NFL Survivor

A survivor pool asks one thing a week: pick a winner, and never use the same team twice. This board ranks every team by the market's estimated chance to win this week.

The estimate comes from the moneyline at the books we price, with the book's cut taken out. For each game, every book posting both sides is de-vigged, and the middle value becomes the estimate.

At the top is the team with the highest estimated win probability that's still open to you. Beside it are the next two choices.

Below that, every team this week, highest estimate first. The colored bands are plain number ranges: 75%+, 65 to 74%, 50 to 64%, and under 50%. Best eligible moneyline is the best price, if you also want to bet that team.

Estimates can be wrong: even a team at 80% still loses about 1 week in 5.

Each week, tap Mark used on the team you picked. It's saved on this device and drops out of the ranking, so you only see the teams you have left.

One thing this board won't do is plan your pool. In a big pool, a slightly weaker favorite that fewer people take can be worth more, and saving a strong team for a later week can matter. It gives you the market's number, and the strategy is yours.

NFL Survivor is one of the tools in your WGT workspace.