Toronto Tempo vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, Picks & Best Bet (Sep 24)

Two Teams Running on Fumes

Both listed leading scorers in this game are out. Toronto is without Marina Mabrey (20.8 points per game), Connecticut is without Olivia Nelson-Ododa (10.1), and the market still hung a total of 167.5 points on the board. That is the sharpest tension in this matchup. Add a combined 13 straight losses walking into Mohegan Sun Arena and you have a game the public will ignore and the number will decide.

The Matchup

Toronto arrives 11-32, sixth of seven in the Eastern Conference, 18.5 games back of the top spot, riding a seven-game losing streak. Connecticut is 10-33, dead last in the East at seventh, 19.5 games back, on a six-game skid. One game separates them in the standings. The season series belongs to Toronto 2-0, meaning the Tempo have won both prior meetings between these clubs this year. Connecticut hosts, so they get whatever home floor is worth to a team that has not won in six tries.

Players to Watch

Mabrey at 20.8 points per game is the largest single scoring source in this matchup by a wide margin, and she is ruled out. Strip 20.8 points from a team already 21 games under .500 and the shot-creation burden falls to players the box score has not been asking much of. On the other side, the fact that Connecticut's leading scorer averages just 10.1 points tells you plenty on its own: this is a committee offense with no engine, and that engine is also unavailable. Neither club has a player left on the floor who reliably generates easy buckets late in a shot clock.

The Numbers

Moneyline first. That is a straight bet on who wins, no margin required. Toronto is +117 at Novig, so a $100 wager returns $117 profit if the Tempo win. Connecticut is -125 at Novig, meaning you risk $125 to win $100. Next, the point spread, a handicap that levels the field. Toronto +1.5 at even money (+100) is best at theScore Bet: the Tempo cover by winning outright or losing by exactly one.

Connecticut -1.5 at -109 is best at Bally Bet: the Sun must win by 2 or more. Finally the total, a bet on combined points by both teams. The number is 167.5. Over is -105 at Hard Rock Bet, Under is -104 at Novig. Those book names matter. Shopping the same bet across books is the cheapest edge in this business.

Where the Value Is

Strip the sportsbook's built-in margin out and the fair win probability is Toronto 46%, Connecticut 54%. Toronto +117 needs to win 46.1% of the time just to break even. Fair is 46%. That is a coin flip with no profit in it: roughly negative 18 cents per $100 risked. Connecticut -125 needs 55.6% to break even against a 54% fair number, about negative $3.50 on every $125 risked.

Expected value is simply what a bet is worth per dollar over the long run, and both sides here are priced honestly. The total is where the injury report has not been fully absorbed. Five rotation names are off the floor, including both listed scoring leaders, and 167.5 asks these two offenses for nearly 84 points apiece.

Injuries

Connecticut: Olivia Nelson-Ododa out, Saniya Rivers out, Brittney Griner out. Toronto: Marina Mabrey out, Temi Fagbenle out, Maria Conde day-to-day (a game-time decision). Three regulars gone for the home side, two plus a question mark for the visitor.

The Pick

Under 167.5 at -104, best price at Novig. If you shop and find 168 or better, take it; that half point is real in a low-possession game. We pass on the side entirely because 46% fair against a 46.1% break-even is no bet. If you insist on a side, Toronto +1.5 at +100 (theScore Bet) is the better structure, since you get the extra point and even money.

The Prediction

Two depleted offenses, two long losing streaks, and neither team has the shot-maker to break 85 on their own. Connecticut 82, Toronto 79, total 161, comfortably under the number. That is the read on this line; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one, and it sits right below.