephens Center. The game streams on ESPN+.
The total already crashed from 170.5 to 143.5, and we still lean Under 143.5 at -108 at Courtside as a matchup read. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 143.5, with the over priced at -108 at Courtside and the under at -108 at Courtside. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college basketball odds · FanDuel betting splits
The spread has held at Trojans -9.5 since it opened; the total moved from 170.5 to 143.5.
As of Nov 13, 11:00 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.