UFC Comes to Shanghai
On August 29, 2026, the UFC lands at the Shanghai Oriental Sports Center for UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song. Thirteen fights are on the slate, headlined by a welterweight main event between Ding Meng and Cameron Nelson, with the namesake bantamweight showdown between Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong anchoring the card. Odds are already posted on ten of the thirteen bouts, and the board offers everything from near coin flips to prices as steep as -700.
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How UFC Betting Works
MMA betting is simpler than football. There are no point spreads because a fight has no score to spread. You just pick who wins, and the moneyline tells you the price. A negative number is the favorite: at -144, Ding Meng costs $144 of risk to win $100. A positive number is the underdog: at +134, a $100 bet on Cameron Nelson returns $134 in profit.
Every price implies a win probability, but books bake in a fee called the vig. The fair percentage strips that fee out. Ding Meng at fair 58% means the market truly believes he wins about 58 times in 100. Your job is to find prices that pay better than that fair number, and to always shop multiple books for the best number, because a few cents of price is real money over time.
Ding Meng vs Cameron Nelson
Ding Meng brings a deep 35-10-0 record against Nelson's 7-1-0. The market makes Ding a modest -144 favorite (best at Novig, fair 58%), with Nelson +134 at FanDuel (fair 42%). This is close to a coin flip with a lean, so neither man needs a miracle.
Jingnan Xiong vs Julia Polastri
Xiong is 19-3-0 but sits as a +210 underdog (Caesars, fair 32%). Polastri, 14-6-0, is -217 at Novig (fair 68%). The market clearly favors Polastri roughly two to one despite Xiong's stronger record on paper.
Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago
Two young prospects: Lui at 8-1-0, Santiago at 6-1-0. Lui is a firm -270 favorite (Novig, fair 72%), Santiago +260 at ProphetX (fair 29%). Santiago needs to beat a market that gives him fewer than three chances in ten.
Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi
Veteran Xiao Long (27-11-0) is -165 at Hard Rock Bet (fair 61%) against Nuzzi (11-2-0) at +162 on ProphetX (fair 39%). Experience is priced ahead of the cleaner record here, but not by much.
Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins
Woodson (13-2-1) is a slim -138 favorite (Novig, fair 57%). Jenkins (14-4-0) sits at +133 (Novig, fair 43%). This is the closest featherweight matchup on the card by the numbers.
Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas
The steepest price on the board. Tsuruya (11-1-0) is -700 at Novig (fair 86%), Borjas (11-5-0) is +669 (fair 14%). The market treats this as near a formality.
Namsrai Batbayar vs Andre Lima
Lima (11-1-0) is -251 at Novig (fair 70%) over Batbayar (10-1-0) at +245 (fair 30%). Two fighters with one loss each, yet the market sees a clear gap.
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas
Two unbeatens at 9-0-0 apiece, but the market is not treating it as even. Hasan is -614 at Novig (fair 85%), Rojas +570 at FanDuel (fair 15%). Someone's zero goes.
Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Liu Ce (3-1-0) meets Rodrigues Jr. (5-1-0) at light heavyweight. Odds are not posted yet, so there is no market read to analyze.
Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji
Perez (26-10-0) faces Sumudaerji (19-7-0) at flyweight. No odds are up yet, so we wait for a number before forming a view.
Kai Asakura vs Aoriqileng
Asakura (22-6-0) against Aoriqileng (26-13-0) at bantamweight. Also unpriced for now.
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes
Yan (19-5-0) is -147 at Novig (fair 58%) against Gomes (12-3-0) at +146 on ProphetX (fair 42%). A tight strawweight matchup by the market's math.
Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) is a massive -540 favorite at ProphetX (fair 83%). Song (23-9-1) is +525 at Novig (fair 17%). The market gives Song roughly one chance in six.
Where the Value Is
Shopping matters more than picking here. Denise Gomes at +146 on ProphetX implies about a 41% chance while the fair number is 42%, so $100 there pays $146 on a fight the market calls closer than the price suggests. Francesco Nuzzi at +162 (implied 38%, fair 39%) is similar: a slightly generous payout on a live underdog. Kevin Borjas at +669 against a 14% fair number is a small overlay for those comfortable with long shots. The favorites are efficiently priced, so if you back Nurmagomedov or Hasan, the edge comes entirely from taking the best posted number, not from the pick itself.
The Picks
Main Event: Ding Meng at -144, Novig
Fight 2: Julia Polastri at -217, Novig
Fight 3: Lawrence Lui at -270, Novig
Fight 4: Xiao Long at -165, Hard Rock Bet
Fight 5: Sean Woodson at -138, Novig
Fight 6: Rei Tsuruya at -700, Novig
Fight 7: Andre Lima at -251, Novig
Fight 8: Bilal Hasan at -614, Novig
Fight 9: No pick, odds not posted
Fight 10: No pick, odds not posted
Fight 11: No pick, odds not posted
Fight 12: Yan Xiaonan at -147, Novig
Fight 13: Umar Nurmagomedov at -540, ProphetX
The Prediction
The Desk sides with Ding Meng at -144. The market makes him a 58% proposition against Cameron Nelson, and at that price you risk $144 to win $100 on the fighter the numbers favor. Nelson at +134 is priced fairly, not generously, so there is no discount for taking the underdog side. In a fight this tight, the play is the modest favorite at the best available number, and Novig has it. This is Wise Guy Desk analysis for education, not an official documented play, so manage your stake accordingly and always take the best price you can find.
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song FAQ
Who is favored in the UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song?
Ding Meng is the market favorite at -144 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Cameron Nelson at +134. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
How does UFC betting work?
Almost everything runs through the moneyline: pick the winner of the fight. There are no point spreads. Books also offer round totals (how long the fight lasts) and method-of-victory props. Favorites carry minus numbers, underdogs plus numbers, and prices vary a lot between books, so shopping for the best number matters.
Are these UFC picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
35-10-0
7-1-0
14-6-0
8-1-0
11-2-0
13-2-1
14-4-0
11-1-0
11-5-0
10-1-0
9-0-0
9-0-0
20-1-0