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DraftKings bettors lean Broncos on the spread (59% of bets).
| Book | Broncos -4.5 | Cardinals +4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 59% of bets, 29% of money | 41% of bets, 71% of money |
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | 57% of bets, 20% of money | 43% of bets, 80% of money |
| BetMGM | 61% of bets | 39% of bets |
| Book | Broncos (-230) | Cardinals (+190) |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 86% of bets, 64% of money | 14% of bets, 36% of money |
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | 100% of bets, 100% of money | 0% of bets, 0% of money |
| BetMGM | 89% of bets | 11% of bets |
| Book | Over 43.5 | Under 43.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 54% of bets, 3% of money | 46% of bets, 97% of money |
| Circa (sharp Vegas book) | 0% of bets, 0% of money | 100% of bets, 100% of money |
| BetMGM | 66% of bets | 34% of bets |
Splits data from DraftKings, Circa and BetMGM. See every game's betting splits · Circa betting splits
| Market | Denver Broncos | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -203Bet at Novig → | +199Bet at Novig → |
| Spread | -4.5 +104Bet at Novig → | +4.5 -108Bet at Novig → |
| Total 43.5 | O -105Bet at Bally Bet → | U +102Bet at Novig → |
Denver Broncos2nd in the AFC WestArizona Cardinals3rd in the NFC West
Jacoby Brissett (ARI)156/234, 1,328 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT (6 GP)
Bo Nix (DEN)114/189, 1,049 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT (6 GP)Denver is a 4-2 team being priced at -208 to win in Glendale. Denver is also a team whose top cornerback and one of its safeties are both listed doubtful. Those two facts are fighting each other, and the market has not fully picked a winner. Meanwhile the quarterback with the better per-game passing line in this game plays for the 2-4 home team. Broncos vs Cardinals looks lopsided on the scoreboard. It is not lopsided on paper.
The Denver Broncos visit the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium on Sunday, October 25, 2026, kickoff 4:05 PM ET, Week 7 of the 2026 regular season. As of this writing (October 20), Denver is 4-2 and sits second of four in the AFC West. Arizona is 2-4 and sits third of four in the NFC West. That is the whole standings picture we have, and we are not going to invent more. Cardinals vs Broncos is a road favorite against a home underdog, with the market giving Denver a 67 percent chance to win once the sportsbook's built-in margin is stripped out.
Jacoby Brissett has played all six of Arizona's games. Per game he is averaging 26 of 39 passing for 221.3 yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 1 interception. Bo Nix has also played all six of Denver's games. Per game he is at 19 of 31.5 for 174.8 yards, 1 touchdown and 0.5 interceptions. Same number of games, so the per-game comparison is fair: Brissett is moving the ball more through the air, Nix is protecting it better. Denver's 4-2 record is not being built on passing volume. Arizona's 2-4 record is not the quarterback refusing to throw.
Three bets are on the board. The moneyline is a straight bet on who wins: Denver -208 (best price at Novig), Arizona +203 (best price at Novig). At -208, a $100 bet profits $48.08 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, and it needs to win 67.5 percent of the time to break even. At +203, a $100 bet profits $203.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, breaking even at 33 percent.
The point spread is a bet on margin: Denver -4.5 at +102 wins only if Denver wins by 5 or more (a 4-point win loses, and there is no push at a half point), with a 49.5 percent break-even. Arizona +4.5 at -104 wins if Arizona wins outright or loses by 4 or fewer, and loses on a 5-point loss, with a 51 percent break-even. The total is the combined score: Over 43.5 at +100, Under 43.5 at -104. Every price listed is the best we found across the books we track, all at Novig here. Shopping lines is the edge that never slumps.
Strip the vig and the market reads this at 66.7 percent Denver, 33.3 percent Arizona, a fair -200 and +200. Denver at -208 pays less than the market's own read: minus $1.23 per $100 risked. Arizona at +203 pays more: plus $0.90 per $100 risked. Small, but positive, and it carries the lowest break-even on this board at 33 percent.
The spread's own no-vig cover number is 50 percent for both sides, so Denver -4.5 at +102 is plus $1.00 per $100 risked and Arizona +4.5 at -104 is minus $1.92 per $100 risked. Over 43.5 at +100 is dead break-even, plus $0.00 per $100 risked; Under at -104 is minus $1.92. The total offers nothing.
Denver lists three names: Pat Surtain II (doubtful), Talanoa Hufanga (doubtful) and Tyler Badie (questionable). Doubtful means unlikely to play. Questionable means genuinely uncertain, and we do not assign it a number. Arizona lists three: Wydett Williams Jr., Andrew Wingard and Jeremiyah Love, all questionable. Two doubtful defensive backs against a quarterback averaging 221.3 passing yards per game is the live thread here. Final designations arrive before Sunday's 4:05 PM ET kickoff.
Arizona Cardinals moneyline +203 at Novig. A $100 bet profits $203.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not. It is a positive-expectation price at plus $0.90 per $100 risked, and the secondary news supports the dog. Size it small. Underdogs lose most of the time by design.
We project Cardinals 24, Broncos 21. That adds to 45 points, which is above the total of 43.5, though we are not betting a number the market has priced to the penny. That is our read on this price; the Desk posts a documented free play most days, and it sits right below.
Broncos is the market favorite at -203 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Cardinals at +199. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Denver is priced like a clear favorite with its two best defensive backs doubtful, and that is why we are taking Arizona at +203 on the moneyline at Novig. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 43.5, with the over priced at -105 at Bally Bet and the under at +102 at Novig. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
Forecast for State Farm Stadium near game time: 79°F, wind 0 mph, 0% chance of precipitation. The stadium has a retractable roof, so these conditions apply only if it is open. Source: National Weather Service, captured 2026-10-21 22:23 UTC.
More for this game: NFL betting splits · DraftKings betting splits
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