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As of Oct 9, 1:28 PM ET, moneyline tickets split 4% Iowa State, 96% BYU, and the money splits 7% Iowa State, 93% BYU (licensed market-data feed, the same numbers as our betting splits board).
| Market | Iowa State Cyclones | BYU Cougars |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +365Bet at Novig → | -376Bet at Novig → |
| Spread | +10.5 -104Bet at Novig → | -10.5 -102Bet at Novig → |
| Total 46.5 | O +106Bet at Novig → | U -108Bet at Novig → |
Iowa State Cyclones9th in the Big 12 ConferenceBYU Cougars2nd in the Big 12 Conference
Bear Bachmeier (BYU)55/86, 704 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
Jaylen Raynor (ISU)69/119, 903 YDS, 6 TD, 4 INTNovig is offering +365 on the Iowa State Cyclones to win this game outright. That same market, with the sportsbook's built-in commission stripped out, says the Cyclones win about 22.2% of the time. A +365 ticket only needs 21.5% to break even. That gap is small, it is real, and it is the most interesting thing on this board, because both sides of the spread are priced worse than the market's own read.
Iowa State vs BYU kicks off Friday, October 9, 2026 at 10:15 PM ET from LaVell Edwards Stadium, a Week 6 Big 12 nightcap. As of publication the Iowa State Cyclones are 3-2 and the BYU Cougars are 4-0. In the conference standings Iowa State sits 9th of 16 and BYU sits 2nd of 16. So the shape of BYU vs Iowa State is straightforward: an unbeaten home team that the market trusts, against a visitor that has already dropped two games and now has to survive a loud late kickoff on the road.
Bear Bachmeier has been efficient for BYU: 55 completions on 86 attempts for 704 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception. That is a little over 8 yards per throw with almost no giveaways. Jaylen Raynor has thrown it far more often for Iowa State: 69 of 119 for 903 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. More volume, more production, more risk. Four picks against one is the cleanest explanation for why this spread is double digits.
Three bets are on offer. The moneyline is simply a bet on who wins, margin irrelevant: Iowa State +365 and BYU -376, both best priced at Novig. The point spread is a bet on the winning margin: Iowa State +10.5 at -104 (Novig) wins if the Cyclones win outright or lose by 10 or fewer, and it loses on an 11-point defeat, with no tie possible at a half point.
BYU -10.5 at -102 (Novig) wins only on a victory by 11 or more, and a 10-point win loses. The total is the combined score of both teams: 46.5, with Over +106 and Under -108, again best at Novig. Shopping those prices matters. A -104 instead of -110 costs nothing extra and compounds over a season.
Break-even is the win rate a price needs just to stop losing money. At +365 on Iowa State, a $100 bet profits $365.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, break-even 21.5%, against a no-vig market probability of 22.2%. Expected result: plus $3.23 per $100 risked. Fair price for 22.2% is about +350, so we are getting 15 cents extra.
BYU -376 profits $26.60 per $100 risked and needs 79%, above the market's own 77.8%, for minus $1.51 per $100 risked. On the spread, Iowa State +10.5 needs 51% and the no-vig cover number for that line is 50.5% (minus $0.94 per $100 risked); BYU -10.5 needs 50.5% against 49.5% (minus $1.97 per $100 risked). Both spread sides lose money on paper. Over 46.5 at +106 needs 48.5% against 49.5%, plus $1.97 per $100 risked. Under -108 is minus $2.74 per $100 risked.
Iowa State Cyclones moneyline +365 at Novig, staked small. It is the only side here priced above the market's own number, and the +$3.23 per $100 risked is an average over many bets, not a payout. Secondary: Over 46.5 at +106, also Novig. We pass on the spread entirely.
BYU 27, Iowa State 23. That adds to 50 points, which is over the 46.5 total. Bachmeier protects the ball, Raynor forces one into coverage, and the Cougars win without ever pulling clear. In that script the dog ticket loses and we are fine with it, because at +365 we only need this to happen a bit more than one time in five. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play most days right below.
BYU is the market favorite at -376 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Iowa State at +365. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
BYU is the 10.5-point home favorite, but the +365 price on Iowa State pays more than the market's own math, and that is where our lean sits. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 46.5, with the over priced at +106 at Novig and the under at -108 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
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