📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees
Last 5 games (newest first)
Tampa Bay RaysWWLWW
New York YankeesWWWLLRuns scored vs allowed, last 5
Tampa Bay Rays23 for · 10 against New York Yankees26 for · 11 against Pregame chance to win, per the betting market
Pregame chance to win, per ESPN's computer model
Standings & streak
Tampa Bay Rays1st AL East · L1 New York Yankees2nd AL East · 4.5 GB · W1 How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, so it is the market's honest opinion. When that number and ESPN's model disagree, one of them is wrong, and that gap is where value lives.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A
moneyline bet is picking who wins the game, nothing else. In this game, +153 means a $100 bet profits $153 if it wins. -156 means you risk $156 to profit $100, that's the favorite. The
run line is baseball's point spread, almost always 1.5 runs. The
total is a bet on combined runs by both teams, over or under the books' number.
+EV (positive expected value) means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (the line with the vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn the full system free:
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Odds converter ·
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The Team With More Wins Is The Underdog
Tampa Bay won 98 games. New York won 93. Tampa Bay has beaten New York twice already in this season series without losing. And the Rays are still priced as the underdog that night at Yankee Stadium. That is the tension worth sitting with before you look at anything else. The market is not grading on the standings. It is grading on the ballpark, the bullpen, and the name on the mound for the home team.
The Matchup
Tampa Bay sits atop the AL East at 98-64, with New York second at 93-68, 4.5 games back. Recent form is close to a wash. The Rays have gone 4-1 over their last five, scoring 23 and allowing 10, though they dropped the most recent one. The Yankees are 3-2 in their last five, scoring 26 and allowing 11, and they come in off a win.
Both clubs are hitting and both clubs are preventing runs. The separator on paper is the season series, where Tampa Bay is 2-0. Two games is a small sample and nobody should treat it as destiny, but it does mean the Rays have already solved this environment once this year.
Pitching Matchup
Nick Martinez goes for Tampa Bay. Max Fried goes for New York, listed at 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (ERA is earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched, so lower is better, and 1.50 is excellent in a tiny sample). Starting pitching moves baseball prices more than any other single input. One man throws roughly a third to a half of his team's defensive innings and controls the pace of the whole night.
That is why a strong name on the mound can swing a moneyline by 30 or 40 cents on its own. The flip side: a short sample of one win and one low ERA figure is not a season of evidence, and the market may be paying full freight for a reputation rather than a workload.
The Numbers
Start with the moneyline, which is just picking the outright winner. New York is -156, meaning you risk $156 to win $100. Tampa Bay is +153, meaning $100 risked returns $153 in profit. Both best prices are at Novig. The run line is baseball's spread: Tampa Bay +1.5 at -150 means the Rays can lose by exactly one run and you still cash, which is why it costs more than even money.
New York -1.5 at +144 requires the Yankees to win by two or more. The total is 7, meaning the books expect roughly seven combined runs, and you pick over (-114 at ProphetX) or under (+110 at ProphetX). Shop those prices. The same bet at a worse book quietly eats your margin.
Conditions & Injuries
Yankee Stadium, 62 degrees, a 9 mph breeze. Cool, calm, nothing that screams run-scoring environment. New York is without Aaron Judge (10-day IL), Fernando Cruz (60-day IL) and Clarke Schmidt (15-day IL). Losing Judge from a lineup is not a small subtraction at any price. Tampa Bay has Griffin Jax day-to-day, with Gavin Lux and Edwin Uceta on the 60-day IL.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees FAQ
Who is favored in Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees?
New York Yankees is the market favorite at -156 (best price at Novig) on the moneyline, with Tampa Bay Rays at +153. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Are these Wise Guy Team picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown - our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value?
Expected value first - the best price across the books versus the true fair price - then sharp-money confirmation from the betting splits. EV-primary, sharp-confirmed.
What is the total (over/under) for Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees?
The total is 7, with the over priced at -114 at ProphetX and the under at +110 at ProphetX. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
