📊 Team Breakdown archived pregame data
Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers
Last 5 games (newest first)
Pittsburgh PiratesLWWLL
Los Angeles DodgersWWWWWRuns scored vs allowed, last 5
Pittsburgh Pirates20 for · 21 against Los Angeles Dodgers33 for · 22 against Pregame chance to win, per the betting market
Pregame chance to win, per ESPN's computer model
Standings & streak
Pittsburgh Pirates4th NL Central · 18.5 GB · L2 Los Angeles Dodgers1st NL West · W5 How to read this: "chance to win per the betting market" comes from the actual odds with the sportsbook's built-in fee (the vig) stripped out, so it is the market's honest opinion. When that number and ESPN's model disagree, one of them is wrong, and that gap is where value lives.
📘 New to betting? Two-minute translation. A
moneyline bet is picking who wins the game, nothing else. In this game, +250 means a $100 bet profits $250 if it wins. -270 means you risk $270 to profit $100, that's the favorite. The
run line is baseball's point spread, almost always 1.5 runs. The
total is a bet on combined runs by both teams, over or under the books' number.
+EV (positive expected value) means the price pays better than the market-implied fair odds (the line with the vig removed); consistently taking better prices raises your expected return over time. Learn the full system free:
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Odds converter ·
No-vig calculator
Sunday in Chavez Ravine
The hottest team in the National League West hosts a club just trying to finish the season with dignity. Los Angeles has won five straight. Pittsburgh has lost two straight and sits 18.5 games out of first. On paper this looks lopsided, and the betting market agrees. But lopsided games are exactly where careless bettors lose money, because the question is never who is better. It is whether the price attached to each team is fair. That is what we are here to figure out.
The Matchup
The Dodgers are 79-51 and leading the NL West, riding a five-game win streak in which they scored 33 runs and allowed 22. The Pirates are 63-68, fourth in the NL Central, and went 2-3 over their last five while scoring 20 and allowing 21. Los Angeles has also won both prior meetings this season, so the season series sits 2-0 in their favor. Every surface-level signal favors the home team. The market has priced all of that in, which matters for what comes later.
Pitching Matchup
Starting pitchers drive baseball odds more than any other single factor, because one player touches the ball on every pitch for the first five or six innings. Los Angeles sends out Blake Snell, who is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA (earned run average, roughly how many runs a pitcher allows per nine innings). Pittsburgh counters with Lake Bachar, 1-2 with a 3.75 ERA. Notice something: those numbers are nearly identical. The gap in this game's pricing comes from the lineups and the standings, not from a mismatch on the mound. When the starters are this close, big favorites deserve extra scrutiny.
The Numbers
The Dodgers are -270 on the moneyline at FanDuel (a moneyline bet is simply picking who wins; at -270 you risk $270 to win $100). The Pirates are +250 at DraftKings, meaning a $100 bet returns $250 in profit if Pittsburgh wins. On the run line, which is baseball's version of a point spread set at 1.5 runs, the Dodgers are -1.5 at -122 on FanDuel (they must win by 2 or more) and the Pirates are +1.5 at +108 on DraftKings (they cash by winning outright or losing by exactly 1).
The total is 8.5: books expect about 8 or 9 combined runs, and you bet whether the real number lands over or under it. The over is +100 at Fanatics and the under is -112 at BetRivers. Note that every one of those best prices sits at a different sportsbook. Shopping lines across books is the single easiest edge in this business.
Conditions & Injuries
It is a hot one at Dodger Stadium, 94 degrees with a 9 mph wind, and heat generally helps the ball carry. Los Angeles is without Ben Casparius, Tyler Glasnow, and Bobby Miller, all on the 60-day injured list, which thins their pitching depth behind Snell. Pittsburgh is missing Endy Rodriguez, Ryan O'Hearn, and Konnor Griffin, which trims their lineup options.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers FAQ
Who is favored in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers?
Los Angeles Dodgers is the market favorite at -270 (best price at FanDuel) on the moneyline, with Pittsburgh Pirates at +250. Lines move all day, so check the odds table on this page for the current best number at every book.
Are these Wise Guy Team picks free?
Yes. This is a free Wise Guy Desk breakdown - our analysis, not Ross's official plays. Ross's documented plays are bet with real money and graded win or loss on the members board.
How does the Wise Guy Desk find value?
Expected value first - the best price across the books versus the true fair price - then sharp-money confirmation from the betting splits. EV-primary, sharp-confirmed.
What is the total (over/under) for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers?
The total is 8.5, with the over priced at +100 at Fanatics and the under at -112 at BetRivers. A total is a bet on the combined score of both teams, over or under that number, no matter who wins.
