Exchange buyers: which side buyers took (Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX)
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
How to read these numbers
Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of trades since the market opened and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Kalshi
Match result$63k traded · 1.4k trades
Sporting CPDrawShakhtar Donetsk
Trades
Money
Total 2.5$1.3k traded · 51 trades · $1.6k open
Over 2.5Under 2.5
Trades
Money
Light trading: $1.3k so far, percentages can swingPolymarket
Match result$2.2k traded · 106 trades
Sporting CPDrawShakhtar Donetsk
Trades
Money
Light trading: $2.2k so far, percentages can swingNovig
Match result$1.9k traded · 43 trades
Sporting CPDrawShakhtar Donetsk
Trades
Money
Light trading: $1.9k so far, percentages can swingProphetX
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
Sporting CPDrawShakhtar Donetsk
47¢26¢27¢
ProphetX does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Polymarket US
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
Sporting CPDrawShakhtar Donetsk
48¢26¢27¢
Polymarket US does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Fanatics Markets
Match result pricesprice to buy each outcome
Sporting CPDrawShakhtar Donetsk
48¢26¢27¢
Fanatics Markets does not publish trades, so there is no split of buyers. These are its prices.
Polymarket US: prices only
Polymarket US lists moneyline, spread and alternate and period lines for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket and is never added into its numbers.
- Moneyline: Yes 25% chance (price only)
- Moneyline: Yes 26% chance (price only)
- Moneyline: Yes 47% chance (price only)
- First half moneyline: Yes 22% chance (price only)
- First half moneyline: Yes 37% chance (price only)
- First half spread 1.5: -1.50 3% chance (price only)
- First half spread 1.5: +1.50 87% chance (price only)
- First half spread 2.5: -2.50 1% chance (price only)
- First half spread 2.5: +2.50 85% chance (price only)
- Second half moneyline: Yes 2% chance (price only)
- Second half moneyline: Yes 29% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 1.5: -1.50 1% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 1.5: +1.50 1% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 2.5: -2.50 1% chance (price only)
- Second half spread 2.5: +2.50 1% chance (price only)
- Spread 1.5: -1.50 10% chance (price only)
Where to bet this game
Odds for this matchup are not posted yet. These are the regulated US sportsbooks we partner with; the best price lands here the moment the books hang a line.
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📊 Match Breakdown real data · updated daily
Form, last 5 matches (W win · D draw · L loss)
Shakhtar DonetskDWDLL
Sporting CPWLLWWChampions League table
| Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
How to read this: the result probabilities come from the actual betting odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out. Soccer has THREE outcomes, and the draw is priced like a real contender, not an afterthought.
🛈 Wise Guy Desk analysis - not an official play. A free breakdown to help you find value and bet the best number. Ross's documented plays are graded win or loss on the members board.
📘 New to soccer betting? The one rule that surprises everyone. Soccer uses a three-way moneyline: you bet Shakhtar Donetsk win, Sporting CP win, or the draw, settled after 90 minutes plus stoppage. Unlike American sports, a tie does NOT refund your bet, a draw beats BOTH win bets. The total is combined goals by both teams, usually set at 2.5. +EV means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (vig removed). Learn free: Sports Betting 101 · Odds converter · No-vig calculator
Sporting Lisbon vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction: The Table and the Rating Disagree
Sporting CP sits 12th in the Champions League table. Shakhtar Donetsk sits 17th. Yet our rating makes Shakhtar the 55% side, and Shakhtar is 3-0 against the spread this season, every time as the underdog. When the standings and the math disagree, a bettor should slow down. No prices are posted yet, so we get to do the homework first.
How Have Sporting and Shakhtar Been Playing?
Sporting CP (Sporting Lisbon to most American fans) is W-L-L-W-W over its last five, newest first. It won its latest match after two straight losses. It has 6 points from 3 Champions League matches and a +3 goal difference (goals scored minus goals allowed). Shakhtar is D-W-D-L-L, unbeaten in three, with 4 points and a +1 goal difference.
