📊 Match Breakdown archived pregame data
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
United StatesLWLLW
ParaguayWLWWLGroup table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| United States | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paraguay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Türkiye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a
three-way moneyline: you bet United States win, Paraguay win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, United States at +110 means a $100 bet profits $110. The
total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5.
+EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free:
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The Opening Night Stakes
The World Cup is on home soil, and the United States is under the brightest lights it has seen in a generation. Paraguay arrives with no fear and a stubborn streak. SoFi Stadium will be loud and the margin for error is thin. This is the kind of match where one early goal can flip an entire group. Let us break it down before we land on a side.
The Matchup
The United States enters off a choppy run of results: win, loss, win, loss, win in their last five, reading newest first. That is a team that can beat anyone and stumble against anyone. Paraguay has been similarly streaky at win, loss, win, win, loss. Both teams are searching for rhythm at the worst possible time to be inconsistent, the group stage, where every point matters. The recent history is one-sided. The United States has won the last three meetings: 2-1 in November 2025, 1-0 in 2018, and 1-0 in 2016. Two of those three were tight, low-scoring grinds.
How World Cup Betting Works
Soccer uses a three-way moneyline, and this is the single most important thing for an American bettor to understand. There are three outcomes in 90 minutes: home win, away win, or a draw. If you bet the United States to win at +110, you risk $100 to win $110. But unlike American sports, a tie does NOT push or refund your bet. A 1-1 final means your United States bet simply loses, even though they did not lose the game. The draw is its own separate wager here at +230. So when you back a side, you are really betting they win outright, with the draw working against you.
The Numbers
Here is the full board at the best price we found across US books, because shopping for the top number is the entire edge. United States to win is +110 at DraftKings (risk $100 to win $110). The draw is +230 at Fanatics (risk $100 to win $230). Paraguay to win is +295 at BetRivers (risk $100 to win $295). Always check that you are getting these exact prices or better before you click.
Conditions
The match is at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. No weather information was provided, so we are not factoring it in.
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United States vs Paraguay FAQ
Who is favored in United States vs Paraguay?
United States is the slight market favorite at +110 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Paraguay at +295. The draw is priced at +230. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Can you bet on a draw in the World Cup?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these World Cup picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
