Exchange buyers: TSG Hoffenheim at Crystal Palace
We do not match a Kalshi or Polymarket soccer market to this game yet (soccer exchange tracking is still being turned on), so there is no exchange buyer data to show.
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim: odds, trends and our lean
📊 Match odds, best prices from the US sportsbooks we track Live prices as of 7:32 AM ET · 3-way moneyline · 90 minutes
| Crystal Palace win | Draw | TSG Hoffenheim win |
|---|---|---|
| -112Bet at ReBet → | +310Bet at DraftKings → | +290Bet at BetMGM → |
| Total goals 4.5: O -- () · U -- () | ||
What are the odds for Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim at each sportsbook?
As of 7:32 AM ET, Crystal Palace -112 on the moneyline and the total is 4.5, with 12 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Hoffenheim ML | Crystal Palace ML | Hoffenheim spread | Crystal Palace spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +285 | -120 | – | – | O 3.5 +120 | U 3.5 -155 |
| BetMGM | +290 | -120 | – | – | O 3.5 +115 | U 3.5 -160 |
| betPARX | +285 | -120 | – | – | O 3.5 +120 | U 3.5 -155 |
| BetRivers | +270 | -124 | – | – | O 3.5 +120 | U 3.5 -157 |
| Fliff | +270 | -130 | – | – | O 3.5 +105 | U 3.5 -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +275 | -120 | +0.5 -105 | -0.5 -120 | – | – |
| Caesars | +270 | -120 | – | – | – | – |
| DraftKings | +280 | -115 | – | – | – | – |
| Fanatics | +260 | -115 | – | – | – | – |
| FanDuel | +280 | -125 | – | – | – | – |
Prices from 12 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated (8 min ago). Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Chance of each result, per the betting market (vig removed)
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
Crystal PalaceLWLDL
TSG HoffenheimDLWWWEuropa League table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Ferencvaros | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Olympiacos | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Union St.-Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Crystal Palace win, TSG Hoffenheim win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. In this match, Crystal Palace at -112 means you risk $112 to profit $100. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
The Shot Chart and the Price Disagree
Crystal Palace have been outshot 19.75 to 6 per match over their last four. Yet 100% of tracked tickets are on them. The market still makes Palace roughly a coin flip at home against TSG Hoffenheim, a side riding a DLWWW run. When the eye test and the price point in different directions, a bettor should slow down and do the math. So let's do it.
The Matchup: How Have Crystal Palace and Hoffenheim Looked?
Palace's last five read LWLDL, newest first. Over their last four matches in all competitions they scored 4 and conceded 8. Their expected goals (a measure of chance quality, not a prediction) sit at 0.35 created and 2.29 allowed per match in that stretch, with just 32% possession. That is a team surviving, not controlling. Still, Palace sit 15th of 36 in the Europa League table with 4 points from 3 matches and a +3 goal difference.
Hoffenheim sit 23rd with 3 points from 3 and a goal difference of 0. Over 3 stored games this season, Hoffenheim average 18.33 shots and 5.33 on target per game, with 54.73% possession, while allowing 12 shots and 3.33 on target per game. Palace average 12 shots and 4.33 on target per game over their 3, allowing 11. Both clubs come in on 4 days of rest, and this is game 3 of a road trip for Hoffenheim.
How Soccer Betting Works
The moneyline is a bet on who wins. In soccer it is three-way: Palace win, Hoffenheim win, or a draw, all settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. That third outcome is the trap. Bet Palace at -105 and the match ends 1-1? You lose. Bet Hoffenheim at +270 and it ends 1-1? You lose too. A draw kills both win bets. Reading the odds: -105 means you risk $105 to win $100. +270 means $100 wins $270. The draw at +317 means $100 wins $317. The spread (a handicap on the margin) opened Palace -0.5 and has not moved. That simply means Palace must win outright.
The Numbers: What Are the Odds for Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim?
Best prices across the regulated books we track: Palace -105 at DraftKings, draw +317 at Kalshi, Hoffenheim +270 at Bally Bet. Line shopping, meaning you take the best number available across books, is the cheapest edge in betting. Strip out the vig (the house's built-in cut) and the market reads Palace 50%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim 26%.
The total (combined goals by both teams) is 3.5: Over +144 at Kalshi, Under -167 at BetRivers. It opened at 3.5 and has not budged. Palace are 3-0 to the over in 3 graded games this season. Hoffenheim are 1-2 over-under in 3. The public split shows 100% of tickets and 100% of money on Palace. That tells you where the crowd stands, not where the value is.
Where the Value Is
Expected value asks one question: if you made this exact bet many times at this price, would you come out ahead? Our fair price is the number where a bet breaks even by our estimate. Pass. The shot volume makes Hoffenheim tempting, and the market has already priced it in. Thin, yes. But positive, and a Palace side that gets outshot and still banks points looks like a team built to hang around in games.
Conditions: Where to Watch Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim?
Kickoff is Thursday, November 5 at 12:45 PM ET at Selhurst Park in London. If you are asking where to watch Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim, the match streams on Paramount+. The forecast calls for 73 F with wind at 15 mph from the southwest, a breeze worth keeping in mind for long balls and set pieces.
The Pick
Draw at +317, best at Kalshi. This is a number bet, not a hunch. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official play.
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The Prediction
Hoffenheim should have more of the ball and more of the shots. Palace have lived without the ball all season and still sit in the top half of the table. We see Hoffenheim controlling stretches without ever pulling clear, and Palace finding just enough at home. Projected score: Crystal Palace 1, Hoffenheim 1. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below if you want to see how we size the next one.
More Europa League matchups
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim FAQ
Who is favored in Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim?
Crystal Palace is the market favorite at -112 (best price at ReBet) on the moneyline, with TSG Hoffenheim at +290. The draw is priced at +310. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Where to watch Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim?
Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim streams on Paramount+. The Europa League match kicks off Thursday, November 5 at 12:45 PM ET at Selhurst Park in London.
What time does Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim start?
Kickoff is Thursday, November 5 at 12:45 PM ET at Selhurst Park in London. The forecast calls for 73 F with wind at 15 mph from the southwest.
What are the odds for Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim?
Best prices across the books we track: Crystal Palace -105 at DraftKings, draw +317 at Kalshi, TSG Hoffenheim +270 at Bally Bet. The total is 3.5 goals, with Over +144 at Kalshi and Under -167 at BetRivers.
Where do Crystal Palace and Hoffenheim sit in the Europa League table?
Crystal Palace are 15th of 36 with 4 points from 3 matches and a +3 goal difference. TSG Hoffenheim are 23rd of 36 with 3 points from 3 matches and a goal difference of 0.
Can you bet on a draw in Europa League?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Europa League picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · FanDuel betting splits
Quick answers
Who is the public betting on in TSG Hoffenheim vs Crystal Palace?
Public is on Palace (100% of tracked tickets on the moneyline), the money is also on Palace (100%).
Where has the TSG Hoffenheim vs Crystal Palace line moved?
The spread has held at Palace -0.5 since it opened; the total has held at 3.5.
As of Nov 3, 4:46 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.