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DraftKings bettors and Circa money lean the same way on the spread: Davidson Wildcats (95% of DraftKings tickets, 100% of Circa money).
| Book | BetsHoward Bison +10.5Davidson Wildcats -10.5 | MoneyHoward Bison +10.5Davidson Wildcats -10.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) |
Splits data from DraftKings and Circa. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Howard Bison | Davidson Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 | -10.5 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Last read before tip-off .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | -9.5 | -10.5 | n/a |
| Total | 141.5 | 141.5 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | +420 / -590 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before tip-off, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
| Market | Howard Bison | Davidson Wildcats |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +376Bet at Polymarket → exchange price | -375Bet at Fanatics → |
Nick Janowski (DAV)19.3 PPG (3 GP)
Cedric Taylor III (HOW)18.0 PPG (4 GP)Davidson sits at -375, which means the favorite has to win 78.9% of the time just to break even. The market says it wins about 79%. That gap is so thin you can barely see it. The Howard Bison visit the Davidson Wildcats at John M. Belk Arena on Saturday, November 14, with tip at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. The bettor's question is not who wins. It is whether either price is worth paying.
Davidson is the favorite and Howard is the underdog. It is very early. Howard is 2-2 four games into the season, and Davidson is 3-0 three games in. That is too small a sample to call form, so we are not treating either record as a trend. Schedule matters more here. Davidson has 3 days of rest and is playing game 3 of a home stand with no travel.
Howard has 1 day of rest, is not on a back-to-back, and traveled 314 miles with no time-zone change. Against the spread (ATS) means whether a team beat the point handicap the market set. Davidson is 3-0 ATS over three. Those are tiny samples. Our rating, an Elo model built from stored results, gives Davidson 66% to win, well below the market. We treat that as context, not a bet.
Cedric Taylor III drives Howard at 18.0 points per game over all four games this season. He is at 18.2 points per game over his last 5 games (16.8 over 10) and plays 32.8 minutes a night. A Nov 12 headline had him scoring 22 as Howard took down Stetson 75-62. He played 36 minutes last game and 73 over the past 7 days.
Nick Janowski leads Davidson at 19.3 points per game over three games, a small sample. He logged 36 minutes last game and 69 over 7 days. The style clash is real. Howard averages 13.5 fast-break points per game over four games. Davidson averages 4 per game over three. Howard runs 69.2 possessions per game against Davidson's 65.7 over their last 10 stored games.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. A minus price shows the favorite. A plus price shows the underdog. Davidson Wildcats -375 is best at Fanatics: a $100 bet profits $26.67 if Davidson wins and loses $100 if it does not. Break-even, the win rate you need to not lose money long term, is 78.9%. Howard Bison +376 is best at Polymarket: a $100 bet profits $351.23 after the book's fee and loses $100 otherwise, with a 22.2% break-even.
Always shop for the best number. The spread opened at Davidson -9 and has not moved, but no spread prices are posted in our feed, so we are not grading it. The total, the combined points of both teams, opened at 128.5 and sits at 141.5 after 4 moves. With no Over or Under price available, we are not grading that either.
Every price carries vig, the book's built-in commission. That is market-implied probability with the vig removed, not a guarantee. Howard's 21% falls short of its 22.2% break-even, so even the best underdog price does not clear the bar. Davidson's 79% sits a hair above its 78.9% break-even. Expected value is your average result per bet if you could make it many times.
At -375, each win pays $26.67 and each loss costs $100. If Davidson wins about as often as the market says, those roughly cancel out. Any price worse than -375 raises the break-even past the market's 79%. Our rating is more skeptical at 66%, which is another reason to keep this small.
We lean Davidson Wildcats moneyline at -375 at Fanatics. It is a thin lean, built on the price and the rest edge, and it only holds at this number or better. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
Davidson controls the tempo at home on fresher legs, and Howard's transition game keeps it respectable. Our davidson vs howard prediction: Davidson 75, Howard 66. That adds to 141, half a point under the 141.5 total, though with no Over or Under price posted we are not grading the total. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Davidson is the market favorite at -375 (best price at Fanatics) on the moneyline, with Howard at +376. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Howard vs Davidson streams on ESPN+. The Howard Bison visit the Davidson Wildcats at John M. Belk Arena, an indoor venue, on Saturday, November 14, 2026, with tip-off set for 7:00 PM Eastern time.
The Davidson Wildcats are the favorite at -375, best at Fanatics, and the Howard Bison are the underdog at +376, best at Polymarket. With the bookmaker's commission removed, the market makes it about 79% Davidson and 21% Howard.
Tip-off is Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM Eastern time at John M. Belk Arena. The game streams on ESPN+. Davidson has 3 days of rest entering it, and Howard has 1 day of rest after traveling 314 miles.
Davidson at -375 is priced almost exactly on its break-even, so we lean the Wildcats only at the Fanatics number and only with a small stake. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 141.5. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
The spread has held at Wildcats -9 since it opened; the total moved from 128.5 to 141.5.
As of Nov 13, 10:40 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.