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Toledo Rockets play at Detroit Mercy Titans in college basketball on Saturday, November 14, at Calihan Hall. As of 7:12 PM ET, Toledo are 9.5-point favorites and the total is 153.5. Prices come from 9 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans shop every book). A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 9 sportsbooks · college basketball betting splits
Kalshi and Polymarket list this game, but not enough has traded yet to show the buyers (we show markets with at least 10 trades and $500 traded).
Polymarket US lists moneyline for this game. No trade split yet for these markets (none captured, or too few to show), so they show prices only. Polymarket US is a separate venue from Polymarket (international) and is never added into its numbers.
| Market | Toledo Rockets | Detroit Mercy Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -412Bet at Courtside → | +375Bet at FanDuel → |
| Spread | -9.5 -110Bet at FanDuel → | +9.5 -103Bet at Courtside → |
| Total 153.5 | O -103Bet at Courtside → | U -105Bet at FanDuel → |
As of 7:12 PM ET, the spread is Toledo -9.5 and the total is 153.5, with 9 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Toledo ML | Detroit Mercy ML | Toledo spread | Detroit Mercy spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -450 | +350 | -9.5 -115 | +9.5 -105 | O 153.5 -110 | U 153.5 -110 |
| Courtside | -412 | +339 | -9.5 -113 | +9.5 -103 | O 153.5 -103 | U 153.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | -425 | +330 | -9.5 -115 | +9.5 -105 | O 153.5 -105 | U 153.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | -450 | +340 | -9.5 -110 | +9.5 -110 | O 153.5 -110 | U 153.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | -500 | +375 | -9.5 -110 | +9.5 -110 | O 153.5 -115 | U 153.5 -105 |
| ProphetX | -560 | +340 | -9.5 -110 | +9.5 -103 | O 153.5 -108 | U 153.5 -109 |
| Caesars | – | – | -9.5 -110 | +9.5 -110 | O 153.5 -110 | U 153.5 -110 |
| Novig | -488 | +355 | – | – | O 153.5 -108 | U 153.5 -120 |
| theScore Bet | – | – | -9.5 -115 | +9.5 -105 | O 153.5 -105 | U 153.5 -115 |
Prices from 9 sportsbooks we track, updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Our no-vig fair price on this game is for members. The posted odds are on this page; the fair line, and whether any book is hanging a number worth betting, live in the members' Odds Screen. Start your $1 trial →
Tyler Spratt (DETM)8.0 PPG (2 GP)
Mynor Strong (TOL)16.8 PPG (4 GP)Prices are posted now. Best prices as of 7:12 PM ET: Toledo Rockets -412 at Courtside, Detroit Mercy Titans +375 at FanDuel. The full best-price table sits at the top of this page.
Over their last 10 stored games, the Toledo Rockets scored 110.1 points per 100 possessions while the Detroit Mercy Titans scored 102.5. Our rating model still makes Detroit Mercy a 55% favorite. A possession is one trip down the floor with the ball, and points per 100 possessions measures how efficiently a team scores no matter how fast it plays. Here is how we read Toledo vs Detroit Mercy before the books show their hand.
As of publication, Toledo is 1-3 and Detroit Mercy is 0-2. It is very early. Toledo is four games into the season and Detroit Mercy only two, so neither record tells us anything about form. Detroit Mercy hosts at Calihan Hall on Saturday, November 14, at 4:00 PM ET, streaming on ESPN+. The only head-to-head fact we have is that these teams last met 364 days ago, and Detroit Mercy lost. Rest is even. Both teams get three days off, and neither is on a back-to-back. Toledo makes a 53-mile trip. Detroit Mercy's last game was in Cincinnati, 234 miles away. Neither team changes time zones.
Mynor Strong is Toledo's engine. He averages 16.8 points per game over all four of Toledo's games, in 30.8 minutes a night. Over his last five games he averages 14.8 points, and 13.4 over his last 10. Detroit Mercy's scoring leader is Tyler Spratt at 8.0 points per game over two games, which is a small sample.
Over his last five games he averages 8.2 points, and 9.3 over his last 10, in 27 minutes per game. Minutes tell a story too. In its last game, Toledo leaned hard on Sean Jones (34), Jaylan Ouwinga (33) and Strong (32). Detroit Mercy spread it out more, with Xavier Istomin-Monroe at 25, Spratt at 24 and London Maiden at 22.
When they arrive, you will see three main bets. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins. The spread is a handicap: the favorite must win by more than a set number of points, and the underdog can lose by less than that number and still cash. The total, or over-under, is a bet on combined points. Who is favored? The market has not said.
Our rating leans Detroit Mercy 55% to 45%, and that is context, not a bet. Toledo is 2-2 against the spread (meaning versus the betting handicap) in four graded games, 2-1 on the road and 2-2 as an underdog. It has also gone under the total in all four of its games. Four games is a tiny sample. Both teams play at a similar speed, 69.5 and 69.1 possessions per game over their last 10 stored games.
Expected value is the average profit or loss per $100 risked if you made the same bet over and over. To find it, you strip out the vig, which is the commission the book builds into every price. What remains is the market-implied probability with the vig removed. Then you compare that with the best price available. Here is our setup. If the market agrees with our rating and makes Detroit Mercy the favorite, Toledo's efficiency edge could be underpriced. We are putting no weight on Toledo's 21.25% three-point shooting across four games, because that sample is too small to mean much either way.
Toledo Rockets, as a matchup lean. No price exists yet, so check every book and take the best moneyline you can find. If Toledo opens as a clear favorite, most of the case disappears. If you prefer the spread on Toledo as an underdog, more points is always better at the same price.
At roughly 69 possessions, the efficiency gap points to a close road win for Toledo. Our Detroit Mercy vs Toledo prediction: Toledo 74, Detroit Mercy 70. That projects 144 total points. That is our read before the market speaks. The Desk's documented free daily play sits right below if you want to see how we handle a priced number.
Toledo is the market favorite at -412 (best price at Courtside) on the moneyline, with Detroit Mercy at +375. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Toledo vs Detroit Mercy streams on ESPN+. The Detroit Mercy Titans host the Toledo Rockets at Calihan Hall on Saturday, November 14, with tipoff set for 4:00 PM Eastern time.
The game tips off Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM Eastern time at Calihan Hall, and it streams on ESPN+. Both teams come in with three days of rest, and neither is playing a back-to-back.
Sportsbooks had not posted odds as of publication. As context only, our Elo rating gives the Detroit Mercy Titans a 55% chance to win and the Toledo Rockets 45%. That rating is not a bet, so check posted lines once books open the game.
Toledo's scoring efficiency points one way and our rating points the other, and we lean Toledo a number worth taking. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 153.5, with the over priced at -103 at Courtside and the under at -105 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college basketball odds · FanDuel betting splits
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