Avalanche vs Devils Prediction & Odds (Oct 20)

A Seven-Cent Hockey Game

Strip the sportsbook's built-in cut out of this price and the whole game is worth about seven cents. New Jersey is the favorite at -113 (the side the market expects to win), Colorado the underdog at +108 (the side expected to lose). That shakes out to roughly 51.7% to 48.3%. It is close to a coin flip with the Devils as the favorite, and that thin a margin is exactly where shopping for the best number stops being a detail and starts being the whole job.

The Matchup

Puck drops Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET at Prudential Center. As of today, the Colorado Avalanche are 5-3-1 and sit 3rd of 8 in the Central Division. The New Jersey Devils are 4-4-0 and sit 5th of 8 in the Metropolitan Division. The season series starts right here on 10/20, so there is no head-to-head history this year to lean on. Avalanche vs Devils is a cross-conference, non-divisional night, which usually means a looser, more open game than a rivalry grind, and the 6.5 total reflects that.

Players to Watch

Nathan MacKinnon leads Colorado with 16 points on the season. Jack Hughes leads New Jersey with 9. Games played are not published for either man, so we are not going to stack those totals side by side and pretend it is an apples-to-apples read. What matters for a bettor is simpler: both teams run their offense through one elite driver, and both of those drivers are healthy and on the ice. When the number is this tight, the team whose star gets the cleaner matchup for 20 minutes usually decides it.

The Numbers

Moneyline (a straight bet on who wins): Colorado +108, best price at Novig. A $100 bet profits $108.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not. Break-even is 48.1%, meaning you need to win 48.1% of the time just to tread water. New Jersey -113, also best at Novig: $100 profits $88.50 and loses $100, break-even 53.1%.

Puck line (a spread, a bet on the margin): Colorado +1.5 at -217 wins if Colorado wins outright or loses by one goal, and loses on a two-goal loss, with no push at a half point. $100 there profits $46.08, break-even 68.5%. New Jersey -1.5 at +215 (best at Bally Bet) wins only on a two-goal-or-more Devils win, break-even 31.7%. Total 6.5 (combined goals): Over +106 at Novig, break-even 48.5%; Under -111 at Novig, break-even 52.6%.

Where the Value Is

No-vig means the market's implied probability with the sportsbook's cut removed. Colorado's no-vig win probability is 48.3%, and the fair price for that is about +107. You can get +108. At that price the expected result is plus $0.46 per $100 risked, which is an average across many identical bets, not a payout. Thin, but positive. Every other number here is negative at the same stake basis: New Jersey -113 is minus $2.55 per $100 risked, Over 6.5 is minus $1.53, Under 6.5 is minus $0.77.

Colorado +1.5 at -217 carries a 68.2% no-vig cover probability against a 68.5% break-even, so it is minus $0.37 per $100 and only a matchup opinion, never a safer version of the moneyline. New Jersey -1.5 at +215 shows plus $0.17 per $100 against its own 31.8% cover number, which is a rounding error, not an edge.

Injuries

Five names total. New Jersey is without Nick Bjugstad and Seamus Casey, both on Injured Reserve. Colorado is down three: Logan O'Connor on Injured Reserve, plus Zachary L'Heureux and Nicolas Roy listed out. Colorado loses more bodies, but none of them are the engine of the roster.

The Pick

Colorado Avalanche moneyline +108 at Novig. Devils vs Avalanche is priced as a near-even game, and the dog is the only side on this board being paid above the market's own read of it. If your book has +105 or worse, the edge is gone.

The Prediction

Avalanche 3, Devils 2. That adds to five goals, which lands under the 6.5 total, though the Under price at -111 does not pay enough to back it. We want the dog and nothing else. That is the read on this number, and the Desk's documented free play for the day sits right below.