📊 Match Breakdown archived pregame data
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
SenegalLLDLW
IraqLLLDWGroup table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|
| France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Norway | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Senegal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Iraq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, the market's honest opinion. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a
three-way moneyline: you bet Senegal win, Iraq win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Senegal at -425 means you risk $425 to profit $100. The
total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5.
+EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free:
Sports Betting 101 ·
Odds converter ·
No-vig calculator
The Hook
Two teams walk into BMO Field in Toronto, both off a win, both still hunting for rhythm. Senegal arrive as the names everyone knows. This is World Cup 2026 group-stage football, where one result can swing a nation's entire summer. The favorite is obvious. Whether the price on that favorite is worth your money is a very different question, and that is where we will spend our time.
The Matchup
Senegal come in on a five-match run of LLDLW. Read that newest-first: a win most recently, but two losses and a draw in the four games before it. So a victory broke a rough stretch rather than capped a hot one. Iraq sit on LLLDW, which means they also won their last match, but had three straight losses and a draw before that. Both teams found a result at the right moment. Neither is rolling. This is the World Cup group stage, where every point matters and a single draw can decide who advances and who flies home.
How World Cup Betting Works
Soccer uses a three-way moneyline. You can bet the home win, the away win, or the draw, and all three are separate outcomes over 90 minutes. This is the part American bettors must understand. In the NFL or NBA, a tie almost never happens and overtime settles things. In soccer, if the score is level after 90 minutes, that is an official result, and it loses BOTH the Senegal bet and the Iraq bet.
The draw does not push your money back. It is its own outcome you can bet on or get burned by. Senegal at -425 means you risk $425 to win $100, but a tie does not refund you, it loses. Iraq at +1100 means a $100 bet wins $1,100 if Iraq win outright. A draw is its own ticket at +600.
The Numbers
Always shop for the best number across books, because that is the edge you control. The top Senegal price is -425 at DraftKings. The top draw price is +600 at FanDuel. The top Iraq price is +1100, also at FanDuel. On totals, the line is 3.5 goals: Over is +130 at BetMGM, Under is -165 at BetRivers. A few cents of price on every bet adds up over a tournament, so taking -425 instead of, say, -450 elsewhere is real money.
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Senegal vs Iraq FAQ
Who is favored in Senegal vs Iraq?
Senegal is the market favorite at -425 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Iraq at +1100. The draw is priced at +600. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Can you bet on a draw in the World Cup?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these World Cup picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.