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As of Oct 16, 3:51 AM ET, moneyline tickets split 55% Pacers, 45% Pelicans, and the money splits 18% Pacers, 82% Pelicans (licensed market-data feed, the same numbers as our betting splits board).
| Market | Indiana Pacers | New Orleans Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -147Bet at Novig → | +140Bet at Caesars → |
| Spread | -3.5 +100Bet at Novig → | +3.5 -105Bet at DraftKings → |
| Total 242.5 | O -110Bet at BetMGM → | U -105Bet at DraftKings → |
Indiana Pacers4th in the Central · 1 GB · L2New Orleans Pelicans2nd in the Southwest · W1Every number on this board costs you money except one. That is the hook. Indiana is the favorite at -147, Indiana -3.5 is a tax, both sides of the total are a tax, and then there is New Orleans at +140, the lone price that pays exactly what the market's own math says it should. Pacers vs Pelicans tips Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET from Smoothie King Center, and the whole bet lives in that one gap.
As of this writing on October 15, both clubs sit at 0-0 in our records field, so treat the standings notes as the live context: the Indiana Pacers are 4th of 5 in the Central and 1 game back, carrying an L2 streak (two straight losses). The New Orleans Pelicans are 2nd of 5 in the Southwest on a W1 streak (one straight win). The season series has not started yet, it begins with this game, so there is no head to head form to lean on. This is a 2027 season regular season game, nothing more and nothing less.
The names that matter here are the ones on the injury report, because availability moves a number faster than form does. For New Orleans, Dejounte Murray is listed day to day. For Indiana, three names carry that same tag: T.J. McConnell, Jarace Walker and Aaron Nesmith. Four day to day players across the two rosters. Day to day means a game time call, not a ruling, so the smart move is to watch the lineup news on game day rather than assume anything now.
Moneyline means you are simply betting who wins, no margin involved. Indiana Pacers -147 is best at Novig: a $100 bet profits $68.03 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, break-even 59.5 percent. New Orleans Pelicans +140 is best at BetMGM: a $100 bet profits $140.00 when it wins and loses $100 when it does not, break-even 41.7 percent. The spread is a margin bet.
Indiana -3.5 at -112 (FanDuel) wins only if the Pacers win by 4 or more, and a 3-point win loses, with no push at a half point. New Orleans +3.5 at -105 (DraftKings) wins if the Pelicans win outright or lose by 3 or fewer, and it loses on a 4-point loss. The total is the combined score: Over 242.5 is -110 at theScore Bet, Under 242.5 is -105 at DraftKings. Those are the best prices we track on each side, and shopping them is the edge.
Strip the vig (the book's built-in commission) and the market reads this about 58.3 percent Indiana, 41.7 percent New Orleans, a fair -140. Indiana at -147 returns minus $2.04 per $100 risked, which is the price paying less than the market's own read. Indiana -3.5 at -112 needs 52.8 percent and the no-vig cover number is 51.1 percent: minus $3.27 per $100 risked.
New Orleans +3.5 at -105 needs 51.2 percent against 48.9 percent: minus $4.53 per $100 risked. Over 242.5 is minus $3.59 and Under 242.5 is minus $3.36, both per $100 risked. Only the Pelicans moneyline at +140 clears, at plus $0.08 per $100 risked. Thin, but it is the one side where the price is not shaving you.
Four day to day designations, three of them Indiana's (T.J. McConnell, Jarace Walker, Aaron Nesmith) and one New Orleans (Dejounte Murray). The concentration matters: a road favorite laying 3.5 with three rotation calls pending is a number that can move. Check the final word before tip on Wednesday, not before.
New Orleans Pelicans moneyline +140 at BetMGM. Break-even 41.7 percent, and the no-vig read is 41.7 percent. We are taking the only positive number on the board, at home, with the shorter injury list. This is Desk analysis, not a documented official play.
Pelicans vs Pacers projects tight, which is what a 40-cent favorite should look like. We see New Orleans 120, Indiana 117. That adds to 237 points, which is under the total of 242.5, though neither total side prices well enough for us to play it. That is the read on this number, and the Desk posts a documented free play on days like this one right below.
Pacers is the market favorite at -147 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Pelicans at +140. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
The market prices New Orleans at 41.7 percent and pays you 41.7 percent back, so the Pelicans at +140 are the only ticket on the board that is not paying less than the number says. The full read, including a projected final score, is in The Prediction section above.
The total is 242.5, with the over priced at -110 at BetMGM and the under at -105 at DraftKings. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown, our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
Expected value first: the best price across the regulated US books we track versus the true fair price with the vig removed, then the matchup data (form, standings, injuries, key players). Line shopping for the best number is the edge most bettors leave on the table.
This preview was produced with AI assistance from live data feeds and reviewed by automated checks. Odds and availability change constantly and may differ from what's shown - always verify the current line at your sportsbook before betting. Found an error? memberservice@wiseguyteam.com.
21+. For entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Wise Guy Desk reads are analysis, not guaranteed outcomes. If gambling stops being fun, take a break. 1-800-GAMBLER.