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Miami Heat play at Golden State Warriors in the NBA on Thursday, November 5, at Chase Center. As of 7:43 AM ET, Warriors are 7.5-point favorites and the total is 235.5. Prices come from 15 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated (13 min ago) · from 15 sportsbooks · NBA betting splits
DraftKings bettors lean Heat on the spread (75% of tickets).
| Book | BetsHeat +7.5Warriors -7.5 | MoneyHeat +7.5Warriors -7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsHeat (+230)Warriors (-281) | MoneyHeat (+230)Warriors (-281) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
| Book | BetsOver 235.5Under 235.5 | MoneyOver 235.5Under 235.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| BetMGM | Bets only |
Splits data from DraftKings and BetMGM. BetMGM publishes bets only. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. Each line shows the share of dollars and trades buyers put on each side. Lines with under 10 trades or $500 are left out.
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread, total and player props for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +257Bet at Novig → exchange price | -264Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Spread | +7.5 -105Bet at Fliff → | -7.5 +104Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 235.5 | O +104Bet at Fanatics Markets → | U -108Bet at Courtside → |
As of 7:43 AM ET, the spread is Warriors -7.5 and the total is 235.5, with 15 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Heat ML | Warriors ML | Heat spread | Warriors spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +240 | -305 | +7.5 -106 | -7.5 -115 | O 235.5 -110 | U 235.5 -110 |
| BetMGM | +225 | -275 | +7.5 -110 | -7.5 -110 | O 235.5 -110 | U 235.5 -110 |
| betPARX | +240 | -305 | +7.5 -106 | -7.5 -115 | O 235.5 -110 | U 235.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | +240 | -305 | +7.5 -106 | -7.5 -115 | O 235.5 -110 | U 235.5 -110 |
| Courtside | +236 | -274 | +7.5 -114 | -7.5 -106 | O 235.5 -108 | U 235.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | +230 | -281 | +7.5 -114 | -7.5 -106 | O 235.5 -110 | U 235.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | +235 | -290 | +7.5 -110 | -7.5 -110 | O 235.5 -105 | U 235.5 -115 |
| Fliff | +215 | -275 | +7.5 -105 | -7.5 -120 | O 235.5 -110 | U 235.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +225 | -275 | +7.5 -110 | -7.5 -110 | O 235.5 -110 | U 235.5 -110 |
| ProphetX | +240 | -255 | +7.5 -109 | -7.5 +104 | O 235.5 +103 | U 235.5 -108 |
Prices from 15 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated (13 min ago). Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Miami Heat3rd in the Southeast · 1.5 GB · W1Golden State Warriors2nd in the Pacific · 1.5 GB · W5This spread opened at Warriors -4.5. It now sits at -8.5 on the consensus number. The Miami Heat reach Chase Center on the second night of a back-to-back, one night after an overtime win in Inglewood, while the Golden State Warriors have had two days of rest and are chasing a sixth straight win. The question for a bettor is simple: has the price already caught up to the schedule?
As of publication, the Heat are 3-5, third of five in the Southeast, 1.5 games back, on a one-game win streak. That win was Klay Thompson's buzzer-beating three in overtime, 117-116 over the Clippers. The Warriors are 5-3, second of five in the Pacific, 1.5 back, with five straight wins. This is the first Heat vs Warriors meeting of the season. The Warriors won the last one, 290 days ago.
The schedule is lopsided. The Heat are playing their third game in four days, game three of a road trip, with a late start on their home body clock. The Warriors are in game four of a home stand. Against the spread (beating the point margin the books set), the Warriors are 10-3 over 13 graded games. The Heat are 1-4 against the spread on the road over five road games.
Stephen Curry has played 6 of the Warriors' 8 games, and over his last five games he is averaging 31.4 points and 5.2 assists, up from 23.5 points over his last ten. Giannis Antetokounmpo has played all 8 Heat games, and over his last five he is averaging 28.2 points, 15.2 rebounds and 7.4 assists in 35.2 minutes a night. The workload is the worry. Giannis played 41 minutes last game and 106 over the last seven days. Bam Adebayo also played 41 last game, and Davion Mitchell played 43.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins. The Warriors are the favorite at -255 (best at ProphetX): risk $100 to profit $39.22, and you need to win 71.8% of the time to break even. Strip out the vig (the fee built into every price) and the market reads Warriors 72.1%, Heat 27.9%.
The spread is a bet on the margin. Heat +7.5 at -105 (best at Fliff) wins if the Heat win or lose by 7 or fewer. A half point means no push (no tie refund). With the consensus at -8.5, a Warriors backer gets a full point better at -7.5. It opened at 237.5 and has drifted to 234.5.
Expected value is your average result per bet if you made it many times. Warriors -7.5 at +102 needs 49.5% to break even. That is thin, but it is the best number on the board. As a market fact, 67% of spread tickets sit on the Heat, yet the line moved toward the Warriors.
Giannis is listed Day-To-Day on ESPN's report. That is uncertain, so confirm his status before the 10:00 PM ET tip on Thursday. The Warriors list four players out: Jimmy Butler III (right ACL repair), Gui Santos (left knee tendinitis), Kristaps Porzingis (not with team) and Moses Moody (left patellar tendon repair).
Break-even is 49.5%. This edge lives at that number and that price. A worse line or a worse price shrinks it or erases it, so shop before you click.
Our heat vs warriors prediction: fresh legs win the second half. Warriors 121, Heat 111. That adds to 232, under the 235.5 total, but the Under price is negative expectation, so we pass on it. A ten-point margin clears the 7.5. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Warriors is the market favorite at -264 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Heat at +257. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors game airs on NBA TV. It is played at Chase Center, an indoor arena, with tip-off set for Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
The game tips off Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center. The broadcast is on NBA TV. The Heat are on the second night of a back-to-back, while the Warriors have had two days of rest.
The Golden State Warriors are the favorite at -255 on the moneyline, and the Miami Heat are the underdog at +257. With the vig removed, the market reads about 72.1% Warriors and 27.9% Heat. The best spread available is Warriors -7.5.
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors NBA prediction, picks and best bet from the Wise Guy Desk. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 235.5, with the over priced at +104 at Fanatics Markets and the under at -108 at Courtside. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: NBA betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · NBA odds · FanDuel betting splits
Public is on Heat (73% of DraftKings tickets on the spread), DraftKings money leans Warriors (52%).
The spread opened Warriors -4.5 and is now -8.5; the total moved from 237.5 to 234.5; several books (3) moved the total on under to 234.5 together; the spread moved from -4.5 to -7 toward Warriors even though 67% of tickets are on Heat.
Golden State Warriors: Jimmy Butler III (out), Gui Santos (out), Kristaps Porzingis (out), Moses Moody (out).
On Kalshi, 83% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Warriors (4509 trades, $201k traded). On Polymarket, 68% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Warriors (481 trades, $38k traded). On Novig, 83% of the money traded on the moneyline is on the Warriors (171 trades, $6.6k traded). Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 5, 7:10 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.
