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RebetFree-to-play social sportsbook with sweepstakes prizesClaim →Over their last five games the Vegas Golden Knights have scored 4.2 goals per game and allowed 3.2. Over their last five the Pittsburgh Penguins have scored 2.6 and allowed 4.4. Same size sample, five games each, and the gap is enormous on both ends of the ice. No oddsmaker has hung a number on this one yet, which means the board is still a blank page. Puck drop is Tuesday, November 3 at 7:00 PM ET at PPG Paints Arena, on ESPN+ and Scripps Sports.
Nobody yet, because prices are not posted. Here is what we do know. As of publication on October 27, Vegas is 8-4-1 and Pittsburgh is 5-6-1. Those are records as of that date, not records entering this game. The Penguins sit 6th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division. Vegas leads the season series 1-0, meaning these clubs have met once and the Golden Knights took it. Vegas averages 26.8 shots per game, Pittsburgh 24.6. In goal, Arturs Silovs started three of Pittsburgh's last five, and Carter Hart started three of Vegas's last five. A recent starter is not a confirmed starter here.
Jack Eichel leads Vegas in scoring with 19 points in 13 games played, which is 1.5 points per game. Erik Karlsson leads Pittsburgh with 12 points in 12 games played, exactly 1.0 per game. Because the two have played a different number of games, the only fair comparison is the per game rate, and Eichel is half a point clear of him. Karlsson's number is impressive from the blue line, but it also tells you how much of Pittsburgh's offense is running through one defenseman.
Three markets will open. The moneyline is the straight bet on who wins, overtime and shootout included. The puck line is hockey's spread, almost always 1.5 goals, so the favorite must win by two or more and the underdog can lose by exactly one and still cash. The total, also called the over/under, is the combined goals both teams score.
Baked into every price is the vig, the book's commission, which is why both sides of a market add up to more than 100 percent. Prices differ by book, so when these post, compare at least three. Half a point of total or a few cents of moneyline is real money over a season.
Strip the vig out of a two sided market and you get the market-implied probability, the chance the market is pricing after the commission is removed. That number, not a hunch, is your yardstick. Expected value is simply what a bet averages per $100 risked if you replayed it a thousand times.
If your read on the game is more confident than the market-implied probability, the bet pays you over time. Our read: Vegas is the better team on both sides of the puck in the most recent five game samples, and a thin, banged up Pittsburgh group is not the spot to fade them. We want the Golden Knights moneyline if it opens anywhere near fair.
Pittsburgh's report, dated October 27, lists nine names. Six are on injured reserve: Ben Kindel, Bryan Rust, Justin Brazeau, Ryan Graves, Samuel Girard and Trevor van Riemsdyk. Three are day to day: Evgeni Malkin, Egor Chinakhov and Elmer Soderblom. Day to day means uncertain, nothing more. Vegas lists two: Carter Hart day to day and Parker Wotherspoon on injured reserve. Hart's status matters most here given the crease. Morning skate news on game day is the next real update.
Desk lean: Vegas Golden Knights moneyline, taken at the best price available once the market posts. The puck line is a different bet with its own break-even, so judge it on its own number, not on this one. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official documented play.
Golden Knights 4, Penguins 2. Vegas's recent scoring rate plus a Pittsburgh group missing six players to injured reserve points to a road team controlling play. That is our Golden Knights vs Penguins prediction, and that is the read on a number that has not even opened yet; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Vegas has outscored its last five opponents while Pittsburgh has been outscored by nearly two a night, and the Desk leans Golden Knights when the moneyline posts.
The game is carried on ESPN+ and Scripps Sports. It is played at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, November 3. Those are the only networks listed for this broadcast, so check your local ESPN+ or Scripps Sports listing for availability in your area.
Puck drop is Tuesday, November 3 at 7:00 PM ET from PPG Paints Arena. Coverage is on ESPN+ and Scripps Sports. If you are shopping the market, prices for this game had not been posted as of the October 27 publication date.
No odds were posted at publication, so there is no favorite yet. As of October 27, Vegas was 8-4-1 and Pittsburgh was 5-6-1, with Pittsburgh 6th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division. Vegas leads the season series 1-0.
Pittsburgh's October 27 report lists Evgeni Malkin as day to day, along with Egor Chinakhov and Elmer Soderblom. Day to day means his status is uncertain. Six Penguins are on injured reserve: Ben Kindel, Bryan Rust, Justin Brazeau, Ryan Graves, Samuel Girard and Trevor van Riemsdyk.
Vegas has outscored its last five opponents while Pittsburgh has been outscored by nearly two a night, and the Desk leans Golden Knights when the moneyline posts. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NHL picks today · NHL betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
Not confirmed yet. Most recent starts: Vegas Golden Knights C. Hart, Pittsburgh Penguins A. Silovs.
Vegas Golden Knights: Carter Hart (day-to-day), Parker Wotherspoon (injured reserve); Pittsburgh Penguins: Ben Kindel (injured reserve), Bryan Rust (injured reserve), Egor Chinakhov (day-to-day), Elmer Soderblom (day-to-day).
As of Oct 27, 7:10 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.
