📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Seattle MarinersNew York Yankees
Last 5 games (newest first)
Seattle MarinersLLLLL
New York YankeesWWLWWRuns scored vs allowed, last 5
Seattle Mariners10 for · 23 against New York Yankees23 for · 14 against Pregame chance to win, per the betting market
Pregame chance to win, per ESPN's computer model
Standings & streak
Seattle Mariners3rd AL West · 5.5 GB · L6 New York Yankees2nd AL East · 6 GB · W2 How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, so it is the market's honest opinion. When that number and ESPN's model disagree, one of them is wrong, and that gap is where value lives.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A
moneyline bet is picking who wins the game, nothing else. In this game, +126 means a $100 bet profits $126 if it wins. -135 means you risk $135 to profit $100, that's the favorite. The
run line is baseball's point spread, almost always 1.5 runs. The
total is a bet on combined runs by both teams, over or under the books' number.
+EV (positive expected value) means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (the line with the vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn the full system free:
Sports Betting 101 ·
Think Like the Book ·
Odds converter ·
No-vig calculator
A Cold Team Walks Into a Hot Building
The Mariners arrive at Yankee Stadium on a six game losing streak, and the schedule offers no mercy. Waiting for them is a Yankees team that has won four of five and hands the ball to its best starter. Seattle counters with a quality arm of its own in Logan Gilbert, which is the one thing keeping this from looking like a mismatch on paper. The question is whether the prices on the board actually reward you for backing either side.
The Matchup
New York is 68-52, sitting second in the AL East, six games back, and riding a two game win streak. Over their last five they have outscored opponents 23 to 14. Seattle is 56-65, third in the AL West and 5.5 games out, and the recent form is ugly: five straight losses in their last five, scoring just 10 runs while allowing 23, part of that six game skid. The Yankees have also won both meetings between these teams this season, so the head to head record points the same direction as the form.
Pitching Matchup
Starting pitchers matter more in baseball betting than any single player in any other sport, because they touch every plate appearance for five to seven innings. New York starts Max Fried, who is 4-3 with a 2.88 ERA (earned run average, the runs a pitcher allows per nine innings, lower is better). Seattle sends Logan Gilbert, 8-7 with a 3.42 ERA. Both numbers are strong. Fried's is simply stronger, and he pitches in front of the hotter offense.
The Numbers
On the moneyline (the simplest bet, just picking who wins), the Yankees are -135 at DraftKings, meaning you risk $135 to win $100. Seattle is +126 at FanDuel, meaning a $100 bet returns $126 in profit if the Mariners pull the upset. The run line is baseball's point spread: Yankees -1.5 at +155 (FanDuel) asks New York to win by two or more, while Mariners +1.5 at -170 (Caesars) cashes if Seattle wins or loses by exactly one.
The total is 7.5, so books expect roughly seven or eight combined runs; you bet whether the real number lands over or under it, with the Over at -112 (FanDuel) and the Under at -102 (BetMGM). Notice those prices come from four different books. That is line shopping, comparing every sportsbook and taking the best number, and it is the single biggest edge a bettor controls.
Conditions & Injuries
Game time conditions at Yankee Stadium are 85 degrees with a 10 mph wind, warm enough to help the ball carry a bit. New York is without Cody Bellinger (10 day injured list), plus Kervin Castro and Carlos Rodon (both 15 day IL). Seattle is missing shortstop J.P. Crawford (10 day IL), with Cole Young and Gabe Speier day to day. Losing Crawford stings an offense that has managed just 10 runs in five games.
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Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees FAQ
Who is favored in Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees?
New York Yankees is the market favorite at -135 (best price at DraftKings) on the moneyline, with Seattle Mariners at +126. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Are these Wise Guy Team picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown - our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value?
Expected value first - the best price across the books versus the true fair price - then sharp-money confirmation from the betting splits. EV-primary, sharp-confirmed.
What is the total (over/under) for Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees?
The total is 7.5, with the over priced at -112 at FanDuel and the under at -102 at BetMGM. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
