Canadiens vs Stars Prediction & Odds (Oct 29)

A Short-Handed Visitor and a Blank Price Board

Montreal is heading to Dallas without Nick Suzuki, without its listed goaltender Sam Montembeault, and without Ivan Demidov. That is a lot of the spine of a hockey team sitting in street clothes. And as of publication on October 26, the market has not posted a number on this one yet, which means the reader who gets to it first gets to set the terms. Canadiens vs Stars tips off at American Airlines Center on Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.

The Matchup

As of publication, the Montreal Canadiens are 6-3-2 and the Dallas Stars are 7-3-1. Both clubs have played 11 games. The three-number record is a hockey quirk: wins, regulation losses, then overtime or shootout losses, which still bank a standings point. Montreal sits 5th of 8 in the Atlantic Division. Dallas sits 3rd of 8 in the Central Division. The season series between these two starts right here on 10/29, so there is no head-to-head history this year to lean on. Stars vs Canadiens is a clean slate, played in Dallas, with the home side on the better side of the ledger through an identical number of games.

Players to Watch

Mikko Rantanen is Dallas's listed statistical leader at 14 across 11 games played, which is every one of the team's 11 games, for 1.3 per game. That matters for two reasons. First, availability: he has not missed a night. Second, rate: 1.3 per game is production you can plan around rather than a hot week that will cool off. Montreal does not have a leader listed in this brief, and with Suzuki out and Demidov on injured reserve, the Canadiens are asking players further down the depth chart to carry minutes they were not built for in October.

The Numbers

No prices are up for this game yet, so here is what to expect and how to read it. The moneyline is the simplest ticket: pick the winner, overtime and shootout included. The puck line is hockey's spread, almost always 1.5 goals, and it is a different bet with a different payout and a different way to lose. The total, also called the over/under, is the combined goals both teams score.

Every one of those prices carries vig, the built-in fee the book charges on each side, which is why the two sides never add to a clean 100 percent. When the board opens, compare the same bet at every book you have. A few cents of difference on the same side costs nothing extra and compounds over a season, and it is the one edge available to literally everyone.

Where the Value Is

Our read leans Dallas. Home ice, the better record through the same 11 games, and a healthy top producer against a visitor missing its most important forward and its listed goaltender. But the lean has a condition attached. The shorter a favorite's price, the more often that ticket has to win just to break even, and a short price on a tired, injury-thinned opponent is exactly the spot where books expect the public money.

Expected value just means the average result of a bet repeated many times, measured per $100 risked. A fair-looking Dallas price returns a profit over time; an inflated one bleeds slowly no matter how right the read feels. Wait for the number, then shop it.

Injuries

Five Dallas names are listed: Radek Faksa and Sam Steel are day-to-day, meaning a game-time decision, while Oskar Back, Esa Lindell and Matt Duchene are on injured reserve, a longer-term designation. Montreal lists five entries, four named plus one more on injured reserve: Nick Suzuki is out, with Sam Montembeault, Ivan Demidov and Bryce Pickford on injured reserve. Dallas is missing real pieces. Montreal is missing more of what it cannot replace. Final designations land before Thursday's 8:00 PM ET puck drop.

The Pick

Desk analysis, not an official documented play: Dallas Stars moneyline. The price is not posted yet, so the instruction is the bet itself. Take the best Dallas number across your books when the market opens, and if it opens shorter than you expected, pass rather than chase.

The Prediction

We project the Dallas Stars 4, the Montreal Canadiens 2. Rantanen's line gets chances against a Montreal group patching holes down the middle, and the Canadiens have to grind for everything in a building where they get no last change. That is the read on this number before it exists; the Desk posts a documented free play most days, and it sits right below this page.