Devils vs Avalanche Prediction & Odds (Oct 28)

A Rematch That Already Has A Scoreline

The season series is not blank. New Jersey leads it 1-0. That is the tension here: the New Jersey Devils have already solved this opponent once, and now they have to do it again in Denver, where the Colorado Avalanche get the last change and the home crowd. Devils vs Avalanche goes Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET from Ball Arena. No prices are posted yet, so this is a read on the matchup first and the number second.

The Matchup

As of publication, New Jersey sits at 5-4-0 and Colorado at 5-4-1. In the NHL, that third number is an overtime or shootout loss, which still banks one standings point. So Colorado has played one more game and collected a point in a game it did not win. New Jersey is 5th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division. Colorado is 4th of 8 in the Central Division. Neither club has separated from the pack. Flip it around and the framing holds: Avalanche vs Devils is two middle-of-the-table teams with nearly identical results, which usually means a tight price rather than a lopsided one.

Players To Watch

Nathan MacKinnon leads Colorado with 16 points through 10 games played, which is 1.6 per game. Jack Hughes leads New Jersey with 9 points through 9 games played, which is 1.0 per game. Because the two have played a different number of games, the per-game figure is the only fair comparison, and MacKinnon holds it. That gap is real but it is not a chasm, and one line does not play 60 minutes. What it does tell you is where Colorado's offense routes through, and which matchup New Jersey's coach will chase with his defensive pairing on home-side changes he will not get at Ball Arena.

The Numbers

Nothing is up yet, so here is what to read when it posts. The moneyline is the straight bet on who wins, overtime and shootout included. The puck line in hockey is almost always set at 1.5 goals: the favorite must win by two or more, the underdog stays alive by losing by exactly one or winning outright.

The total is the combined goals by both teams, and you take over or under. Prices move between now and the Wednesday puck drop, and books rarely post the same number. A difference of ten or fifteen cents on a moneyline is real money over a season, so take the best available price across books on whatever side you land on.

Where The Value Is

Here is the method we will run the second numbers appear. Convert both sides of the moneyline into implied probability, add them up, and strip the overlap. What is left is the market-implied probability with the vig removed, the book's margin taken out. Then compare that to the best posted price.

If the best price pays more than the no-vig fair number says it should, the bet carries positive expected value, meaning the average result per $100 risked is a gain rather than a loss over many repeats of the same spot. Our lean: New Jersey, and only at plus money. A team that has already beaten this opponent once, sitting within a point of them in results, should not be a throwaway dog. If the Devils come back shorter than even money, we pass rather than chase.

Injuries

Colorado is without three names: Logan O'Connor on Injured Reserve, Zachary L'Heureux out, and Nicolas Roy out. New Jersey is without two: Nick Bjugstad and Seamus Casey, both on Injured Reserve. Five absences total, and the depth hit tilts toward the home side. Colorado's missing pieces are bottom-six and penalty-kill minutes, which is exactly where a tired home team leaks a late goal.

The Pick

New Jersey Devils moneyline, if and only if it posts at plus money, at the best price you can find across books. If it prices as a favorite, this becomes a no-play for us.

The Prediction

We project a one-goal hockey game, 4-3 New Jersey, with a real chance it needs overtime. No total is posted, so we are making no over or under call here. That is the read on this number; the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this, and it sits right below.