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Cincinnati Bearcats play at Dayton Flyers in college basketball on Saturday, November 14, at UD Arena. As of 7:21 PM ET, Cincinnati are 6.5-point favorites and the total is 147.5. Prices come from 8 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Over 147.5. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 8 sportsbooks · college basketball betting splits
Kalshi and Polymarket list this game, but not enough has traded yet to show the buyers (we show markets with at least 10 trades and $500 traded).
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Cincinnati Bearcats | Dayton Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -285Bet at Fanatics → | +240Bet at BetMGM → |
| Spread | -6.5 -110Bet at Fanatics → | +6.5 -103Bet at Courtside → |
| Total 147.5 | O -103Bet at Courtside → | U -110Bet at FanDuel → |
As of 7:21 PM ET, the spread is Cincinnati -6.5 and the total is 147.5, with 8 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Cincinnati ML | Dayton ML | Cincinnati spread | Dayton spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -300 | +240 | -6.5 -115 | +6.5 -105 | O 147.5 -110 | U 147.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | -285 | +230 | -6.5 -110 | +6.5 -110 | O 147.5 -110 | U 147.5 -110 |
| Novig | -264 | +239 | -6.5 -122 | +6.5 -115 | O 147.5 -113 | U 147.5 -117 |
| Caesars | – | – | -6.5 -110 | +6.5 -110 | O 147.5 -110 | U 147.5 -110 |
| Courtside | – | – | -6.5 -113 | +6.5 -103 | O 147.5 -103 | U 147.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | – | – | -6.5 -115 | +6.5 -105 | O 147.5 -105 | U 147.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | -295 | +235 | – | – | O 147.5 -110 | U 147.5 -110 |
| theScore Bet | – | – | -6.5 -115 | +6.5 -105 | O 147.5 -110 | U 147.5 -110 |
Prices from 8 sportsbooks we track, updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Aiden Derkack (DAY)22.0 PPG (3 GP)
Myles Colvin (CIN)12.0 PPG (3 GP)The betting market makes the Cincinnati Bearcats a clear road favorite at -285. Our own rating, a simple model built on stored results, leans the other way and gives the Dayton Flyers 59% to win. When a market and a model split like that, you slow down and check every price. Our rating is context only, not a bet. Tip is Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 PM ET at UD Arena, on ESPN+ and WHIO-TV.
The market favors Cincinnati, but it is early. Both teams are three games into the season, Cincinnati at 2-1 and Dayton at 1-2 as of this writing. That is far too few games to call form. Dayton lost the last meeting, 368 days before this tip. Rest is fine on both sides. Cincinnati gets four days off and travels just 47 miles with no time-zone change. Dayton gets three days off and plays game five of a home stand. In Dayton vs Cincinnati, think of the schedule as a wash.
Dayton's Aiden Derkack is averaging 22.0 points per game over three games, a small sample, and a recent headline notes his 25-point game. He played 33 minutes last game, with Grant Randall and Landen Joseph at 34 each. Cincinnati's Myles Colvin leads the Bearcats at 12.0 points per game over three games, also a small sample. Neither number drives our read.
Start with the moneyline, a bet on who wins and nothing else. Cincinnati is the favorite at -285, best at Fanatics: risk $100 to profit $35.09. Dayton is the underdog at +235, best at FanDuel: a $100 bet profits $235. Remove the vig (the sportsbook's built-in cut) and the market reads Cincinnati at about 72.3% and Dayton at 27.7%.
The spread is a bet on the margin. Cincinnati -6.5 at -110 (Fanatics) wins only if the Bearcats win by 7 or more. A 6-point win loses. Dayton +6.5 at -103 (Courtside) wins if the Flyers win outright or lose by 6 or fewer. The consensus has sat at +6.5 since the open, though books opened anywhere from +6.5 at Fanatics to +7.5 at FanDuel. For an underdog, more points at the same price is always better, so shop.
Break-even is how often a bet must win to stop losing money. Expected value is what it earns or loses on average over many tries. The honest problem: every best price here sits below the market's own no-vig read. Dayton +6.5 needs 50.7% against 48.8% (minus $3.74). The Under at -106 is minus $2.83.
We lean Over 147.5 at -103 at Courtside. This is a matchup lean, not a value bet, because the price is negative expectation at the market's own number. The case is pace and efficiency. Cincinnati has played at 67.5 possessions per game and 114.6 points per 100 possessions over its last nine stored games.
Dayton sits at 66.3 possessions and 110.3 points per 100 over its last ten. Two efficient offenses at that tempo land near the high side of 147.5. The over-under records cancel out (Dayton 3-0 to the Over, Cincinnati 0-3, three games each), so we ignore them. If your book only offers -110, the math gets worse. Take the best number or pass.
We project Cincinnati 77, Dayton 73. That adds up to 150 points, over the 147.5 total. A four-point Bearcats win would also keep Dayton inside the 6.5, but neither side's price clears its break-even, so the moneyline and spread stay on the shelf. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Cincinnati is the market favorite at -285 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with Dayton at +240. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Cincinnati Bearcats at Dayton Flyers game is listed on ESPN+ and WHIO-TV. Tip-off is Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 PM Eastern time at UD Arena, the Flyers' indoor home floor.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are the betting favorite at -285 (best at Fanatics), and the Dayton Flyers are the underdog at +235 (best at FanDuel). With the sportsbook's cut removed, the market reads that as about 72.3% for Cincinnati and 27.7% for Dayton. The spread is Cincinnati -6.5.
Cincinnati vs Dayton tips off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:30 PM Eastern time at UD Arena. The broadcast is listed on ESPN+ and WHIO-TV, and the total is posted at 147.5 points.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Dayton Flyers College Basketball prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 147.5, with the over priced at -103 at Courtside and the under at -110 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college basketball odds · FanDuel betting splits
The spread has held at Flyers +6.5 since it opened; the total has held at 147.5.
As of Nov 13, 6:42 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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