Stan Wawrinka vs Matteo Berrettini

The market read: Matteo Berrettini is the favorite at -400 (implied 80% to win), with Stan Wawrinka at +346 (22%) at the US Open. Best US price at publish; the full pick and reasoning are below.

Two Big Hitters, One Hard Court, Almost No Room to Hide

Stan Wawrinka against Matteo Berrettini at the US Open on August 31, 2026 is a matchup of raw power on a surface that rewards it. Both men win points by ending them. Neither is built to grind out twenty ball rallies for three hours. The oddsmakers have already picked a clear side here, and the gap is wide. Before we get to who we like, let us walk through what the numbers are actually saying, because in tennis the price often tells you more than the preview does.

The Matchup

Berrettini is priced as the heavy favorite at -400. Wawrinka is the underdog at +346. In plain English, the market thinks Berrettini wins this roughly four times out of five. Stylistically, both players lean on first strike tennis, meaning they try to win the point with the serve or the very next shot. Wawrinka is a pure ball striker who can take the racket out of an opponent's hands when he is timing it. Berrettini brings a serve and forehand combination that is built to shorten points. When two players like this meet, matches often turn on a small number of break points, a break point being the single point that decides whether you steal your opponent's service game. That is all the data supports, so we will not pretend to know past results between them.

How They Are Priced

A moneyline is simply the price on who wins the match. There is no point spread in tennis. Berrettini at -400 means you risk $400 to win $100. That price implies about an 80% chance of winning. Wawrinka at +346, best available at BetRivers, means a $100 stake returns $346 in profit, and it implies about a 22% chance. Add those two together and you get 102.4%. That extra 2.4% is the sportsbook's built in margin, called the vig or the hold. It is the house's cut.

The Surface and Conditions

Hard court is the great equalizer that is not really equal. The bounce is true and predictable, which suits clean, flat hitters who want the ball arriving in their strike zone. It also rewards big serving, because the surface preserves pace better than clay and gives returners less time to react. Both of these men fit that profile in general terms. The trade off is physical. Hard court is unforgiving on the body over best of five sets, and the longer a match goes, the more the fresher legs matter.

Where the Value Is

Strip out the 2.4% hold and you get the fair, no vig numbers: Berrettini around 78% and Wawrinka around 22%. Fair price on Wawrinka would be about +357, and you are being offered +346. Fair price on Berrettini would be about -357, and you are being offered -400. Expected value simply means what a bet is worth on average if you could replay it a thousand times. Here, neither side is a bargain. This is a tightly priced market, and that itself is information. We side with the favorite on merit, at a small stake, because laying -400 means one loss erases four wins. Shop every book. A move from -400 to -370 is real money over a season.

The Pick

Matteo Berrettini moneyline at -400, small stake only.

The Prediction

Expect a match decided by a handful of return games. Wawrinka's power gives him a real path to one set, and the +346 is not a wild number. But over best of five on a fast surface, the steadier serve usually wins the war of attrition. Berrettini in four, 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.

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