@
| Market | Chicago Blackhawks | New York Islanders |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +167Pregame price at Novig → | -170Pregame price at Novig → |
| Spread | +1.5 -150Pregame price at Novig → | -1.5 +147Pregame price at Novig → |
| Total 5.5 | O -120Pregame price at FanDuel → | U +117Pregame price at Novig → |
Five players are listed out or on injured reserve across these two rosters, three of them from Chicago, and the market still only makes the New York Islanders a -170 home favorite. That is a tell worth sitting with. When a team loses that much skill and the price barely flinches, the number is telling you something about how both sides are expected to score, not just who is expected to win. Blackhawks vs Islanders opens the season series Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET from UBS Arena, and the most interesting bet on the board may not be a side at all.
As of publication, the Chicago Blackhawks are 1-3-0 and the New York Islanders are 1-2-0. In hockey records, that third number is overtime and shootout losses, which still bank a point in the standings. Chicago sits 8th of 8 in the Central Division. The season series starts with this game, so there is no head-to-head history from this year to lean on. Two small samples, two teams still sorting out their lines, and a market that has landed on a modest home edge.
Brayden Schenn leads the Islanders with 4 points. Anton Frondell leads the Blackhawks with the same number, 4. A point is a goal or an assist, and leading a team with 4 of them this early tells you two things: nobody has separated himself yet, and the offense is running through a narrow channel. For Chicago in particular, Frondell carrying the scoring load matters given who is unavailable below.
Moneyline first. That is the straight bet on who wins. New York Islanders -170 is the best price we track, at Novig: a $100 bet profits $58.82 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, with a break-even of 63%. Chicago Blackhawks +167, also best at Novig: a $100 bet profits $167.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, break-even 37.5%. The Islanders are the favorite, the Blackhawks are the underdog, and with the bookmaker's built-in margin (the vig) stripped out, the market reads it about 62.2% to 37.8%.
The puck line is hockey's spread. Chicago +1.5 at -150 wins if the Blackhawks win outright or lose by one; it loses on a two-goal defeat, and there is no push at a half goal. New York -1.5 at +147 wins only if the Islanders win by two or more; a one-goal win loses. Total 5.5 means combined goals: Over 5.5 is -120 at FanDuel, Under 5.5 is +117 at Novig.
Expected value is the average result per $100 risked if you made the same bet forever at that price. Under 5.5 at +117 has a break-even of 46.1% and the market's own no-vig number for that side is 46.8%, which works out to plus $1.56 per $100 risked, with fair pricing around +114. That is the best expected result on this board.
Chicago +167 is also positive at plus $0.93 per $100 risked against a 37.8% no-vig read. The Islanders moneyline at -170 runs minus $1.21 per $100 risked. Chicago +1.5 at -150 needs 60% and the market's own cover read for that line is 59.3%, a minus $1.17 per $100 risked proposition, so we pass on it even though a one-goal Islanders win is a live outcome.
New York is without Alexander Romanov (Out) and Mathew Barzal (Injured Reserve). Chicago is missing Andrew Mangiapane (Injured Reserve), Teuvo Teravainen (Out) and Connor Bedard (Injured Reserve). Five absences total, three of them Chicago forwards. Both offenses are thinner than their names suggest, and that is the case for goals being harder to come by here.
Under 5.5 at +117, best price at Novig. Break-even 46.1%, market-implied 46.8% with the vig removed, plus $1.56 per $100 risked.
Islanders vs Blackhawks projects as a tight, low-event game: New York Islanders 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2. That adds to five goals, under the total of 5.5. If you want a side, the Blackhawks at +167 is the only moneyline here that pays more than the market's own read, but shop it, because a half-step worse price erases that edge entirely. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one, just below.
Islanders is the market favorite at -170 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Blackhawks at +167. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Three of the four positive-expectation prices on this board sit on the quiet side of the ledger, and the Under 5.5 at +117 is the sharpest of them. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 5.5, with the over priced at -120 at FanDuel and the under at +117 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Anton Frondell