On goals, Sporting scores 1.8 and allows 1.4 per league match over 10. Shakhtar scores 1.33 and allows 1.78 over 9. Per-game averages from 3 stored games this season: Sporting takes 11.67 shots with 4.67 on target, and allows just 3 on target even with opponents holding 61.7% possession. Shakhtar takes 10.67 shots with 3.33 on target and holds 52% possession. Three games is a sketch, not a verdict.
How Soccer Betting Works: The Draw Is a Third Outcome
A moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. In the NFL there are two outcomes. Soccer has three: Shakhtar wins, Sporting wins, or a draw. That is the three-way moneyline. Bet Sporting and it ends 1-1? You lose. Same for a Shakhtar bet. The draw beats both win bets, which is why both sides usually pay more than you might expect. When prices post, you will see three numbers, not two. One fix is draw no bet: you pick a side, and if the match is drawn, your stake comes back. You trade some payout for that insurance.
Who Is Favored to Win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting Lisbon?
With no odds posted, there is no market favorite yet. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, has Shakhtar at 55% and Sporting at 45%. That is context, not a bet. It rests on only 9 rated Shakhtar games (23 for Sporting), and the two numbers sum to 100, so the draw gets no share.
Against the spread (one side gets a goal head start, so the margin matters), Shakhtar is 3-0 in 3 graded games, all as the underdog. Sporting is 2-1 in 3. On the over-under (a bet on total goals), Sporting is 2-1 in 3 games, Shakhtar 1-2 in 3. When Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting Lisbon odds post, compare all three prices at every book you can access and take the best one. Small price gaps decide long-run results.
Where the Value Is
Books bake a fee, called the vig, into every price. Convert the three prices into implied probabilities and they add up past 100%. Scale them back to 100% and you have the no-vig fair price. Value lives only where the best available price pays more than fair.
Expected value (EV) puts that in dollars. As an illustration only, not this match: a bet paying $175 profit on $100 that wins 40% of the time makes $70 on the wins and loses $60 on the losses.
Our read: Sporting is the better side on the evidence. It has the higher table spot, more goals, more shots on target and fewer shots on target allowed. But Shakhtar's underdog run and our rating say not to pay up on a straight Sporting win. Draw no bet fits. It backs the stronger profile and refunds you if Shakhtar, with two draws in its last five, grinds one out.
Conditions
The match is at Stamford Bridge in London. The forecast is 50 F with a 10 mph wind from the northeast, cool and mild. Both clubs have 12 days of rest. Sporting traveled 982 miles from home with no time-zone change. Shakhtar traveled 597 miles from its last game in Milano and crossed one time zone west. Kickoff is Tuesday, November 3 at 12:45 PM ET on Paramount+.
The Pick
Sporting CP draw no bet. Prices are not posted, so there is no best price or book to name yet. When the market opens, shop every book, take the best draw no bet number on Sporting, and pass if it does not beat your fair price. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis, not an official Wise Guy Team play.
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The Prediction
Shakhtar allows 1.78 goals per league match and Sporting scores 1.8, which points to Sporting finding two. Shakhtar scores 1.33 per match against Sporting's 1.4 allowed, enough to get one back. We project Sporting 2, Shakhtar 1. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
More Champions League matchups
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP FAQ
Who is favored in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP has the better table spot and stronger shot numbers, so we lean Sporting draw no bet once the board opens.
Who is favored to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting Lisbon?
Match odds are not posted yet, so there is no market favorite. Our Elo rating gives Shakhtar Donetsk 55% and Sporting CP 45%, as context only. Sporting sits higher in the Champions League table, 12th of 36 with 6 points, while Shakhtar is 17th with 4 points.
What time is the Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting Lisbon game?
Kickoff is Tuesday, November 3 at 12:45 PM ET at Stamford Bridge in London. The match is on Paramount+. The forecast for kickoff calls for 50 F with a 10 mph wind from the northeast.
Can you bet on a draw in Champions League?
Yes. Soccer's standard bet is the three-way moneyline: home win, away win, or draw in 90 minutes. The draw is a real, often valuable outcome, and a draw makes both win bets lose, which is the biggest adjustment for bettors coming from American sports.
Are these Champions League picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
More for this game: Soccer betting splits · DraftKings betting splits