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DraftKings bettors lean IU Indianapolis Jaguars on the spread (50% of tickets).
| Book | BetsIU Indianapolis Jaguars -1.5Morehead State Eagles +1.5 | MoneyIU Indianapolis Jaguars -1.5Morehead State Eagles +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsIU Indianapolis Jaguars (-125)Morehead State Eagles (+105) | MoneyIU Indianapolis Jaguars (-125)Morehead State Eagles (+105) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
| Book | BetsOver 158.5Under 158.5 | MoneyOver 158.5Under 158.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
Splits data from DraftKings. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
Last read before tip-off .
| Market | Opened | Closed | Circa closed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (home line) | +2.5 | +1.5 | n/a |
| Total | 162.5 | 158.5 | n/a |
| Moneyline (away / home) | n/a | -130 / +110 | n/a |
Opened is the first number we saw and closed the last before tip-off, the median across the books we track. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book, shown as a reference.
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Clayton Parker (MORE)18.3 PPG (3 GP)
Gus Etchison (IUIN)16.0 PPG (3 GP)The betting market makes the road team the favorite. Our rating, a model built on past results, gives the home team a 77% chance to win. That gap is the story of IU Indianapolis vs Morehead State. The IU Indianapolis Jaguars visit the Morehead State Eagles at Ellis T. Johnson Arena on Saturday, November 14, at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN+. Only one side of that argument can be right.
First, a warning. It is very early. Both teams are only three games into the season. IU Indianapolis is 3-0 and Morehead State is 1-2 as of Friday, and three games is far too few to call anything form. The schedule tells us more. IU Indianapolis comes in on 2 days of rest after traveling 182 miles from home. Morehead State has had 6 days of rest since its last game, in Louisville, 126 miles away.
Neither team is on a back-to-back, and neither changes time zones. The only head-to-head note we have is the last meeting, 350 days ago, which Morehead State lost. Style is the real clash. Over their last 10 stored games, IU Indianapolis plays at 74.4 possessions per game (a possession is one trip down the floor with the ball). Morehead State plays at 66.7. Their efficiency is close: 111.1 points per 100 possessions for IU Indianapolis, 112.2 for Morehead State.
Clayton Parker leads Morehead State at 18.3 points per game over three games, a small sample. Gus Etchison leads IU Indianapolis at 16.0 points per game over three games, also a small sample. Etchison logged 28 minutes last game, the most on his team. The team numbers are per-game averages over just three games, so treat them as clues, not habits. IU Indianapolis has forced 21 turnovers per game with 10 steals. Morehead State is hitting 34.33% from three.
The point spread is a handicap that evens out the teams. The consensus opened Morehead State +2.5 and has not moved. That makes IU Indianapolis a 2.5-point favorite. A Morehead State +2.5 bet wins if the Eagles win outright or lose by 1 or 2. The half point means no tie is possible. The total, or over/under, is a bet on combined points. It opened at 161.5 and now sits at 162.5 after one move.
Six books disagreed at the open, from 161.5 at FanDuel to 162.5 at Caesars. Prices (the cost of each bet, which includes the book's cut, called the vig) are not posted yet. That means no moneyline (a straight bet on who wins) to quote. The best number still matters. For a Morehead State backer, +3 beats +2.5, because a three-point loss would push, meaning a refund.
Normally we strip the vig from both sides to get the no-vig price, the market's implied chance with the book's cut removed. Then we compare it to the best available price. That comparison gives expected value: the average profit or loss per $100 risked over many bets. With no prices posted, we cannot run that math, and we will not invent it.
What we can say is this. Our rating's 77% for Morehead State against a market that makes them the underdog is context, not a bet. Our case for the Eagles is a matchup case: the home floor, four extra days of rest, and a slower pace. Fewer possessions give a favorite fewer chances to pull away.
Morehead State +2.5, as a matchup lean. Price is not posted yet. When it is, check every book. Take +3 anywhere it appears, and favor the price that asks you to risk the least. This is Desk analysis, not an official play.
We see Morehead State vs IU Indianapolis staying tight into the final minutes, with the rested home side controlling the tempo late. Projected score: Morehead State 82, IU Indianapolis 79. That adds to 161, a point and a half under the 162.5 total, though we are not playing the total. That is our read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play every day, and it sits right below.
The market makes IU Indianapolis a 2.5-point road favorite, but rest and the home floor push us to Morehead State +2.5 as a matchup lean.
IU Indianapolis vs Morehead State streams on ESPN+. The game is played at Ellis T. Johnson Arena, home of the Morehead State Eagles, with tip-off set for Saturday, November 14, at 7:30 PM Eastern time.
The consensus spread opened with Morehead State as a 2.5-point underdog and had not moved. That makes the IU Indianapolis Jaguars a 2.5-point road favorite. The total opened at 161.5 and moved to 162.5. Moneyline prices were not posted yet.
The IU Indianapolis Jaguars and Morehead State Eagles tip off Saturday, November 14, at 7:30 PM Eastern time at Ellis T. Johnson Arena. The game is available to stream on ESPN+.
The market makes IU Indianapolis a 2.5-point road favorite, but rest and the home floor push us to Morehead State +2.5 as a matchup lean. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
The spread has held at Eagles +2.5 since it opened; the total moved from 161.5 to 162.5.
As of Nov 13, 9:01 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.