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Ball State Cardinals play at SMU Mustangs in college basketball on Friday, November 13, at Moody Coliseum (Dallas). As of 7:21 PM ET, SMU are 22.5-point favorites and the total is 150.5. Prices come from 13 sportsbooks we track. A prediction is an estimate from the market and the matchup, not a certain result.
Prices updated · from 13 sportsbooks · college basketball betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: spread now Mustangs -22.5, was Mustangs -23.5; total now 150.5, was 153.5.
Public is on SMU spread (60% of DraftKings tickets), but Circa money leans Ball State (74%).
| Book | BetsBall State +22.5SMU -22.5 | MoneyBall State +22.5SMU -22.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | ||
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) |
| Book | BetsOver 150.5Under 150.5 | MoneyOver 150.5Under 150.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
Splits data from DraftKings and Circa. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Ball State Cardinals | SMU Mustangs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +22.5 | -22.5 |
. Circa is a sharp Las Vegas book. Its numbers are a reference for where the number sits, not a price you can take here.
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
| Market | Ball State Cardinals | SMU Mustangs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +22.5 -102Bet at FanDuel → | -22.5 +100Bet at Novig → exchange price |
| Total 150.5 | O +100Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -106Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 7:21 PM ET, the spread is SMU -22.5 and the total is 150.5, with 13 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Ball State ML | SMU ML | Ball State spread | SMU spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | +2246 | -4862 | +22.5 -108 | -22.5 -108 | O 150.5 -108 | U 150.5 -108 |
| DraftKings | +2000 | -6500 | +22.5 -110 | -22.5 -110 | O 150.5 -110 | U 150.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | +2200 | -6000 | +22.5 -110 | -22.5 -110 | O 150.5 -110 | U 150.5 -110 |
| Novig | +3233 | -3348 | +22.5 -102 | -22.5 +100 | O 150.5 +100 | U 150.5 -106 |
| ProphetX | +3100 | -4100 | +22.5 -101 | -22.5 -104 | O 150.5 -105 | U 150.5 -107 |
| Bally Bet | – | – | +22.5 -108 | -22.5 -112 | O 150.5 -112 | U 150.5 -109 |
| BetMGM | – | – | +22.5 -110 | -22.5 -110 | O 150.5 -110 | U 150.5 -110 |
| betPARX | – | – | +22.5 -108 | -22.5 -112 | O 150.5 -112 | U 150.5 -109 |
| BetRivers | – | – | +22.5 -109 | -22.5 -113 | O 150.5 -113 | U 150.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | – | – | +22.5 -102 | -22.5 -120 | O 150.5 -110 | U 150.5 -110 |
Prices from 13 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Jakub Szumert (SMU)15.7 PPG (3 GP)
Sean Blake (BALL)15.0 PPG (3 GP)Twenty-three and a half points. That is how far apart the market thinks these teams are, and the gap grew after it opened. The total has climbed too, from 150.5 to 153.5 over eight moves, so the books expect a busy scoreboard when the Ball State Cardinals visit the SMU Mustangs at Moody Coliseum (Dallas). Ball State vs SMU tips Friday, November 13 at 9:00 PM ET on ACC Network. Our only question is whether any price here is worth paying.
SMU, and by a lot. It is also very early, only three games into the season. As of November 12, Ball State is 1-2 and SMU is 3-0. Three games is too few to call either team's form. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives SMU an 82% chance to win and Ball State 18%. Treat that as context only. No moneyline (a straight bet on who wins) is posted, so there is no market win percentage to compare it with.
SMU has 2 days of rest and is playing game 4 of a home stand. Ball State has 3 days of rest but traveled 814 miles and crossed one time zone west. Neither team is on a back-to-back. SMU is 2-1 against the spread (it beat the betting margin in two of three graded games) and 2-1 to the over, also over three games. On Kalshi, a prediction exchange, 99% of the moneyline money is on SMU, but that comes from only 30 trades and $772, so the share can swing.
SMU's Jakub Szumert averages 15.7 points per game over three games, which is a small sample. Ball State's Sean Blake averages 15.0 points per game over three games, also a small sample, and he arrives off a 20-point game. Ball State leans on a short rotation. Last game Mason Jones played 29 minutes, Blake 27 and Trey Lewis 24. SMU spread its minutes around more evenly, with Rowan Brumbaugh at 24, David Terrell Jr. at 23 and Oziyah Sellers at 22. Over three games, SMU averages 51.67% shooting and 23 assists per game. Ball State averages 41% shooting and 24.67% from three. Both are small samples.
A point spread is a handicap. Ball State +23.5 at -106 (best at Courtside) wins if Ball State wins or loses by 23 or fewer. The -106 means you risk $106 to win $100, so a $100 bet profits $94.34 and needs to hit 51.5% of the time to break even.
That is even money, so $100 profits $100 and the break-even is 50%. The spread moved from SMU -22.5 to -23.5 at three books within five minutes. The gap between those two prices is the vig, the house's cut. The two Novig tickets carry the lowest break-even on this board at 50%. That is why shopping for the best number matters.
Strip out the vig and the market sees every side of the spread and total as a 50% proposition. Expected value is your average result per $100 risked if you made the same bet many times. Both sit just under the 50% break-even. So we see no positive edge anywhere. The Over gets our nod as a matchup read. Ball State plays at 68 possessions per game and SMU at 69.5 over their last 10 stored games, and SMU scores 113.7 points per 100 possessions.
It needs 50% to break even, and the market's own no-vig read is also 50%, so this is a matchup lean, not a value bet. On an over, a lower total is better. If the number climbs past 153.5 or the price drops below even money, we would pass. Keep the stake small.
We project SMU 88, Ball State 67. That adds up to 155, which is over 153.5 by a point and a half. The 21-point margin would land inside Ball State's +23.5, but at -106 that ticket is a negative-expectation bet, so we pass on the side. That is our read on this number. The Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and you will find it right below.
The total has climbed from 150.5 to 153.5 as SMU gets set to host Ball State as a 23.5-point favorite at Moody Coliseum.
Ball State vs SMU airs on ACC Network. The game is at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, with tip-off set for Friday, November 13 at 9:00 PM ET.
The SMU Mustangs are favored by 23.5 points on the point spread, up from -22.5 when the line opened. No moneyline price is posted, so the market has not given a straight win percentage for either team.
The Ball State Cardinals and SMU Mustangs tip off Friday, November 13, 2026 at 9:00 PM Eastern time at Moody Coliseum in Dallas. The game airs on ACC Network.
The total has climbed from 150.5 to 153.5 as SMU gets set to host Ball State as a 23.5-point favorite at Moody Coliseum. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 150.5, with the over priced at +100 at Novig and the under at -106 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college basketball odds · FanDuel betting splits
The spread opened Mustangs -22.5 and is now -23.5; the total moved from 150.5 to 153.5; several books (3) moved the spread on home to -23.5 together.
On Kalshi, 99% of the money traded on the moneyline is on SMU Mustangs (30 trades, $772 traded). Light trading so far, so the share can swing. Exchange trades, not sportsbook bets.
As of Nov 13, 12:00 AM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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