Southern Utah vs Wake Forest Prediction: Can 18.5 Points Hold?
Wake Forest is laying 18.5 points at home. The books could not even agree on that number at the open. The Southern Utah Thunderbirds visit the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Saturday, November 14 at 4:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum, streaming on ACCNX. It is very early in the season, so the prices tell us more than the records do.
Who Is Favored to Win Southern Utah vs Wake Forest?
Wake Forest is the clear favorite. The books we track posted no moneyline (a straight bet on who wins outright), so the point spread carries the message. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives Wake Forest a 73% chance to win and Southern Utah 27%. That is context, not a bet. As of publication, Southern Utah is 3-1 four games into the season and Wake Forest is 2-1 three games in.
That is too early to call form. The schedule does favor the home team. Southern Utah plays on 1 day of rest, in game 2 of a road trip, after traveling 17 miles from High Point, where the headlines say it lost 88-59. Wake Forest has 3 days of rest in game 2 of a home stand. Neither team changes time zones.
Players to Watch
Wake Forest's leading scorer is Kevair Kennedy at 16.3 points per game over three games, a small sample. He also played a team-high 31 minutes last game. Southern Utah's leader is Anthony Breland at 14.2 points per game over four games. The team numbers are thin too. Over four stored games, Southern Utah has averaged 54.75% shooting, 50.25 rebounds and 62 points in the paint per game.
Over three stored games, Wake Forest has averaged 43.33% shooting and 33.33 rebounds per game. The bigger story is pace. A possession is one trip down the floor. Over its last 10 stored games, Southern Utah has averaged 72.5 possessions per game and 122.5 points per 100 possessions. Wake Forest has averaged 67.8 and 113.
Southern Utah vs Wake Forest Odds and Spread
The spread is a handicap. Southern Utah +18.5 at -103 (best at Courtside) wins if Southern Utah wins outright or loses by 18 or fewer. It loses on a 19-point loss. A $100 bet profits $97.09, and it needs to win 50.7% of the time to break even. That is the lowest break-even on the board. Wake Forest -18.5 at -110 (best at Caesars) wins only by 19 or more. A $100 bet profits $90.91, with a 52.4% break-even.
The total, or over/under, is 155.5 combined points. The Under at -105 (best at FanDuel) profits $95.24, with a 51.2% break-even. The Southern Utah vs Wake Forest spread opened anywhere from -19.5 at FanDuel to -18.5 at DraftKings, a 1-point gap. Comparing books before you bet is called line shopping. Wake Forest is 0-3 against the spread and 1-2 on over/unders in three games. That is far too few to mean anything.
Where the Value Is
Books build in a commission called the vig. Strip it out and you get the no-vig number, the market-implied probability with that cut removed. Expected value is your average result per $100 risked over many bets. Here every side comes out negative. Wake Forest covers 51.2% against 52.4%, minus $2.33. The Over hits 50.8% against 51.9%, minus $2.23. The Under hits 49.2% against 51.2%, minus $3.88. The Over carries the smallest expected loss per $100. Add the matchup, a 72.5-possession team meeting a 67.8-possession team, and that is where we land.
The Pick
Over 155.5 at -108 at Courtside. It needs 51.9% to break even, and the market's no-vig read is 50.8%, so this is a matchup lean, not a math edge. Keep the stake small. A worse price at another book raises the break-even, so get the -108. This is Desk analysis, not an official documented play.
FREE · NO CARD · EVERY DAY
That was the Desk's read. Want the documented free play too?
Ross's free VIP play lands in your inbox whenever one is on the board, by 5 PM ET on weekdays and by noon ET on weekends. Every play is posted before the game and graded in public, win or lose. The Official board: 6 straight winning years.
Unsubscribe anytime in one tap. No spam, just the play and the receipts.
The Prediction
We see Wake Forest vs Southern Utah turning into a faster game than the Demon Deacons usually play. Wake Forest wins comfortably, but the tempo pushes the scoreboard. Projected final: Wake Forest 86, Southern Utah 72. That adds up to 158 points, over 155.5. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.
Southern Utah vs Wake Forest FAQ
Who is favored in Southern Utah vs Wake Forest?
Wake Forest lays 18.5 points at home, while a fast-paced Southern Utah arrives on one day of rest, four games into the season.
Where to watch Southern Utah vs Wake Forest?
The Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Wake Forest Demon Deacons game streams on ACCNX. It tips off Saturday, November 14 at 4:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum, the indoor home arena of Wake Forest.
Who is favored to win Southern Utah vs Wake Forest?
Wake Forest is the favorite. The best spread we track is Wake Forest -18.5 at -110 at Caesars, with Southern Utah +18.5 at -103 at Courtside. Our Elo rating, used only as context, gives Wake Forest a 73% chance to win.
What time is the Southern Utah vs Wake Forest game?
Tip-off is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM Eastern time at LJVM Coliseum. The game is broadcast on ACCNX. The total is 155.5 points, with the best Over price at Courtside and the best Under price at FanDuel.
Who will win Wake Forest vs Southern Utah?
Wake Forest lays 18.5 points at home, while a fast-paced Southern Utah arrives on one day of rest, four games into the season. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
What is the total (over/under) for Southern Utah vs Wake Forest?
The total is 155.5, with the over priced at -104 at Novig and the under at -105 at FanDuel. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Are these College Basketball picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value in College Basketball games?
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Trends and history
Southern Utah Thunderbirds ATS record and trends →