UFC 331 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets: Van vs. Pantoja 2

UFC 331: A Coin Flip On Top, Heavy Chalk Underneath

The fight this event is named after is the closest thing to a coin flip on the whole board: Alexandre Pantoja at +133, Joshua Van at -136. Meanwhile, two other men on this card are priced at -500. That gap is the story of UFC 331 at crypto.com Arena. One rematch the market cannot separate, a stack of expensive favorites, and several underdogs priced close enough to fair that shopping books actually matters. Twelve fights, one without a posted number yet. Here is the full board.

How UFC Betting Works

There are no point spreads in MMA. You are simply betting who gets their hand raised. That is the moneyline. A minus number is the favorite and tells you what you risk to win $100: Joanderson Brito at -376 means you risk $376 to win $100. A plus number is the underdog and tells you what $100 wins: Giga Chikadze at +344 means $100 returns $344 in profit.

The gap between those two prices is the vig, the books' built-in commission. When we say "fair 78%", we mean the market's honest win probability with that commission stripped out. Compare fair to the actual price and you see whether you are getting paid enough. One more thing: prices differ by book. Marlon Vera is +180 at Caesars and shorter elsewhere. Always take the best number.

Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito

Chikadze is 15-6, Brito is 19-5-1. Brito is -376 (fair 78%), Chikadze +344 (fair 23%). The market believes Brito dictates where this fight happens. Chikadze needs it upright, at range, and deep into the later rounds.

Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura

O'Neill (11-2) is -205 at ProphetX, fair 67%. Moura (12-2) is +203 at Novig, fair 34%. Two of every three, per the market. Moura's record is nearly identical, which is why this dog price is not an afterthought.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira

Shahbazyan (16-6) is -170, fair 63%. Ferreira (15-4) is +165, fair 37%. The tightest of the two middleweight bouts. The market sees a modest edge, not a gulf, and Ferreira pays better than a third of the time.

Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan Gandra

Gandra is 10-1 and priced -500 at Caesars, fair 80%. Diaz is 10-4 at +410, fair 20%. Laying $500 to win $100 is a steep toll. The market respects that single career loss.

Michael Aswell vs JooSang Yoo

Yoo (9-1) is -192 at DraftKings, fair 64%. Aswell (11-5) is +172 at FanDuel, fair 36%. A workable gap. The market trusts Yoo's record, but this is not priced as a blowout.

Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne

Tuivasa is 15-10 and +430, fair 19%. Despaigne is 6-2 and -500, fair 81%. Heavyweight, so one clean shot rewrites everything. The market is still comfortable laying five to one.

Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain

Vera brings 36 pro fights (23-12-1) and is the +180 underdog, fair 35%. Jourdain (18-8-1) is -194, fair 65%. Experience is not carrying the price here, and that is worth noticing.

Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski

Baraniewski is 9-0 and -220 at FanDuel, fair 68%. Menifield (18-6-1) is +203 at Novig, fair 33%. The market is paying for the unbeaten record over the veteran's 25 fights.

Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf

Steveson is 4-0, Sharaf is 4-2. No prices posted yet. When a line opens late on a small sample, the number often moves fast. Wait for it and compare every book before committing.

Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi

Pitbull (37-9) is +240 at Caesars, fair 30%. Choi (17-4-1) is -270 at DraftKings, fair 70%. Forty-six pro fights against twenty-two, and the market has the veteran as a clear dog.

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

Tsarukyan (23-3) is -277 at Novig, fair 73%. Ruffy (14-2) is +264, fair 27%. Roughly three-to-one. Ruffy needs a short, violent fight; the longer it runs, the more the price makes sense.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van

The rematch, and the tightest number on the card. Pantoja is 30-6 at +133 (fair 44%), Van is 17-2 at -136 (fair 56%). The market splits this within a few points. Nobody is confident.

Where the Value Is

Start with Pantoja. At +133 you risk $100 to win $133, and that price implies about 43% while fair is 44%. Thin, but you are on the correct side of the line rather than paying a premium. Same story with Pitbull +240 (implies 29%, fair 30%), Moura +203 (implies 33%, fair 34%) and Chikadze +344 (implies 22%, fair 23%).

Now the other direction: both -500 favorites, Gandra and Despaigne, imply about 83% while fair sits at 80% and 81%. You are paying a few points of overhead for the comfort. That is fine on a small stake, ugly on a big one. This is exactly why line shopping matters: Vera at +180 (Caesars) versus a shorter number elsewhere is real money over a season.

The Picks

Chikadze vs Brito: Brito at -376, Novig.

O'Neill vs Moura: O'Neill at -205, ProphetX.

Shahbazyan vs Ferreira: Shahbazyan at -170, Novig.

Diaz vs Gandra: Gandra at -500, Caesars (small stake only at that price).

Aswell vs Yoo: Yoo at -192, DraftKings.

Tuivasa vs Despaigne: Despaigne at -500, Caesars (result lean, price too steep to back).

Vera vs Jourdain: Jourdain at -194, Novig.

Menifield vs Baraniewski: Baraniewski at -220, FanDuel.

Steveson vs Sharaf: Steveson, no price posted, wait for the opener.

Pitbull vs Choi: Pitbull at +240, Caesars.

Tsarukyan vs Ruffy: Tsarukyan at -277, Novig.

Pantoja vs Van: Pantoja at +133, Novig.

The Prediction

Brito at -376 is expensive, and we are not pretending otherwise. But the fair number is 78%, so the market is barely overcharging, and the 19-5-1 record against Chikadze's 15-6 backs the read. We like Brito to control the terms and win the main event. If you want the Chikadze side, +344 is the number to hunt, and only at Novig. Everywhere else you are being underpaid for the same outcome. That is the read on this board, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one, sitting right below.