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Alcorn State Braves play at Tarleton State Texans in college basketball on Friday, November 13, at EECU Center. As of 7:04 PM ET, Tarleton State are 15.5-point favorites and the total is 150.5. Prices come from 13 sportsbooks we track. The Desk leans Alcorn State +14.5.
Prices updated · from 13 sportsbooks · college basketball betting splits
Latest since this preview was written: spread now Texans -15.5, was Texans -14.5; total now 150.5, was 152.5.
DraftKings bettors lean the Over on the total (67% of tickets).
| Book | BetsOver 150.5Under 150.5 | MoneyOver 150.5Under 150.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings |
Splits data from DraftKings. See every game's betting splits
These are exchange trades, not sportsbook bets. On an exchange every trade has a buyer and a seller, so this shows which side buyers paid for.
Kalshi, Polymarket (international) and Novig publish every trade with the side the buyer took. ProphetX carries its trade fills the same way; a line with no captured fill shows dollars matched only. Trades is each side's share of the trades we read since we began reading the market and Money is its share of the dollars buyers paid. Markets with fewer than 10 trades or under $500 traded are left out; markets under 30 trades or $5,000 are labelled Light trading, because a few buyers can move the percentages a long way.
Polymarket (international) is not open to US bettors.
| Market | Alcorn State Braves | Tarleton State Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +750Bet at BetRivers → | -- |
| Spread | +15.5 +101Bet at ProphetX → exchange price | -15.5 -105Bet at Hard Rock Bet → |
| Total 150.5 | O -102Bet at Novig → exchange price | U -102Bet at Novig → exchange price |
As of 7:04 PM ET, the spread is Tarleton State -15.5 and the total is 150.5, with 13 sportsbooks priced and the table showing each book's own number.
| Sportsbook | Alcorn State ML | Tarleton State ML | Alcorn State spread | Tarleton State spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +800 | -1667 | +15.5 -109 | -15.5 -110 | O 150.5 -113 | U 150.5 -108 |
| betPARX | +800 | -1667 | +15.5 -109 | -15.5 -110 | O 150.5 -113 | U 150.5 -108 |
| FanDuel | +1100 | -2500 | +15.5 -102 | -15.5 -120 | O 150.5 -115 | U 150.5 -105 |
| BetMGM | +950 | -2000 | – | – | O 150.5 -115 | U 150.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | +750 | -1430 | +15.5 -115 | -15.5 -108 | – | – |
| DraftKings | +1000 | -1800 | – | – | O 150.5 -115 | U 150.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +750 | -1400 | +15.5 -115 | -15.5 -105 | – | – |
| Novig | +1233 | -1329 | – | – | O 150.5 -102 | U 150.5 -102 |
| ProphetX | +1050 | -1650 | +15.5 +101 | -15.5 -114 | – | – |
| theScore Bet | +1000 | -2000 | +15.5 -105 | -15.5 -115 | – | – |
Prices from 13 sportsbooks we track (the 10 with the most markets shown), updated . Prices move, so check the book before you bet.
Leroy Kelly IV (TAR)16.0 PPG (3 GP)This line has moved 12 points. The Tarleton State Texans opened as 2.5-point favorites and now sit at -14.5 after five moves, while the total jumped from 133.5 to 152.5. When a market reprices that hard, our job is to ask whether the new number went too far. The Alcorn State Braves visit the EECU Center on Friday, November 13 at 8:00 PM ET, streaming on ESPN+. Here is our Alcorn State vs Tarleton State prediction, built from the price up.
Tarleton State is the clear favorite. But it is early, three games into the season for both teams. As of publication Alcorn State is 0-3 and Tarleton State is 2-1. That is far too few games to call form. The per-game team averages over those three games lean hard toward the home side. Tarleton State shoots 48.33% from the field and holds opponents to 32.33%. Alcorn State commits 19.33 turnovers per game and allows 53.67% shooting.
Treat that as a sketch, not a verdict. Both teams have two days of rest. Alcorn State is on game two of a road trip after traveling 639 miles from Murray, where a headline reports a 94-57 loss to Murray State. Tarleton State is on game two of a home stand. Our rating, an Elo model built on stored results, gives Tarleton State 81% to win. That is context only.
Leroy Kelly IV leads Tarleton State at 16.0 points per game over three games, a small sample. He played 32 minutes last game and 70 over the past seven days, so the offense runs through him. Calvin Sirmans III leads Alcorn State at 9.3 points per game over three games, also a small sample. He logged 20 minutes last game. Trey Thomas (25) and Adam Tokpah (23) played more.
The moneyline is a bet on who wins outright. Alcorn State is +750 at Fanatics, so a $100 bet profits $750 if the Braves win. No Tarleton State moneyline price is posted. The point spread is a handicap. Alcorn State +14.5 at -108 (Courtside) wins if the Braves win or lose by 14 or fewer, and a $100 bet profits $92.59.
Tarleton State -14.5 at -105 (theScore Bet) needs a win by 15 or more, and a $100 bet profits $95.24. The total is a bet on combined points. Both are best at Courtside. Those minus numbers are the vig, the book's built-in cut. Shopping books is how you shrink it.
Break-even is how often a bet must win to stop losing money. Expected value is the average result per $100 over many bets. Strip out the vig and every price here comes up short. The Over is minus $3.28 and the Under minus $4.10. So any play here is a matchup opinion. Ours rests on the last 10 stored games. Alcorn State scored 94 points per 100 possessions at 71 possessions per game. Tarleton State scored 107.1 at 69.4. At that pace the gap looks like a low double-digit margin, not 15.
We lean Alcorn State +14.5 at -108 at Courtside. To be clear, this is a matchup lean, not a value play. It needs 51.9% to break even, and the market reads it at 50%. If you find +15 at a similar price, take it. A 15-point loss would push (refund your stake) instead of losing. Skip the moneyline.
Tarleton State vs Alcorn State should feel like a home team in control without running away. We project Tarleton State 76, Alcorn State 64. That adds up to 140 points, under the 152.5 total, and the 12-point margin sits inside the 14.5. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it lands right below.
Tarleton State opened as a 2.5-point favorite and now lays 14.5, so the real question is whether the market went too far.
Alcorn State vs Tarleton State streams on ESPN+. The game tips off Friday, November 13 at 8:00 PM ET at the EECU Center, the home floor of the Tarleton State Texans.
Tarleton State is favored. The best spread is Tarleton State -14.5 at -105 at theScore Bet, and the Alcorn State moneyline is +750 at Fanatics. The market's no-vig read gives Alcorn State about a 6.9% chance to win outright.
The game tips off Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET at the EECU Center. Alcorn State is on game two of a road trip, and Tarleton State is on game two of a home stand. Both teams come in on two days of rest.
Tarleton State opened as a 2.5-point favorite and now lays 14.5, so the real question is whether the market went too far. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 150.5, with the over priced at -102 at Novig and the under at -102 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
More for this game: College basketball betting splits · DraftKings betting splits · college basketball odds · FanDuel betting splits
The spread opened Texans -2.5 and is now -14.5; the total moved from 133.5 to 152.5; several books (4) moved the spread on home to -14.5 together.
As of Nov 12, 11:57 PM ET, when this preview was written. Percentages are public betting splits and market prices, not picks.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
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