- Get the fair no-vig price. Take both sides of a market and remove the vig with a no-vig calculator. That gives the true fair odds for each side.
- Find the best available price. Check the same bet across several books and record the best number on your side.
- Compare the two. If the best available price is better than the fair price, the bet has positive expected value. If it is worse, pass.
- Bet only the edge. Discipline means passing far more often than you bet. Only fire when the number is genuinely in your favor.
A worked value example
A market has Team A -105 and Team B -115. Removing the vig, the fair price on Team A is about +102. If a different book offers Team A at +115, you are getting a better price than fair, a value bet. If the best you can find is -105, there is no edge and you pass. Our no-vig calculator gives the fair price and the +EV board surfaces where the available price beats it.
Where value hides
- On the unpopular side of games the public has inflated.
- In slow-to-move markets like props and smaller leagues.
- Right after news, before every book adjusts.
- Anywhere one book is a step behind the market consensus.
Frequently asked questions
What is a value bet?
A bet where the odds you can get are better than the outcome's true probability. Over time, betting value is what produces a profit, even though any single value bet can lose.
How do I know a price is value?
Strip the vig to find the fair odds, then compare to the best available price. If the available price is better than fair, it is a positive-EV value bet.
Keep going
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER. Regulated US books only.